1 week Ago
With another two regulation wins under their belts, the Montreal Canadiens’ playoff odds jumped to 89 percent on Monday morning. With Montreal firming up its standing as the eighth seed, the playoff picture is taking shape in the East. Within those eight teams, teams are still jostling for position.
All three Atlantic seeds are in flux, and the Senators are even pushing to jump from wild-card standing to divisional slots. As those teams vie for pivotal points down the stretch, it is time to start setting the stage for the playoffs. Advertisement Every playoff contender has strengths that got them here and should give them hope in the postseason.
But with the good comes the bad; there is at least one reason for concern for every Stanley Cup hopeful that could hold them back this spring. Atlantic Division Reasons for hope: The Leafs are going to be a tough team to score against in the playoffs. Toronto has shifted its playing style under Craig Berube, opting for more dump-and-chase play, a tight defensive structure and a heavier, more hard-nosed identity that should theoretically translate better to playoff hockey.
Toronto boasts three high-end shutdown defensemen in Chris Tanev, Jake McCabe and Brandon Carlo, and has received excellent goaltending from Anthony Stolarz, whose .922 save percentage ranks second-best in the NHL. The Leafs have surrendered just 2.
1 goals against per 60 at five-on-five this season, which ranks fifth-best in the NHL. Combine that stout defensive structure and above-average goaltending with offensive stars up front and the best power play in the NHL since Feb. 1, and you have a compelling recipe for potential playoff success.
Mitch Marner’s clutch play for Team Canada in the pressure-cooker environment of the 4 Nations Face-Off also provides hope that he can finally break through on the big stage. Reasons for concern: The Leafs’ best players tend to fade come playoff time. And when that happens, the team’s overall scoring dries up completely because they lack secondary contributors who can step up.
It’s the same potential issue this year: Marner, William Nylander, John Tavares, Matthew Knies, Auston Matthews and Bobby McMann have combined to score 72 percent of the Leafs’ total goals this season. If the big guns go quiet, Toronto is cooked offensively, especially since they generate fewer shots and scoring chances as a team under Berube’s low-event system. Advertisement Matthews in particular hasn’t looked 100 percent physically this year and it’s hindered his production — he’s potted 30 goals in 61 games, which is a far cry from 69 goals in 2023-24.
They need him playing at an MVP level again. Finally, while Stolarz has been terrific this year, he’s never started an NHL playoff game in his career. We’ll see how he fares under that pressure.
Reasons for hope: Tampa boasts one of the most terrifying top-six forward groups in the NHL. Nikita Kucherov, Brayden Point and Jake Guentzel are a nearly unstoppable trio, while Brandon Hagel and Anthony Cirelli are the backbone for one of the best second lines in the league. Andrei Vasilevskiy has been lights-out over the last few months, notching a .
929 save percentage over his last 33 games. Few teams have the luxury of elite goaltending like Tampa does. The Lightning are excellent on special teams, ranking top 10 in the NHL on both the power play and penalty kill.
Ryan McDonagh’s offseason acquisition has restabilized the top-four blue line and the team’s overall defensive structure. Speaking of upgrades, Yanni Gourde (10 points in 15 games and strong two-way metrics) and Oliver Bjorkstrand have beefed up the club’s forward depth, previously their biggest weakness. The Lightning are revitalized and look far closer to a Cup contender than last year’s team, which had major flaws and holes.
Reasons for concern: They’re staring at a Round 1 matchup against the defending Stanley Cup champion Florida Panthers. Tampa is much better equipped to hang with Florida compared to last year, but this series would be a nasty, grueling battle. Even if they beat the Panthers, the wear and tear of that series could catch up with them later in the playoffs, especially since this is an older core.
Advertisement The Lightning’s group of blueliners also aren’t the most mobile bunch. How will they fare breaking the puck out against aggressive, heavy-forechecking teams like the Panthers and even the Berube-led Leafs? If Tampa’s defensemen struggle on zone exits, it could hinder their top forwards’ ability to produce. Finally, while Gourde and Bjorkstrand have upgraded the depth, this is still a relatively top-heavy forward group.
Reasons for hope: It’s easy to understand why the Panthers won the Cup last year and made it to the Final in 2023. When healthy, Florida has one of the best forward groups in the NHL, led by Aleksander Barkov, Sam Reinhart, Matthew Tkachuk, Brad Marchand, Carter Verhaeghe, Sam Bennett and Anton Lundell. It’s a near-perfect blend of dynamic offensive skill, high-end defensive chops and a heavy, physical makeup.
Paul Maurice has helped Florida forge an identity and playing style that’s perfectly suited to the postseason. The Panthers have arguably the best forecheck in the league, are elite defensively, beat teams up physically and find ways to manufacture offense from the slot even when time and space are hard to come by. The Panthers are dominant at controlling play, ranking second-best in the league at controlling five-on-five shot attempts and expected goals this season.
This team has a daunting combination of talent, championship pedigree and a system that’s unlocked exceptional play-controlling results. Reasons for concern: The Panthers are limping into the playoffs. They’re 5-8-1 since the trade deadline, which is by far the worst record of any team in a playoff spot.
Injury context obviously matters. Florida has been decimated by absences to key players, with Tkachuk, Barkov, Aaron Ekblad (due to suspension) and Dmitry Kulikov, among others, all missing time lately. The Panthers will get their top players back for Round 1, but it isn’t always easy to flip a switch and immediately play your best, most dominant hockey.
If their returning players show rust, it could put them behind the eight ball against a stacked Lightning team, assuming they play Tampa in the first round. Advertisement Verhaeghe, who’s been snakebitten and scored just 17 goals this year, must return to being a high-end force in the top six come playoff time. Lastly, will the physical toll of back-to-back Finals appearances cause the Panthers to eventually run out of gas at some point this spring? Metropolitan Division Reason for hope: Coaching plays a key role in the Capitals’ success.
Spencer Carbery did a lot with a little last year, and with big offseason reinforcements, he has helped revitalize this team into a real playoff contender. The Capitals may not have the big guns to stack up to the league’s best, but their balance is a major asset. Dylan Strome and Alex Ovechkin form a high-scoring tandem on the top line, while Pierre-Luc Dubois is the second-line center this team craved.
A healthy Tom Wilson has rebounded in a big way on both ends of the ice. And the most recent addition, Ryan Leonard, joined at the right time with Aliaksei Protas’ recent injury. The team’s depth extends to the blue line, with John Carlson leading the way.
Rasmus Sandin has grown into a top-four role, Matt Roy is a steady shutdown presence and the coaches have found a way to maximize Jakob Chychrun’s high-end offense in the proper usage. This defense excels at retrieving pucks and breaking out with control, which helps the Capitals control pace at five-on-five. Reason for concern: Goaltending was a strength all season, but Logan Thompson’s injury status is one reason for worry — especially since his game was trending in the wrong direction leading up to his injury.
While Charlie Lindgren has the chops to be the 1A, he hasn’t found last year’s magic yet. If the goaltending doesn’t stabilize, the Capitals will have to keep outscoring their problems. The team has managed to do that at five-on-five, which has helped compensate for a somewhat underwhelming power play.
But an elevated shooting percentage is something to keep an eye on — the Ovechkin-led Caps have the finishing talent to outscore expectations, but usually, what goes up eventually does come down. Advertisement Barring a massive upset, the Capitals should be able to at least reach Round 2. But can that balanced attack take them further than that? Reason for hope: No other team’s system has moved beyond a strategy to become its identity.
The strength of the Hurricanes’ system has shined this year despite a lot of roster turnover since last spring. It’s a driving force behind the team’s five-on-five success, which has been especially impressive since the trade deadline. The Canes have rocked a 55 percent expected goal rate over the last 16 games.
Carolina’s shot suppression is top-notch, led by Jaccob Slavin on the back end with shutdown forwards up and down the lineup. This team creates more shot volume than anyone else in the league. Unlike last year, this group is doing a better job driving to the middle of the ice, pushing their expected goal generation to the best in the league.
While the forecheck is the cornerstone of their success, the Hurricanes have included more rush chances into their attack to add dimension thanks to the efforts of players like Seth Jarvis and Sebastian Aho, whose disruptive offense extends to short-handed situations. While the Canes’ big swing for Mikko Rantanen didn’t work out as expected, this team still made a few moves to bolster this lineup. Taylor Hall has been a strong fit in the middle six, while Logan Stankoven has a ton of long-term potential.
Mark Jankowski has helped strengthen the team’s fourth-line depth behind the Jordan Staal line. This team is well-positioned to contend for years to come. Reason for concern: Carolina may be playing the long game, but the pressure is rising to go on a deep run after some disappointing early exits.
For all the offense this team creates, one lingering issue haunts them year to year: The Hurricanes don’t have enough finish. It may seem like a tired narrative at this point, but the Canes have scored 25 goals fewer than expected based on their shot quality; that’s the fourth-highest in the league, behind only Nashville, Florida and Calgary. Goal support at five-on-five is pivotal for a team that 1) isn’t dangerous enough on the power play and 2) doesn’t have the most reliable goaltending tandem.
Both goalies have fine numbers, but Frederik Andersen’s durability is a concern while Pyotr Kochetkov has struggled over this last stretch of play. Advertisement Reason for hope: The Devils have managed to power through despite a number of key injuries. Nico Hischier is one of the best two-way forwards in the league, thriving in matchup minutes against the opponents’ best.
Jesper Bratt is scoring at a career-high rate thanks to his elite playmaking ability. Luke Hughes has adjusted to an expanded workload and has picked up the pace on the back end, too. While the team has endured rough stretches this season, the Devils are trending in the right direction again.
The Devils’ power play is dangerous, and their two-way game has improved under Sheldon Keefe. Thanks to an improved forecheck, they have a more balanced attack than they did in their last postseason appearance in 2023. That should help them in a likely Round 1 meeting with the Hurricanes after falling short to Carolina last time.
And this time, the team has more reliable goaltending. Jacob Markstrom is getting back on track after returning from injury; he now has four quality starts in his last five outings. Reason for concern : The Devils are going into the postseason without some of their best players.
That starts with Jack Hughes, whose two-way game took strides under Keefe this season. On the back end, the team is missing Dougie Hamilton and Jonas Siegenthaler. Hamilton is skating again, but there is no certainty on when (or if) he will return this spring.
It’s unlikely the Devils will have Siegenthaler’s shutdown presence since he reportedly hasn’t even put skates on since his injury. The Devils have weathered major absences in the regular season, but the playoffs are a different animal. Without some of its best players, New Jersey could be exposed to the same Hurricanes team that ended its playoff hopes a couple years ago.
Wild card Reasons for hope: The Senators have been a solid team all year, but they’re catching fire at the perfect time, too. Ottawa’s 13-4-2 record since March 1 is the best in the Eastern Conference. That included a couple of impressive victories last week against the Lightning and Panthers despite missing Brady Tkachuk.
Travis Green has helped lead a dramatic defensive glow-up in Canada’s capital this season. The Senators are a responsible, structured team in their own end. Their top-four blue line is a strength, with Jake Sanderson emerging as one of the game’s best defensemen and Thomas Chabot and newcomer Nick Jensen forming an above-average second pair.
Linus Ullmark’s sturdy play in net is a major plus. Advertisement Ottawa’s second and third lines are rounding into promising form. Dylan Cozens, David Perron, Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto and Michael Amadio have each scored at least 10 points in their last 19 games.
That’s impressive depth to have behind the first line. Reasons for concern: The Sens lack the game-breaking superstar forwards Tampa, Florida and Toronto can flex. Tim Stützle and Brady Tkachuk are terrific players, but Ottawa is the only playoff team in the Atlantic that doesn’t have a single point-per-game-or-better forward.
That disadvantage is a moot point if the Leafs stars no-show in a Battle of Ontario, but at some point in the postseason, especially against more battle-tested opponents, you’d expect the elite forward skill deficit to show. The Senators have found offensive success lately, but for large chunks of the season, they’ve struggled to score. They rank 20th in the NHL in goals scored per game for 2024-25 — Minnesota is the only playoff team to score less.
This is a good team that’s getting hot at the right time, so they have a very real chance to upset somebody in Round 1, but we’re not sure they profile as a true Cup contender yet, which is understandable because this is the first year they’ve successfully emerged out of their rebuild. Reason for hope: The Canadiens got hot at the right time and have taken advantage of a weak wild-card race. Montreal has surged up the standings since the 4 Nations, bringing its playoff chances up from 2 percent to 89 heading into Monday night’s matchups.
And that turnaround is thanks to franchise cornerstones who will lead this next window of contention. Nick Suzuki has ice in his veins. His two-way game in all situations, playmaking and clutch scoring have led the way, especially since the 4 Nations break.
And he is getting a lot of support from high-end wingers Cole Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky in a first-line combination. Together, they have a 56 percent expected goal rate and a 19-7 scoring advantage since returning to play. Veterans, like the Brendan Gallagher line, support those up-and-coming forwards.
A young star, Lane Hutson, is leading the way on the back end, too. Hutson has an elite offensive ceiling and is progressing defensively in meaningful games. Kaiden Guhle and Jayden Struble have also developed on the back end.
Pair that with Sam Montembeault giving his team a chance to win most nights, and there is a lot to like about Montreal. Advertisement Reason for concern : Despite an impressive turnaround over the last month and a half, this team may not be ready to do damage in the postseason. There are still a lot of defensive warts to work out for a team that can get trapped in its own zone.
The Canadiens don’t retrieve enough pucks to turn defense into offense, and those gaps extend to the penalty kill. The difference between Montreal and most other teams in the playoff picture is that this team solidifying its standing as the eighth seed makes this season a success regardless of what happens next. It was a key step in rebuilding and will help season the young guns.
Data via Evolving-Hockey , HockeyViz , HockeyStatCards , All Three Zones and Natural Stat Trick . This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers. (Top photo of Nick Suzuki and Sam Reinhart: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images).
