2 weeks Ago
Through nine weeks of the first college football season with a 12-team Playoff, we’ve learned tenuous times arrive quickly, and having a handful of supposedly elite teams living on the edge should make for an entertaining November. Both No. 4 Ohio State and No.
5 Texas were pushed Saturday, and you don’t have to stretch your imagination to come up with a scenario where one more loss is one too many for either the Buckeyes or Longhorns to get into the College Football Playoff. Advertisement What’s up, Bucks? Ohio State (6-1) hadn’t played since its 32-31 loss at Oregon two weeks ago, a no-shame performance in a hostile environment. The Buckeyes also left Eugene with a huge hole along their offensive line after left tackle Josh Simmons was lost for the year with a leg injury.
Against a Nebraska team last seen getting steamrolled by unbeaten Indiana , the Buckeyes offense sputtered and then lost Simmons’ replacement to an injury. Zen Michalski being carted off the field. pic.
twitter.com/ErhqFTkX6e — Dave Holmes (@DaveHolmesTV) October 26, 2024 “It’s not good enough,” Ohio State coach Ryan Day told reporters. “We’ve got to be able to run the football.
We didn’t do that today. That’s why we put the defense in bad spots. That’s why we were 1 for 10 on third down and 1 for 2 on fourth downs.
” When the Cornhuskers got the ball back down four points with 3:36 left in the fourth quarter, it was impossible not to think: Ohio State, the team with the $20 million roster, is not going to make the Playoff if it loses this game. Of course, even if the Buckeyes had taken a second loss, they could run the table, win the Big Ten and not only make the field but earn a first-round bye. That would have been a possible scenario, if not a likely one.
This is most definitely a system where one bad day doesn’t doom a season. According to Austin Mock’s projections , Ohio State still has a 90 percent chance of making the field. But with games against No.
3 Penn State (7-0) and No. 13 Indiana (8-0) still on the schedule — and Oregon rolling — Ohio State is already in a precarious position and could easily get shut out of the Big Ten Championship Game if it loses one more time. GO DEEPER Ryan Day, Ohio State face pressing question that threatens to derail title hopes This whole Indiana thing clearly needs to be taken seriously.
The Hoosiers are 8-0, with nothing but double-digit victories. Comparing scores against common opposition can be a dangerous game that leads to flawed evaluations, but how could you not watch the Buckeyes struggle to put away Nebraska and not recall that just last week Indiana looked as if it could have scored 100 against the Huskers? Advertisement The Buckeyes go to Penn State next Saturday, with the Nittany Lions coming off a solid road win at Wisconsin that created intrigue at quarterback. Starter Drew Allar sat out the second half against the Badgers with what looked like a knee injury, and Beau Pribula played well enough to start some conversations this week in Happy Valley about who is the best option to snap a seven-game losing streak to Ohio State.
Meanwhile, the Ducks followed up their big home win against the Buckeyes with consecutive blowouts, including a 38-9 win Saturday against No. 20 Illinois . For those worried the 12-team Playoff would somehow sap the regular season of drama for the top teams, well, we’re going to spend the next month watching Ohio State try to walk a tightrope to the CFP.
New SEC favorite Alone at the top of the Southeastern Conference stands Texas A&M. The No. 14 Aggies (7-1) beat No.
8 LSU in a matchup of the SEC’s final two teams with spotless conference records after Texas A&M quarterback Marcel Reed came off the bench and turned into Jayden Daniels . First-year coach Mike Elko found the explosiveness his offense was missing thanks to the lanky redshirt freshman, who completed his only two passes for 70 yards and ran for three scores in the second half. “You outrushed a team 242-24 in an SEC football game .
.. that’s a strong statement of where our physicality has gotten to,” Elko said.
THE AGGIES ARE ROLLING 🔥 📺 ABC pic.twitter.com/QrBY2jHpoR — ESPN (@espn) October 27, 2024 Yes, the first-place team in the SEC’s only loss is to No.
12 Notre Dame (7-1). There are no givens, especially on the road in the SEC, but the only thing standing between Texas A&M hosting Texas in the regular-season finale with a chance to play in the SEC championship for the first time are road games at South Carolina and Auburn. The Aggies are still checking in with only a 31 percent chance of making the field, according to Mock’s model.
Advertisement As if the first meeting between the Aggies and Longhorns since 2011 wasn’t going to be big enough already. LSU (6-2) will still have something to say about how the SEC race plays out, with three of its final four in Death Valley (Alabama, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma) and a road trip to Florida on Nov. 16.
There has been lots of talk about elimination games, but LSU-Alabama (6-2) on Nov. 9 seems as if it will truly be one. As for Texas, the Longhorns (7-1) almost got Vandy-ed on Saturday.
Three weeks after Diego Pavia and the Commodores knocked off Alabama in Nashville, they pushed Texas for four quarters. Things never got quite as dicey for the Longhorns as they did for Alabama, but it was a one-score game for most of the fourth quarter and was not decided until an onside kick was recovered in the last minute. Much like the Buckeyes, the Longhorns have to like their position if they can reach the conference title game.
They are also one misstep away from being stuck in a potential logjam of two-loss teams, boxed out of winning an SEC title, with a resume light on big wins. Don’t forget the Green Wave For all the talk about Army and Navy in the American Athletic Conference, the team to beat in the league again appears to be Tulane. No.
23 Army (7-0) was off this week and remains atop the conference, along with No. 24 Navy and the Green Wave. The Midshipmen were emphatically handed their first loss by Notre Dame, 51-14.
GO DEEPER Notre Dame took full advantage of Navy fumbling away its biggest opportunity While the service academies have beefed up on some manageable competition, the Green Wave lost two nonconference games to Kansas State (close at home) and Oklahoma (not quite so close on the road). Since getting into AAC play, the Wave has been rolling toward what they hope will be a third straight conference title game. When coach Willie Fritz left for Houston and quarterback Michael Pratt for the NFL , the conventional wisdom was Tulane might take a step back.
But first-year coach Jon Sumrall, with the help of some imports he brought with him from Troy, has the most balanced team in the AAC. Advertisement Tulane has Charlotte and Temple up next, which shouldn’t be too tough before closing with Navy and Memphis . Boise State has to be considered the favorite among Group of 5 teams to make the Playoff as the fifth-highest-ranked conference champion.
Mock’s projections give Boise State a 55 percent chance to make the field. Heisman Trophy hopeful Ashton Jeanty and the Broncos won a thriller Friday night at UNLV, a game that could very well be played again to decide the Mountain West and a Playoff spot in December. Tulane has a 6 percent chance to make the Playoff, according to Mock’s projections.
Keep the Green Wave on your radar. ACCtion! Pitt used three pick-sixes on Thursday to stay unbeaten against Syracuse and SMU overcame six — SIX!! — turnovers to beat Duke in overtime Saturday night. NO.
22 SMU WINS A THRILLER IN OT OVER DUKE 😮🔥 pic.twitter.com/nachwcfPP5 — ESPN College Football (@ESPNCFB) October 27, 2024 That sets up the first meeting of the Ponies and Panthers as members of the ACC next week in the biggest game between the programs since the 1983 Cotton Bowl.
That New Year’s Day meeting was a top-10 matchup with Dan Marino slinging it for Pitt and Eric Dickerson running it for SMU. Somehow, they combined for only 10 points in a 7-3 SMU victory. No.
6 Miami and No. 9 Clemson are clearly the ACC’s best shots at the Playoff, but Pitt and SMU are jockeying to be disruptors. SMU could be especially problematic because the Hurricanes, Tigers and Mustangs don’t play each other and could create a three-way tie of conference unbeatens.
Eliminated Any team that mathematically has a chance to play for its conference title can’t be officially called eliminated from Playoff contention, but we’re going to declare a few teams done anyway. Illinois (6-2) has been soundly beaten by both Oregon and Penn State, meaning even if the Illini figure out a way to get to 10-2 the chances they’ll be able to break the ties necessary to get to Indianapolis for the Big Ten title game are bleak — and they will have no real notable victories. Advertisement The Big 12 seems volatile, but BYU , Iowa State , Kansas State and Colorado have now separated from the rest of the conference.
Shedeur Sanders and the Buffaloes bounced Cincinnati (5-3) from contention by handing the Bearcats a second conference loss. In theory, Missouri could win out and finish 10-2, but after losing quarterback Brady Cook to a hand injury and getting pummeled 34-0 by Alabama, it’s safe to say the Tigers are toast. (Photo of Emeka Egbuka : Ian Johnson / Icon Sportswire via Getty Images).
