World Series contender tiers: How far away from winning it all is your favorite MLB team?

Only one team will win a ring this year. Can anybody beat L.A.? And who will emerge in 2026, 2027, 2028 ...?

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On Opening Day, everyone begins at zero. Thirty teams all angling for the same thing: the pileup on the field after the last out in a World Series clincher. In a just universe, this would mean each of the 30 franchises would own a 1-in-30 shot at earning that celebration.

That's a 3.3% chance. Alas, the sports universe is not just and the realistic odds from team to team vary a great deal.



As we do every season, we're focused on the odds in that category -- title probability -- at the outset of the season, using those forecasts to slot teams into World Series tiers. Last season ended with the preseason Tier 1 Los Angeles Dodgers beating the Tier 2 New York Yankees . In 2023 , it was the Tier 3 Texas Rangers topping the Tier 4 Arizona Diamondbacks .

Could this be the year a team emerges from Tier 5 to win it all? Maybe not, but these results show that the system yields a forecast, not an immutable destiny. Where does your team stand in the pecking order for 2025 World Series hopefuls? Continue reading this article and more from top writers, for only $11.99/mo.

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