2 weeks Ago
As the calendar flips to November and college football teams prepare for the stretch run, four teams have separated themselves in the Big Ten and established a clear upper-level hierarchy. No. 1 Oregon (8-0, 5-0 Big Ten), No.
3 Penn State (7-0, 4-0), No. 4 Ohio State (6-1, 3-1) and No. 13 Indiana (8-0, 5-0) are the Big Ten’s top contenders for the conference championship game and the inaugural 12-team College Football Playoff .
They’re the only four Big Ten teams with only one loss or fewer. Advertisement It will take most of November to determine the conference’s title-game participants, and the Playoff selection committee will announce its field on Dec. 8.
Each of the four could lose a game and still qualify for the CFP. But for those competing, there’s an urgency attached to each contest. “We’re in the playoffs now,” Ohio State quarterback Will Howard told reporters after the Buckeyes edged Nebraska 21-17 on Saturday .
“Every game is the most important game. We can’t afford to put any performance out there that we’re not proud of. I think (Saturday) will wake us up and remind us that we have to continue to grind every single day, every single week and not ever get complacent.
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setAttribute("style", "pointer-events: none;");}) Free, daily sports updates direct to your inbox. How they got here Ohio State is the only team in the group that will face the other three this season. It dropped a 32-31 decision at Oregon two weeks ago when Howard took off scrambling with five seconds left.
He didn’t hit the turf in time to call timeout before the Buckeyes could attempt a final-second field goal. This week, Ohio State travels to Penn State in one of the sport’s annual marquee matchups. Then on Nov.
23, the Hoosiers head to Columbus vying to end a 29-game losing streak to Ohio State, the longest by one team over another in Big Ten history. Despite facing no Power 4 nonconference opponents — Ohio State’s two-game series with Washington was scuttled when the Huskies joined the Big Ten — the Buckeyes have played the most difficult schedule of the four thus far. Ohio State’s seven opponents have combined to win 60 percent of their games, and its final five foes have won 63.
1 percent. The Big Ten’s three unbeaten teams possess almost identical winning percentages of their opponents remaining, ranging from 56.3 (Oregon) to 53.
8 (Penn State). But through the season’s first two months, Indiana’s opponents have won just 41.3 percent of their games, followed by Penn State (45.
5) and Oregon (57.3). Advertisement Statistically speaking In most areas, there’s little separation among the quartet.
They’re the Big Ten’s top four teams in scoring offense, scoring defense and total offense and rank Nos. 1, 2, 3 and 6 in total defense. There are a couple of categories where teams are statistical outliers, which could determine the outcome of an upcoming contest.
Among Big Ten teams, Oregon is 12 th in yards per carry allowed (4.05). Twice the Ducks have given up more than 200 rushing yards in a game.
Once was to Boise State and Broncos phenom Ashton Jeanty in a 37-34 last-second win. The other was against conference bottom-feeder Purdue, which ran for 5.2 yards per carry.
This could become an issue this week against Michigan, which averages nearly 4.7 yards per carry and has one of the league’s top defenses. Indiana has yet to trail in a game so there aren’t many concerning numbers.
But one to watch is the defensive completion percentage (62.2), which ranks 11 th in the Big Ten. Every FBS opponent has completed at least 60 percent of its passes against Indiana, with Washington topping out at 70.
4 percent on Saturday. Ohio State, which has two of the nation’s top receivers in Emeka Egbuka and Jeremiah Smith, completes 72.3 percent of its passes.
The Buckeyes’ pass defense gives up an even higher completion percentage (64.0). That could be a concern with games against the Nittany Lions and Hoosiers, who both have completed at least 71.
9 percent of their passes. Penn State ranks 11 th among Big Ten schools in sacks (14) with four coming from potential first-round draft pick Abdul Carter. With upcoming games against prolific passers with quality receivers like Howard and Washington’s Will Rogers, disruption will be pivotal for Penn State’s defense.
GO DEEPER Checking in on Big Ten's first coast-to-coast season: Does conference have concerns? CFP expectations Ohio State, Oregon and Penn State entered the 2024 season with similar expectations. All three were ranked in the top eight in the AP preseason Top 25 and have eyes on the CFP. The Buckeyes’ collective spent around $20 million to retain several potential NFL prospects and acquire a high-level talent like Howard (Kansas State), safety Caleb Downs (Alabama) and running back Quinshon Judkins (Ole Miss).
Advertisement Oregon expects to compete for the national title despite moving from the Pac-12 to the Big Ten. There has been little on-field adjustment to the new conference, but with major portal pickups like quarterback Dillon Gabriel (Oklahoma), defensive tackle Derrick Harmon (Michigan State), cornerback Jabbar Muhammad (Washington) and wide receiver Evan Stewart (Texas A&M), the Ducks have invested heavily in this roster. The expanded CFP can redefine James Franklin’s tenure at Penn State.
The Nittany Lions never appeared in the four-team CFP, but they would have qualified six times for a 12-team tournament since 2016 when they won their lone Big Ten title under Franklin. Penn State has beaten Ohio State just once under Franklin, and those rivalry losses kept the Nittany Lions out of the Big Ten title game twice in the old East-West divisional structure. Without the limitations, it’s Playoff or bust.
Nothing was expected from Indiana this year. The Hoosiers finished 3-9 last season and fired coach Tom Allen. Curt Cignetti left James Madison for Bloomington and instilled a new culture without the baggage of IU’s past failures.
He brought 12 players from his former program and added highly acclaimed experienced veterans from G5 schools. Starting last fall and going through the spring portal period, 43 players left Indiana while Cignetti signed 37 newcomers. GO DEEPER Dochterman: Indiana is no Cinderella.
The Hoosiers look like they can crash the CFP and compete Paced by former Ohio quarterback Kurtis Rourke, the Hoosiers rank second nationally in scoring offens e (46.5 points per game) and sixth in total offense (487.6 yards per game).
Rourke injured his right thumb against Nebraska last week and did not play on Saturday in a 31-17 win against Washington. That output was tied for Indiana’s fewest points in a game this season. “I think this is a close team with a lot of competitive character, guys that really want to be good, have the right stuff, and they found a way to win,” Cignetti told reporters after beating Washington.
Biggest game remaining It’s a given that Ohio State at Penn State on Saturday and Indiana at Ohio State on Nov. 23 are season-defining games. During the final month, there are other potential pitfalls for each program.
For Penn State, it’s a trip to Minnesota on Nov. 23. The Nittany Lions haven’t won in Minneapolis since 2010 when the Gophers had an interim coach.
Advertisement Nearly every game on Oregon’s remaining schedule contains a possible upset. The Ducks play at Michigan and Wisconsin and conclude their season against rival Washington, which beat Oregon twice last year. Wisconsin’s offensive balance and home environment can distract any opponent if it’s not equipped to handle it.
The Badgers may be underrated because they didn’t compete for the CFP championship last year, unlike Michigan and Washington. Ohio State circles its calendar for only one team, and that’s Michigan. It doesn’t matter if either team is down, it’s the most important game on the schedule.
That the Wolverines have won three straight in the series has added importance. Michigan’s offensive inconsistency makes it dangerous because it has nothing to lose. Indiana plays Michigan State (road) and Michigan (home) in consecutive weeks.
The Spartans have an elusive, talented quarterback in Aidan Chiles, and the Brass Spittoon is at stake. But a win against Michigan matters even more; the Hoosiers haven’t topped the Wolverines in a non-COVID-19 season since 1987. Biggest question The four programs are at different stages, and they all have different challenges and question marks entering the final month.
For Indiana, it’s how its players handle adversity. With a victory margin of 32.4 points per game, how will the Hoosiers react in a close game in the fourth quarter? Oregon still has a pair of lengthy road trips against teams capable of putting up a fight.
Can the Ducks close on the road the way they did at home against Boise State and Ohio State against an upset-minded motivated opponent? Penn State has lost seven straight to Ohio State, and it’s a mental block. Every year there’s a theme to the loss. Last year, the Nittany Lions mounted nothing on offense.
In 2022, they had four turnovers. Only once during the previous five games against the Buckeyes has Penn State surpassed 100 rushing yards, and not since 2018 has it averaged more than 3.4 yards per carry.
No team has more pressure applied to it than Ohio State, which boasts the Big Ten’s most talented roster. The portal payouts and Michigan’s three straight Big Ten titles have ramped up the intensity on coach Ryan Day. A one-point loss at Oregon followed by a narrow escape against Nebraska has brought an even brighter spotlight on Ohio State.
Whether the Buckeyes ignore or succumb to the noise will determine whether this is a nice season or one to remember. (Top photo of Terrance Ferguson , right, and Denzel Burke : Ali Gradischer / Getty Images).
