Why first movers don’t always win — what truly creates an outlier

Can outliers truly outlast the competition, or are they just the opening act? What happens when hunger and adaptability take the lead in the race for relevance? Corporate advisor Srinath Sridharan and management consultant Srikrishnan Srinivasan dive into the real secret behind what makes an outlier.

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What is an outlier? A distant dot in a graph with imagined axes, dreamt up by commentators and analysts making sense of the world of doers? A figure of inspiration to which the rest aspire? A beacon of hope for millions seeking to emulate their excellence, industry, and longevity? Share Market View All Nifty Gainers View All Company Value Change %Change All of this and more, we’d argue. But how often is the outlier, across any sector, the first-mover? First-movers often begin as rebels—misunderstood, scoffed at, and dismissed. They challenge conventions, provoke discomfort, and force the world to re-examine its boundaries.

Initially, the world fails to grasp their significance, only to wake up much later to their genius. Ironically, they themselves often scoff at the world, frustrated by its inability to understand their vision. From innovators to creators, they are frequently labelled eccentric, maverick, or even egoistic.



But brilliance comes at a price, and history shows that first-movers don’t always outlast the very world they disrupt. So what makes a first-mover an outlier who not only changes the rules of the game, but also goes on to rule the roost for decades? What is the secret sauce that allows for endless reinvention, fortitude, and the ability to capture the imagination of the world repeatedly? Does it even happen often? Apple vs BlackBerry Every industry offers examples. Apple was once ridiculed for its niche products, yet today it’s a global force.

But Apple succeeded not only because of Steve Jobs’ vision but also due to its ability to scale, adapt, and maintain relevance. Compare this to BlackBerry, another outlier that revolutionised mobile communications but faltered when it failed to innovate beyond its initial brilliance. The difference? Hunger.

While Apple retained its hunger to evolve, BlackBerry rested on its laurels. In many spheres, it’s not the trailblazing first movers but the determined second movers who truly dominate. Consider Facebook, which wasn’t the first social network but outmanoeuvred MySpace with its relentless hunger to grow.

Similarly, Microsoft didn’t invent operating systems or productivity software but refined and scaled them to unparalleled heights. Second movers often have a clarity of purpose and an urgency to outgrow the innovators who came before them. This relentless drive sets them apart.

Kodak and Nokia The business world offers countless reminders of this truth. Kodak invented digital photography but dismissed it, clinging to its profitable film business. Nokia dominated mobile phones but underestimated the smartphone revolution.

These outliers led their fields but lost the momentum to sustain their position. Outliers, by definition, challenge norms, but challenging norms alone doesn’t guarantee survival. The hunger to adapt and outpace the competition is crucial.

In India, Dhirubhai Ambani and JRD Tata created institutions of enduring value because they grasped the value of both trailblazing and managing the blaze shrewdly. How many of our Unicorn founders will claim this legacy in the decades to come? Time will tell. Even in finance, where strategy and patience often reign, the story is similar.

Warren Buffett has been an extraordinary outlier, but his consistency lies in his ability to adapt his investment philosophy to changing economic climates. Yet, many hedge fund managers who once seemed invincible faltered because they failed to evolve. The markets are unforgiving to those who lose their edge.

Hunger for excellence Sports provide a fascinating dichotomy. Outliers like Serena Williams and Roger Federer have endured because of their ability to adapt their games and maintain a ferocious hunger for excellence. But how many others with immense talent have faded because they couldn’t sustain the same drive? Talent may set initial-outliers apart, but hunger determines how far they go to join the ranks of truly legendary ones.

Another ready example closer to our shores is the case of the immensely talented youngsters who set a record partnership in their teenage, but went on to become Vinod Kambli and Sachin Tendulkar. Neither first-movers, really, in a world that had already seen Viv Richards. One ended up as the undisputed king of virtually every batting record there exists, an outlier in every sense of the word; the other, well, exists.

The difference: insatiable hunger, drive, and astronomical levels of work ethic. The same patterns emerge in technology. Outliers like Tesla disrupted the automotive industry, but the story of its endurance is still unfolding.

Elon Musk’s relentless ambition keeps Tesla in the game, but the company faces a rapidly evolving competitive landscape. Hunger, not just innovation, will decide its future. The history of tech is littered with faux-outliers like Netscape or Yahoo, whose early brilliance couldn’t withstand the pace of change.

Shifting societal norms Culturally, the phenomenon is no different. The Harry Potter franchise was an outlier that redefined storytelling for an entire generation. Yet, its creator, J.

K. Rowling, ensured its longevity by continuously expanding the universe. Contrast this with countless literary sensations that made a splash only to fade into obscurity.

Cultural outliers must not only captivate audiences but also sustain their relevance in the face of shifting societal norms. So, do first-movers always outlast others to become lasting outliers? The answer is a resounding no. Well-begun may be half done, but there’s a world of difference between half and full.

All of humanity may wake up to their brilliance, but brilliance alone is fleeting and memories run short. Without hunger, momentum, and adaptability, even the most dazzling mavericks risk becoming relics. It is the second movers, the challengers, who often rise to the top, fuelled by an insatiable drive to grow.

Pioneers start by defying the world, but their survival depends on how they engage with it. To outlast, they must evolve—not merely as disruptors but as masters of reinvention. Hunger must not wane, for in the relentless race of relevance, it’s not just about who shines first but who burns brightest, longest, and with purpose.

The visionaries may light the torch, but it’s the hungry who run the marathon—and history only remembers the ones who cross the finish line. It may be, to quote Keynes, that in the long run we are all dead. But the outliers can rest a little more peacefully, knowing that they’ve made the world a better place for those that came after them.

— The authors; Dr. Srinath Sridharan ( @ssmumbai), is a Corporate advisor & Independent Director on Corporate Boards, and Srikrishnan Srinivasan i s a Management Consultant. The views expressed are personal.

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