Any time an NBA team makes or misses a potential game-winner, players and coaches quickly note that the contest's outcome wasn't decided by the final shot. And that's technically true, since all buckets count the same regardless when they tickle the twine. Still, there's something about that do-or-die scenario that gives these looks a significance that can, if the stakes are high enough, elevate a player's stature into an almost mythical atmosphere.
Robert Horry, for instance, probably shouldn't be a household name—he averaged an even 7.0 points across his 16-year career—but ask hoop heads about him, and they'll regale you with tales of the legendary "Big Shot Bob." Now, let's heighten the hypothetical stakes by pairing a last-second shot with the win-or-go-fishing stakes of a Game 7.
There is literally no bigger shot that a team can attempt. So, who gets the rock in those pressure-packed moments? That's the question we're out to tackle here by weighing everything from past production and future projections with play styles and hierarchical standings to determine which player would hoist these have-to-have-them shots for all 30 teams. *Two quick notes before getting started.
One, unless a player is officially out for the season, we'll assume that everyone on the roster is healthy and available to take this hypothetical shot. Two, we'll assume that every team—even the tank-driving bottom-feeders—would hold this Game 7 in this season. The Hawks have made a concerted effort to lighten the load shouldered by Trae Young.
His 16.8 shots per game are the fewest since his rookie season, while his 27.5 usage percentage is the lowest of his career.
This not only eases the burden but also helps foster the growth of Atlanta's budding young nucleus. Still, if time is dwindling, and the Hawks are in desperate need of a bucket, they're still putting the ball in his hands. With two minutes or less left on the clock and a single-score margin on the scoreboard, Young has paced the team in field-goal attempts (12), three-point attempts (six), free-throw attempts (12), assists (six) and turnovers (three).
In other words, they're living and dying with their lead guard—as they should. With in-the-gym shooting range, soft touch on his floater, handles to free himself and some of the best vision in the business (league-leading 12 assists per outing), his arsenal is perfectly equipped to navigate these major moments. The Celtics have constructed one of the Association's deepest rosters, so they should, in theory, have multiple places to turn when the game is on the line.
In reality, though, they are more than comfortable—and confident—with Jayson Tatum's ability to dominate these clutch scenarios. Tatum boasts a mammoth-sized 34 percent usage rate in the final two minutes of a single-score game. For context, the next closest rotation-regular is his All-Star running mate on the wings, Jaylen Brown, who's at 21.
1 percent. While the Shamrocks have skill players for days, Tatum's ability to create something out of nothing is clearly their best. He's a 95th-percentile isolation scorer , and that mark is even more impressive than it already sounds when considering he has the league's third-highest frequency of isolation plays.
If not for the self-imposed rule of only considering the 2024-25 season, it'd be tempting to list a blue-chip prospect from the 2025 draft, like Cooper Flagg, Ace Bailey or Dylan Harper. It's tough to tell when the Nets might participate in their next playoff series, but given that they are still in the demolition stage of their rebuild, it obviously won't be this season. Staying within the context of the 2024-25 campaign, though, it has to be Cam Thomas, right? He's the most natural bucket-getter on the roster, and while Cameron Johnson might be more efficient, Thomas boasts the bigger bag when it comes to both shot-creation and tough-shot-making.
Perhaps due to a dearth of alternatives, the Nets have made Thomas their top offensive option by a wide margin. If he played enough games to qualify—he missed a month-plus with a hamstring strain—he'd be tied for fifth overall in usage percentage with San Antonio Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama. Brandon Miller backers might disagree, but Charlotte's answer for late-game buckets is easy: It's LaMelo Ball by a country mile.
Healthier than he's been in a while—which still isn't fully healthy, but Hornets fans will take what they can get at this point—Ball has been tasked with a comically sized 39.1 usage percentage. That's not only tops in the league , it's on course to be the fourth-highest ever recorded (minimum 1,000 minutes).
Miller's game might be perpetually growing, but the sophomore swingman isn't seriously challenging Ball for primary-option duties yet. And it's entirely possible that will never happen, as Ball's deep shooting range, crafty handles and unique blend of size (6'7") and vision form an enviable skill set for an offensive engine. This was, admittedly, one of the trickier calls to make.
The Bulls are juggling a lot right now—showcasing Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević to drive up their trade value, integrating Josh Giddey and working a finally healthy ( and dunking! ) Lonzo Ball back into the mix—which has led to yet another role change for Coby White. Last season's runner-up for Most Improved Player, White has seen fewer minutes and fewer shots this time around. On a potentially related note, he has also seen his shooting rates backtrack from both the field (42.
1, down from 44.7) and from three (35.2, 37.
6). Still, it feels most beneficial for Chicago's future—which should absolutely be the focus—to put the ball in White's hands in these situations and let him create. LaVine and Vučević could be shipped out the second the Bulls find an interested suitor, while Giddey and Ball don't have the same scoring instincts—or skills.
Is there an argument to be made for Darius Garland here? In theory, sure. He has better shooting rates from all three levels, plus a wider gap between his assists and turnovers than Donovan Mitchell. Functionally, though, this is Mitchell's team.
He has the most stature around the Association and starting next season will have Cleveland's highest salary , too. Maybe those things shouldn't matter in these discussions, but hierarchies exist. Not to mention, Mitchell has a history of delivering under the spotlight , and the Cavs have already shown they want him controlling their biggest positions.
Things are pretty even in traditional clutch situations (final five minutes, scoring margin of five points or less) between Mitchell ( 24 shots ) and Garland (21), but trim that to the final two minutes of a single score game and Mitchell has attempted more field goals ( six to three ), threes (two to one) and free throws (seven to four). This was the hardest call to make of this entire exercise. And it should be.
When the Mavericks brought in Kyrie Irving to pair him with Luka Dončić, the idea was to have two elite shot-creators to not only initiate their offense, but also split the crunch-time duties. That led to some awkward moments early on when it wasn't clear who should in the driver's seat. The partnership has proven much more productive since, though the question of handling a Game 7 look remains unanswered.
This is, unquestionably, Dončić's team, but that doesn't necessarily mean he's the preferred shooter. Truth be told, this could be matchup-dependent or even reliant on whoever has the hotter hand that night, but in a vacuum, we're giving a slight edge to Irving. He's been the better shooter (by a not significant margin) from every level this season.
And he held those same advantages (albeit by smaller margins) last season. He also happens to have an NBA Finals Game 7 dagger on his resume, plus a slight edge ( 11 to seven ) this season in field goal attempts during the final two minutes of a single-score game. All due respect to Jamal Murray, who just burned fiery hot through the month of December, but there is no debate in Denver.
Nikola Jokić is already a three-time MVP who still has a chance to add to his hardware collection. He is, for now at least, the only reasonable answer to the best-player-on-the-planet debate. You could grab the best NBA2K players in the world, and they'd struggle to match numbers like his: 30.
7 points per game on 56.1/49.2/80.
1 shooting (not to mention 13 rebounds and 9.7 assists). Going any direction other than Jokić could put us or Nuggets coach Michael Malone in the unemployment line.
Not that Malone has anything to worry about, since he has smartly tasked the Joker with 21 shots in the final two minutes of a single-score game: eight more than Murray and 14 more than the next-closest Nugget (Christian Braun). If there was any debate to be had in Detroit, it might have been torpedoed by Jaden Ivey's unfortunate broken fibula. There is—rather improbably, at least in the eyes of those who saw the injury—still a chance Ivey could return at some point "depending on Detroit's play and potential postseason run," per ESPN's Shams Charania , but Cade Cunningham will have complete control of this offense until (or if ) that happens.
Not that Cunningham, who could be closing in on his first All-Star selection, was being seriously threatened for the top of the food chain in the Motor City. He was, however, being challenged for late-game looks by Ivey, who has gone 7-of-11 in the final two minutes of a single-score game, easily surpassing Cunningham's 2-of-10 showing. Having said that, Cunningham has had four assists and four turnovers in those situations; Ivey has had none of either.
That highlights how Cunningham has been the biggest driving force in Detroit's late-game offense. He may not always fire up the last-second look, but he'll be responsible for generating that shot for himself or a teammate. Does this need an explanation? Stephen Curry has a signature celebration exclusively used for late-game daggers.
That's about as cold-blooded in the clutch as it gets. For the sake of discussion, though, let's consider the Dubs' alternatives. On second thought.
..that's wholly unnecessary because they don't have any.
That's why they've been linked to any and every available (or even unavailable ) potential second star, an ongoing effort that has seen them do their "due diligence" on a list of notable players on the trade market, including Jimmy Butler, Brandon Ingram, Cameron Johnson, Zach LaVine, Nikola Vučević and Kyle Kuzma, per HoopsHype's Michael Scotto . Even if Golden State finds a second star for Curry, though, that player won't change its preferred late-game approach. Curry has attempted 12 shots this season in the final two minutes with a single-score margin; no other Warrior has taken more than three such shots.
Depending on how active (if at all) Houston gets at the trade deadline, this could have a different answer by season's end. The Rockets, who are stocked to their brim with young talent and draft picks, have been identified as "the runaway..
.team to watch when the next star becomes available," per ESPN's Tim Bontemps . Should Houston happen to snooze through trade season—the Rockets were reportedly uninterested "in breaking up their core" for Giannis Antetokounmpo earlier this season, per The Athletic's Kelly Iko —it has a couple of candidates for this exercise between Alperen Şengün, Fred VanVleet and, if he's particularly hot that night, Jalen Green.
All three, plus Dillon Brooks, have attempted between seven and 10 shots this season in the final two minutes of a single-score game. In a have-to-have-it Game 7 setting, though, we're betting on the Rockets going with Şengün, their clearest building block and a skilled 6'11" center who can score from the post, take slower bigs off the dribble, find open teammates and (sort of) stretch his shooting out to the perimeter. When Tyrese Haliburton came into the campaign amid a rough shooting slump even he couldn't figure out , the Pacers may have had reasons to question his place as their franchise centerpiece, let alone their preferred closer.
With their offensive machine seemingly back on track, though, those questions may have been silenced. Over his last 18 outings, he has upped his nightly output to 20.2 points and 9.
1 assists per game. Equally important, he has converted 49.6 percent of his field goals and 38.
9 percent of his threes. He looks, in other words, a lot like the player who had spent much of the past two seasons breathing new life into the Circle City. When his three-ball is falling, he is a scoring threat from the perimeter to the paint, and he's always a willing and able passer.
Indiana should feel—and has felt —perfectly comfortable with entrusting him to pilot its biggest offensive sets. So, in case anyone breezed past the intro, let's start with a reminder that in this exercise we are assuming good health for anyone who isn't officially shelved for the season. Still, it's worth reiterating the point that, as per usual, we need to attach the if-healthy asterisk to any Kawhi Leonard conversation.
Even at full strength, he might be less than a lock for L.A.'s last-second looks.
While this hasn't been James Harden's most efficient season by any stretch, he's still the primary conductor of a Clippers team that has exceeded expectations. And since he's so comfortable summoning something from nothing—no one isolates nearly as often —he'd get strong consideration for the chance to create Game 7 heroics. Still, a healthy Leonard more accurately resembles a true superstar.
While Harden last cracked an All-NBA roster in 2019-20, Leonard has been an All-NBA first- or second-teamer in four of his last five healthy seasons. He is the definition of a tough cover, never seeming rushed and always within his scoring range. He's also a two-time Finals MVP responsible for one of the most truly miraculous makes to close out a Game 7 in NBA history.
The Lakers have tackled a few projects this season, including prioritizing the baton-passing from LeBron James to Anthony Davis and furthering the development of Austin Reaves. Still, in many respects, L.A.
remains capable of going as far as James can lead it. The recently turned 40-year-old incredibly still paces the club in minutes, shots and assists. His control of the offense only grows stronger later in games.
He has nearly as many shots (14 to 19) and assists (five to six) as all of his teammates combined in the final two minutes of a single-score game. James, of course, has proven time and again he won't force the issue and defaults to making the proverbial right play even in the biggest moments. So, while it's possible he could opt to find an open teammate if the situation dictates that, he'd still be the one initiating last-second offense for the Lakers in a Game 7.
The Grizzlies have done a great job of keeping their talent levels sufficiently stocked around Ja Morant. When he's healthy, though, he pilots this team in true No. 1 option fashion.
Last season, he returned from a 25-game suspension and immediately delivered a game-winning buzzer-beater for the Grizzlies. This season, he has handled a team-high 31.9 usage percentage in the clutch.
Memphis might utilize Jaren Jackson Jr. as Morant's screen partner or deploy Desmond Bane as the secondary creator, but Morant will at least start with the ball in his hands for the final possession. And if he sniffs out any kind of attack lane, he'll go full-throttle to the rim for the finish.
Jimmy Butler's soap opera in South Beach might be the current most compelling plotline, but it has unfortunately overshadowed what appears to be a full-fledged breakout from Tyler Herro. The sixth-year scoring guard has perked up his production across the board, completing the always tricky task of simultaneously increasing his quantity and quality. He has largely erased the in-between portion of his shot profile, preferring to primarily feast on perimeter looks and point-blank attacks.
His progress as a playmaker only adds to his potency, particularly when defenders must always be cognizant of his threat as a pull-up shooter. All of this—his own ascension and Butler's attempt to find the nearest exit—has cemented Herro's spot as the focal point of this offense. And considering he was burying late-game buckets long before that top perch was his, he might monopolize all of Miami's crunch-time shots in a Game 7.
The partnership between Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard hasn't always been perfect, but it didn't take long for them to find their preferred late-game pecking order. They weren't even finished with their first season together when Antetokounmpo was freely handing over the late-game offense. "Down the stretch, he's going to get the ball," Antetokounmpo told The Athletic's Eric Nehm last February.
"There's nothing else that we will do." When Lillard relocated from the Pacific time zone to the Central, his fourth-quarter clock didn't change. Those pre-buzzer seconds still operate on Dame Time.
Since the start of last season, Lillard has attempted 45 shots in the final two minutes of a single-score game. Antetokounmpo has 22 such shots during this stretch. While the Timberwolves had already shifted face-of-the-franchise status from Karl-Anthony Towns to Anthony Edwards last season, the two players had an almost 1A-1B dynamic in the clutch.
Edwards was still the first choice, but he didn't have huge advantages over Towns in shots ( 23 to 18 ) or assists (six to four) in the final two minutes of a single-score game. With Towns off the roster now, though, Minnesota's crunch-time offense is basically down to Edwards or bust. He has taken 17 shots in the final two minutes of a one-score game, or 10 more than any teammate (Mike Conley is next at seven) and 12 more than Towns' replacement, Julius Randle.
Edwards' growth as a three-point shooter has given him just about everything you'd want in a closer. Defenses have long feared the strength, ferocity and explosiveness of his drives, but now they must also contend one of the Association's best volume-plus-efficiency threats. He and Stephen Curry are the only players averaging at least four three-pointers per game while shooting 40-plus percent from distance.
Can we pass on this question until after the trade deadline? Because the Pelicans might lead the league in trade candidates—at least notable ones—although they reportedly consider finding a trade for Brandon Ingram "the priority" ahead of the deadline, per ESPN's Tim MacMahon and Bobby Marks . It seems a little silly, then, to suggest Ingram as the late-game shooter of choice, but it's certainly less silly than picturing the five-win Pelicans having to figure out their plan of attack for a Game 7 this season. If New Orleans somehow kept this roster intact and had a Game 7 hanging in the balance, though, Ingram's isolation game, ability to score in multiple ways and playmaking prowess have him best positioned for the role.
If New Orleans felt it needed to strengthen its seemingly always precarious relationship with Zion Williamson, though, it might consider letting the big fella loose for a score-or-go-fishing possession. Karl-Anthony Towns would warrant serious consideration for this shot. He has almost overtaken Jalen Brunson for the team lead in scoring (24.
9 points to Brunson's 25.2), and Towns is a hot streak from the foul line away from also enjoying a 50/40/90 slash (he's at 54.8/44/83.
6). This is less of a Batman-Robin situation and more of a truly equal partnership. At least, that's how the relationship works for most of the game.
Let the clock tick down to the closing seconds, though, and it's obvious that Brunson remains Batman in Gotham. In the final two minutes of a one-score game, Brunson has sizable advantages on Towns in shots ( 10 to six ), free-throw attempts (11 to zero) and usage percentage ( 44.4 to 18.
8 ). Brunson, in other words, is the go-to late-game option, while Towns looms as the wildly efficient second option. The Thunder haven't provided a ton of clues about their crunch-time plans this season, because they've often buried the opposition well ahead of the final countdown.
When your average game is a 12.2-point win, you don't find yourself in many nail-biters. Of course, clues aren't needed to determine which direction Oklahoma City would turn.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is the lone mega-wattage star on this roster. No one is even within 10 points of his nightly allotment of 31.2 points.
On the rare occasion in which the Thunder have needed to sweat out critical possessions, they have funneled everything through Gilgeous-Alexander. He has scored 23 of the team's 29 points and taken eight of their 13 shots hoisted during the final two minutes of one-score games. Prior to the season, this may not have needed any discussion.
Then, Franz Wagner messed around and made a legitimate leap toward stardom after Paolo Banchero suffered a torn oblique in late October. That said, it still feels like no real discussion is needed. As dominant as Wagner looked before his suffering his own oblique tear—three consecutive 30-plus-point performances right before the injury—Banchero still looks like the obvious choice for his isolation-friendly combination of size (6'10", 250 lbs), force and finesse.
Banchero has only suited up five times this season and still netted 30-plus points in three different games, including serving up the season's first 50-burger . While Wagner's ascension should increase Orlando's crunch-time menu, Banchero remains the first option for the final shot. This question came up before the season and still doesn't have an obvious answer.
Of course, if the Sixers can't stay healthy long enough to make up for their early funk, it maybe isn't one coach Nick Nurse will ever need to figure out. For now, Tyrese Maxey is a tempting option as a blur with the basketball and as a willing and able passer. But he has lost sizable chunks from his field-goal and three-point percentages both this season and last.
Paul George's resume suggests he belongs in the mix, too, but he's had a disastrous start to his tenure with the team while fighting both injuries and inconsistency. All of that said, if the Sixers have to get a bucket, then they probably have to look in the direction of (a hypothetically healthy) Joel Embiid. He has won an MVP and a couple of scoring titles for a reason.
There just isn't a good way for defenses to handle a 7'0", 280-pounder with footwork, soft touch and shooting range that extends to the three-point line. Of the myriad players to log 1,000 career minutes in this league, none has bettered Embiid's 31.4 career points per 36 minutes.
The Suns could, at least in theory, make their late-game offense an equality-opportunity split between Kevin Durant and Devin Booker. Would that actually make things harder for opposing defenses, though, or just harder on Phoenix for not using perhaps history's most skilled scorer—if not best scorer outright—as often as possible? The Suns have largely adapted that egalitarian mindset this season, tasking Durant with 11 shots and Booker with nine during the final two minutes of single-score games. Durant, by the way, converted six of those shots, while Booker made only one.
Last season, Durant had a bigger edge in shots ( 26 to 16 ), although Booker was more efficient inside the arc. In a vacuum, Durant still feels like the easy choice, because defenses have yet to find a great answer for a 6'11" scoring forward with guard-like handles and a feathery jumper from all over the floor. It feels even more obvious with Booker struggling to find his shooting touch this season.
The Blazers, who might be years away from playing in a Game 7 of any kind, are in a tricky spot for this exercise. If they were pushing for maximum competitiveness, they could lean on Jerami Grant, who isn't having a great season but averaged 21 points on 45.1/40.
2/81.7 shooting just last season. If they were fully prioritizing the future, they might go with a more obvious building block, like Scoot Henderson or Shaedon Sharpe.
Anfernee Simons wins out here by way of the goldilocks principle. The 25-year-old is pretty established and plenty productive, but he's also just young enough to potentially keep long-term. He could handle a big shot right now, but he could also continue developing and help Portland find its way into a higher-stakes situation down the line.
Not to mention, Simons is a pretty slick offensive option. His shooting rates haven't been great this season, but he's been a quantity-plus-quality marksman in the past, and he has enough bounce that he's a previous dunk contest champion. Back in 2022-23, De'Aaron Fox collected the inaugural Clutch Player of the Year award.
So, he's a no-brainer lock for Sacramento, right? Well, yes and no. You see, his teammate, DeMar DeRozan, finished third in the voting that season and was second to Stephen Curry last season. Fox, for the record, finished in a four-way tie for 12th last season with a single point in the voting.
Kings interim coach Doug Christie will surely have some late-game designs written up for DeRozan. The biggest of them—and the bulk of them—will be for Fox, though. That's partly because he is tougher to cover as a better shooter, a more explosive athlete and a more natural playmaker.
It's also because Sacramento needs to appease Fox however possible, since he's unsigned beyond next season having declined a three-year, $165 million max extension ahead of this campaign. Victor Wembanyama is the best player on the Spurs right now and their most important player going forward. He's also maybe a basketball-mastering alien who might one day break the sport as we know it.
He is, in other words, perhaps the strongest lock of anyone on this list. So far this season, he has attempted a team-high eight field goals in the final two minutes of a single-score game and 11 of the team's 21 free throws in those situations. If San Antonio extends any series to seven games this season, he'd be the reason why, and the Spurs would have zero hesitation trusting him with their last-second look.
It's too early to tell whether Scottie Barnes might one day evolve into true centerpiece status. It's not at all too early to view him as the primary piece in the Raptors' rebuilding project. So, until that position changes, he should be the de facto choice for any do-or-die shots.
Maybe he'd get into some two-man action with Immanuel Quickley. Perhaps if Barnes, a career 30.8 percent three-point shooter, was particularly shaky that night, and RJ Barrett was on a heater, Toronto could give at least some consideration toward its native son.
Still, if you were putting odds on who would take the last shot for the Raptors, Barnes would be the favorite. And he'd deserve it. He has flashed the most high-end talent of any player on the roster, and even if scoring isn't his best skill, he's still good at doing it in a variety of ways.
The Jazz are in a strange spot. They are obviously rebuilding and seemingly all-in on the tank race for a top 2025 prospect, and yet it makes perfect sense for them to put their last-second hopes in the hands of a 27-year-old. That's because Lauri Markkanen seemingly sits at the heart of their rebuilding strategy.
He just inked a five-year, $238 million renegotiation and extension in August, and while he'll become trade-eligible this offseason, Utah might see a chance to pivot toward a competitive roster in time to capitalize on his prime. If this was a full-fledged, all-eyes-on-the-future, long-term rebuild, maybe it would make sense to let Keyonte George get a crack at a win-or-go-home shot. With Markkanen still a part of the plans, though, the 2022-23 All-Star and Most Improved Player is an obvious choice.
Jordan Poole isn't necessarily a clear-cut choice—it's fair to wonder if Washington would trade him if it could find an interested suitor—but he kind of holds this position by default in the District. It sounds like Kyle Kuzma's days there could be numbered , and he's less productive (by volume and efficiency) than he's been in years. Malcolm Brogdon and Jonas Valančiūnas are short-term placeholders.
Alex Sarr and Bilal Coulibaly are long-term building blocks, but they are defense-first prospects who don't have deep enough offensive bags to handle a last-second possession. Bub Carrington could be a fun choice, but that'd be a ton to ask of a rookie who was the last lottery pick in a pretty widely panned draft. So, Poole it is.
His percentages have rebounded from last season's disappointment—his three-ball has never been more potent—and he still has some of the most slippery dribble moves in the league, plus a willingness to launch from just about anywhere. He isn't a great last-second, Game 7 option, but the Wizards aren't a great team, so what would you expect? * Statistics used courtesy of NBA.com and Basketball-Reference and current through Thursday's games.
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