2 weeks Ago
Topline Former President Donald Trump and Vice President Kamala Harris are in a dead-heat race for the White House, according to polls of the national electorate and every battleground state—a scenario that could lead to a sweep for either candidate if polling errors from previous elections repeat. Key Facts What To Watch For There’s a chance that pollsters overcompensate to make up for the belief that Trump supporters are under-represented. Surprising Fact Statistician Nate Silver predicts either candidate has a 60% chance of winning at least six of several battlegrounds, he wrote in a piece for The New York Times , in which he predicts a win for Trump based on his gut instinct, but warns “50-50 is the only responsible forecast.
” Big Number 93%. That’s the share of national polls that overstated Biden’s support in 2020, according to Pew Research . Key Background Pollsters have taken steps to correct errors made in the 2016 and 2020 elections, including expanding polling methods to text and mail and making statistical adjustments for under-represented groups, The New York Times reported .
They also benefit from the availability of data on voting trends in previous elections, including who voted, how and party registration changes. The pandemic was also thought to be a factor in 2020 polling errors, as more Democrats followed protocols and stayed home than Republicans, making them available to answer polls, The New York Times noted . Contra Election-year polling isn’t always wrong—in 2008, the national polling average underestimated Obama’s win by less than one point, according to The Times.
Surveys on the 2022 midterms were more accurate than any cycle since at least 1998, according to Five Thirty Eight. Further Reading Presidential Polls Might Be Saving Face In Final Election Sprint—Here’s Why They Might Be Wrong (Forbes) Election 2024 Swing State Polls: Harris And Trump Virtually Tied In Battlegrounds—With Latest Polls Showing Harris Ahead Up North (Updated) (Forbes) Trump Vs. Harris 2024 Polls: Near-Tie In Latest HarrisX/Forbes Survey—Just Days Before Election (Forbes).
