2 days Ago By Todd Dewey
Picking winners in NFL Week 18 is always a crapshoot. But bettors can almost certainly count on the Lions-Vikings game on “Sunday Night Football” to be a shootout. The showdown of 14-2 teams in Detroit for the NFC’s No.
1 playoff seed features the highest total on the board at 56. But Review-Journal NFL Challenge leader Scott Kellen (48-35-2 against the spread) believes that number should be higher and made the over his best bet of the weekend. “Going over such a high total seems like a square move, but this total isn’t high enough based on my numbers,” said Kellen (@SixthSenseNFL).
The NFC North rivals combined for 60 points in their first meeting this season, a 31-29 Lions win in Minneapolis. Kellen noted that Minnesota coach Kevin O’Connell is on an 8-2 over run as a road underdog and Detroit coach Dan Campbell is on a 14-6 over run as a home favorite. The Lions are on a 4-0 over streak, beating the Packers 34-31 and losing to the Bills 48-42 their last two home games.
“Campbell knows he needs to score points to win this because his defense is so banged up,” Kellen said. “A 30-27 score or better is very justifiable knowing both teams can easily get to 30 points in this game short of key turnovers. I would play this at 57 or lower.
” Detroit is a consensus 3-point favorite over Minnesota, with the line 21⁄2 at the South Point sportsbook. Pro sports bettors Cris Zeniuk and Jeff Whitelaw are on opposite sides of this one. Zeniuk likes the Lions, while Whitelaw bet on the Vikings.
“The Lions are setting offensive scoring records, playing at home in their black-and-blue uniforms,” said Zeniuk (@lasvegascris). “Their defense is hurting and they will give up big plays, but (the Vikings) still will have trouble outscoring the focused Lions, desperate for that extra week off. “A cheap money line is my preference, but they should cover the 21⁄2 (or) 3.
” Said Whitelaw: “Detroit is 6-2 at home and 8-0 on the road. So they are beatable at home. I just think because Detroit is so injured defensively, it’s slightly too many points.
” Here are four more weekend best bets, which are 56-29-4 ATS the past 15 weeks (home team in CAPS): Bengals (-11⁄2) over STEELERS, Saturday “The Bengals are the 49ers of the AFC,” said pro sports bettor Scott Pritchard (Pritchardspicks.com). “Are you kidding me? They have lost at least four games they should have won.
Way better than their record.” Bills (-2) over PATRIOTS “I don’t see the motivation for New England wanting to win a game when they have the No. 1 pick already,” Whitelaw said.
“Buffalo’s backups are pretty good and (quarterback Josh) Allen is going to start to continue his (consecutive starts) streak. (Mitchell) Trubisky is a decent backup.” Chiefs (+101⁄2) over BRONCOS Legendary sportscaster Brent Musburger, in second place in the RJ Challenge (48-36-1 ATS), is backing coach Andy Reid and Kansas City’s backups over Denver.
“Yes, I know Reid is sitting starters, including (quarterback) Patrick Mahomes, and the Broncos are a win away from claiming the final playoff spot,” Musburger said. “Let me take you back to 2013. Similar situation.
Chiefs were locked into playoffs and were traveling to San Diego. Chargers needed a win to make the playoffs. The Chiefs were 14-point underdogs and Reid rested most of his starters, including quarterback Alex Smith.
Backup quarterback Chase Daniel had Chiefs poised for the upset but a missed field goal allowed (quarterback) Philip Rivers and the Chargers to win in overtime. Easy cover. “Broncos may win Sunday, but my money’s on Reid and backup quarterback Carson Wentz.
” College Football Playoff semifinal, Jan. 10 Texas (+6) over Ohio State, Cotton Bowl Whitelaw bet on the Longhorns +61⁄2 when the line opened Wednesday after Texas beat Arizona State 39-31 in double overtime and the Buckeyes crushed Oregon 41-21. “I think that number is ridiculous,” Whitelaw said.
“Prior to them playing (Wednesday), the hypothetical number was 11⁄2. So they made a five-point adjustment off of (Wednesday’s) results. I think that’s an over-correction.
“They’re playing the game in Dallas at AT&T Stadium. It’s virtually a home game for Texas. Texas has a fantastic defense and I think a five-point correction over one game is too much.
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