Why does Duterte’s war on drugs continue to divide the Philippines?

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rapplerAds.displayAd( "mobile-middle-1" );In 2016, Rodrigo Duterte was catapulted from the Mayor’s Office in Davao City to Malacañang. Duterte promised to expand the war on drugs, a policy of extrajudicial killings with around 1,4000 casualties during his 22 years as mayor, on a national scale in his final campaign rally: “If I make it to the presidential Palace, I will do just what I did as mayor.



You drug pushers, hold-up men and do-nothings, you better go out. Because I’d kill you. I’ll dump all of you into Manila Bay, and fatten all the fish there.

”Data on the first 16 months of the Duterte administration shows just how the former president made good on his promise. The Ateneo Policy Center (APC) was one of the first to track publicly-available information on the casualties of the anti-drug campaign. The victim-level dataset spans recorded killings from May 10, 2016 (after Duterte’s electoral victory) to September 29, 2017.

It is not an exhaustive list but presents only the barest minimum estimate since deaths are only documented if they are reported by verified media, due to violent means, and an explicit link to drugs is mentioned. A total of 5,021 deaths were recorded. [WATCH] ICYMI: Former president Rodrigo Duterte’s admissions at the Senate drug war hearing Duterte’s war on drugs or a war against the poor?The deadliest months recorded were the first three after Duterte was sworn into the presidency (July to September 2016).

From June to August 2016, there was also a rise in “body dump” cases. Bodies were found in various parts of the country, mostly unidentified or not residents of these communities. These were bound, gagged, or wrapped in packaging tape, and had signboards claiming that they were drug dealers.

Of the 355 cases of body dumps, news reports stated that 45% had gunshot wounds, 37% were gagged, 35% were bound, 12% exhibited stab wounds, and 11% were stuffed in a sack or wrapped in cloth. Most were committed by unidentified assailants outside the scope of Duterte’s police operations — showing how the anti-drug campaign has extended to vigilante action. Killings started dropping in January 2017 due to the temporary suspension of Oplan Tokhang.

A second major surge occurred in August 2017. The peak happened exactly on August 15, 2017 with 49 confirmed victims resulting from police operations. On that same day, Kian delos Santos was killed in a police operation in Caloocan City.

His death provided stark evidence against the nanlaban narrative of Oplan Tokhang. CCTV footage in the area showed how his 17-year-old body was dragged away from his home despite his pleas. A quick profile of the victims would show that the targets of the war on drugs are the poor with most being males, residing in urban poor locations, unemployed, or in low-paying and low-skilled occupations.

55% of the killings or 2,753 deaths were attributed to police operations. Police officials interviewed by the media echo the same nanlaban narrative promoted by Duterte during his term as mayor. Seven out of 10 times, they claimed that they acted in self-defense because the suspect resisted arrest.

76% of the reports also claimed the presence of guns during the confrontation. window.rapplerAds.

displayAd( "middle-2" );window.rapplerAds.displayAd( "mobile-middle-2" );Human rights groups strongly dispute this narrative.

Forensic examinations show that gunshot wounds indicate an intent to kill, and succeeding findings found irregularities in death certificates. In the 2024 Senate probe, Duterte himself admitted to promoting the nanlaban narrative as justification for the killings of suspects. This “admission,” done under oath, could have possibly expedited the investigation of the International Criminal Court.

A punitive Filipino majorityMany Filipinos did not find anything wrong with the war on drugs. For the Duterte Diehard Supporters, the killings were necessary to save the country from drugs and criminality. To them, “drug addicts” were beyond redemption.

Further, a systematic troll army amplified support for Oplan Tokhang and harassed those who dared criticize the policy. Photos of the body dump victims went viral as a spectacle of public humiliation and violence — demonstrating the appeal of Duterte’s populist rhetoric. Images of slaughtered bodies served to warn a population in fear.

But they also offered a sense of security for those who believed in the necessity for violence to eradicate threats to society. A 2024 research shows an underlying attitude of punitiveness among Filipinos that motivates support for the drug war and renders them vulnerable to populist rhetoric. The study, based on a survey by the Ateneo Policy Center in 2022, shows that those who have high levels of punitive attitudes and strong support for Duterte tend to support the war on drugs.

They also favor other severe punishments such as the death penalty and lowering of the minimum age for criminal responsibility, which were proposed for legislation during Duterte’s term. Although Filipinos are generally punitive, our research points to a small segment of the population that extremely supports violence for progress. They perceive themselves to be economically disadvantaged regardless of their actual economic condition, feel the least empowered, and most are from Mindanao.

Across all respondents, there is high trust in both formal courts (77%) and Tulfo justice (72%), a form of popular justice that adjudicates disputes in public. Although only 17% experienced victimization to crime in the past year, 73% still feel fear of becoming a victim of crimes. It is possible that this pathological sense of insecurity has made Filipinos lay their hopes on a populist leader like Duterte promising swift and decisive “justice.

”JUSTICE. Portraits of victims of drug war and extrajudicial killings are displayed at a church during a mass in Quezon City, following the arrest of former Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte, on March 11, 2025. The long road aheadFor Father Robert Reyes, Duterte’s ICC arrest is a form of poetic justice.

The Philippine National Police, whose integrity was damaged by the drug war, was the very institution that delivered Duterte to justice. Yet Duterte will be accorded due process, consisting of slow and deliberate steps that provide justice. He will be provided with all the means at his and the ICC’s disposal to prove his innocence as well as high quality medical and health care.

Currently, the former president is held at a hospital facility likened to a hotel. In stark contrast, the victims of the drug war faced torture and death with the reality for most of their final moments misrepresented by police reports. Healing of the nation — and healing of the Filipino psyche — will be a long road ahead as his allies continue to spread the narrative of a strongman leader and a continuing national struggle rooted in drugs.

In a country known for its religiosity, to the DDS, there is no redemption for drug addicts. While steps towards justice have begun on an international scale with this arrest, there remains a need to address the root causes of insecurity among Filipinos in order to confront the country’s vulnerability to populist penal measures. – Rappler.

comDr. Imelda Deinla is a senior lecturer at the School of Law, University of New England and a non-resident research fellow at the Ateneo Policy Center, School of Government, Ateneo de Manila University. Gaby Mendoza is a research associate and program coordinator at the Ateneo Policy Center, School of Government, Ateneo de Manila University.

The views expressed herein are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of Ateneo de Manila University..