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When Donald Trump on his plan to impose eye-watering tariffs on trading partners across the world, there was one key exception: . While the rest of the world would be on additional duties beyond the on all US trade partners, China would feel the squeeze even more. On April 9, 2025, Trump .
The move, in Trump's telling, was “lack of respect for global markets.” But the U.S.
president may well have been smarting from Beijing's apparent willingness to confront U.S. tariffs head on.
While many countries opted not to retaliate against Trump's now-delayed reciprocal tariff hikes, instead , Beijing took a different tack. It responded with swift and firm countermeasures. On April 11, China ” and against the U.
S. to 125%. The two economies are now locked in an all-out, high-intensity trade standoff.
And China is showing no signs of backing down. And as an expert on U.S.
-China relations, I wouldn't expect China to. Unlike the during Trump's initial term, when Beijing eagerly sought to negotiate with the U.S.
, China now holds far more leverage. Indeed, Beijing believes it can inflict at least as much damage on the U.S.
as vice versa, while at the same time expanding its global position. A changed calculus for China There's no doubt that the for – especially those in the coastal regions producing furniture, clothing, toys and home appliances for American consumers. But since Trump first launched a , a number of underlying economic factors have significantly shifted Beijing's calculus.
Crucially, the importance of the U.S. market to China's export-driven economy has declined significantly.
In 2018, at the start of the first trade war, U.S.-bound exports of China's total exports.
In 2023, that figure had . The tariffs may further prompt China to accelerate its “ ” strategy, unleashing the spending power of its consumers and strengthening its domestic economy. And while China entered the 2018 trade war in a phase of strong economic growth, the current situation is quite different.
Sluggish , and ” have pushed the Chinese economy into a period of persistent slowdown. Perhaps counterintuitively, this prolonged downturn may have made the Chinese economy more resilient to shocks. It has pushed businesses and policymakers to come to factor in the existing harsh economic realities, even before the impact of Trump's tariffs.
Trump's tariff policy against China may also allow Beijing a useful external scapegoat, allowing it to rally public sentiment and shift blame for the economic slowdown onto U.S. aggression.
China also understands that the U.S. cannot easily replace its dependency on Chinese goods, particularly through its supply chains.
While , many goods now imported from third countries still rely on Chinese-made components or raw materials. By 2022, the U.S.
for 532 key product categories – nearly four times the level in 2000 – while China's reliance on U.S. products was cut by half in the same period.
There's a related public opinion calculation: Rising tariffs are expected to , something that could stir discontent among American consumers, particularly blue-collar voters. Indeed, Beijing believes Trump's tariffs risk pushing the previously strong U.S.
economy . Potent tools for retaliation Alongside the changed economic environments, China also holds a number of strategic tools for retaliation against the U.S.
It dominates the global rare earth supply chain – critical to military and high-tech industries – of U.S. rare earth imports, by some estimates.
On March 4, China placed , followed by on April 9. Many were U.S.
defense contractors or high-tech firms reliant on rare earth elements for their products. China also retains the ability to target key U.S.
agricultural export sectors such as poultry and soybeans – industries heavily dependent on Chinese demand and concentrated in Republican-leaning states. China accounts for and of American poultry exports. On March 4, Beijing revoked import approvals for .
And on the tech side, many U.S. companies – such as Apple and Tesla – remain deeply tied to Chinese manufacturing.
Tariffs threaten to , something Beijing believes can be used as a source of leverage against the Trump administration. Already, Beijing is to strike back through regulatory pressure on U.S.
companies operating in China. Meanwhile, the fact that Elon Musk, a senior Trump insider who has , has is a particularly strong wedge that Beijing could yet exploit in an attempt to divide the Trump administration. A strategic opening for China? While Beijing thinks it can weather Trump's sweeping tariffs on a bilateral basis, it also believes the U.
S. broadside against its own trading partners has created a generational strategic opportunity to displace American hegemony. Close to home, this shift could significantly reshape the geopolitical landscape of East Asia.
Already on March 30 – after Trump had first raised tariffs on Beijing – China, Japan and South Korea in five years and pledged to advance a trilateral free trade agreement. The move was particularly remarkable given how carefully the U.S.
had worked to cultivate its Japanese and South Korean allies as part of its strategy to counter Chinese regional influence. From Beijing's perspective, Trump's actions offer an opportunity to directly erode U.S.
sway in the Indo-Pacific. Similarly, Trump's steep tariffs on Southeast Asian countries, which were also a during the Biden administration, may push those nations closer to China. Chinese state media announced on April 11 that President Xi Jinping to Vietnam, Malaysia and Cambodia from April 14-18, aiming to deepen “all-round cooperation” with neighboring countries.
Notably, all three Southeast Asian nations were targeted with now-paused – 49% on Cambodian goods, 46% on Vietnamese exports and 24% on products from Malaysia. Farther away from China lies an even more promising strategic opportunity. Trump's tariff strategy has already prompted China and officials from the European Union to contemplate strengthening their own , something that could weaken the transatlantic alliance that had sought to decouple from China.
On April 8, the president of the European Commission , during which both sides jointly condemned U.S. trade protectionism and advocated for free and open trade.
Coincidentally, on April 9, the day China , the EU also announced its first wave of retaliatory measures – imposing a on selected U.S. imports worth over €20 billion – but following Trump's 90-day pause.
Now, EU and Chinese officials are holding and considering a in China in July. Finally, China sees in Trump's tariff policy a potential . Widespread tariffs imposed on multiple countries have shaken investor confidence in the U.
S. economy, contributing to a . Traditionally, the dollar and U.
S. Treasury bonds have been viewed as haven assets, but . At the same time, steep tariffs have raised concerns about the , undermining trust in both the dollar and U.
S. Treasury. While Trump's tariffs will inevitably hurt parts of the Chinese economy, Beijing appears to have far more cards to play this time around.
It has the tools to inflict meaningful damage on U.S. interests – and perhaps more importantly, Trump's all-out tariff war is providing China with a rare and unprecedented strategic opportunity.
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