2 weeks Ago By Kristopher Knox
The opening week of the 2024 NFL season was full of surprises, and Week 2 was no different. We saw a handful of underdogs pull out upsets, while presumed contenders like the Philadelphia Eagles and Baltimore Ravens suffered late collapses. If there's one thing we can say with certainty after two weeks, it's that this season is going to be a roller-coaster ride.
Picking against the spread is likely to remain a challenge until we know for certain which teams are good and which are not. Fans so inclined, though, can always turn away from spreads and money lines and consider box-score bets instead. Here, you'll find a few enticing box-score over/unders to consider for Week 3, based on factors like recent production, projected roles, individual matchups and the early lines.
Odds via DraftKings Sportsbook . Perhaps the most enticing play for Thursday's Week 3 opener involves No. 2 New England Patriots running back Antonio Gibson.
Gibson is -115 (bet $115 to win $100) to rush for more than 20 yards against the New York Jets. He fell short of that total in Week 1 (seven carries, 18 yards) but racked up 96 yards on 11 carries in Week 2. The biggest factor to consider here is New England's offensive identity.
The passing game has been below average with Jacoby Brissett under center and with a lackluster receiving corps. The Patriots are going to lean on Rhamondre Stevenson, Gibson and the ground game against New York. And that plan can work.
While the Jets have a capable pass rush and a strong secondary, they have been susceptible to the run this season. They surrendered 180 rushing yards to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 1 and 130 yards to the Tennessee Titans in Week 2. As a team, New York ranks 20th in yards per carry allowed this season.
As long as Gibson receives double-digit carries on Thursday—and he should—he should have little trouble hitting the over here. Though he caught two touchdown passes in Week 1, Houston Texans receiver Stefon Diggs hasn't really had a breakout game with his new team. He's been targeted exactly six times in each game and has yet to top 40 receiving yards in a contest.
This week's matchup with the Minnesota Vikings, Diggs' former team, may provide a little motivation. However, the under (-115) still feels like the safe play with this box-score line. The reality is that, in Houston, Diggs isn't the go-to target.
Nico Collins remains the No. 1 option and C.J.
Stroud's favorite target. That's not going to change against Minnesota. It's also worth considering the fact that the Vikings boast a stout pass defense.
Minnesota has already recorded 11 sacks this season and ranks second in passing yards allowed. Finding yards through the air will be a struggle, and in critical moments, Stroud is likely to turn to the pass-catchers he trusts most—Collins, Tank Dell and tight end Dalton Schultz. This is a tricky play, of course, because Diggs does have big-play potential.
Until he actually shows it in Bobby Slowik's offense, however, it'll be hard to take the over with Diggs. While Chicago Bears rookie quarterback Caleb Williams is still seeking his first "good" performance as a pro, the over (-115) for this passing line is enticing. The Indianapolis Colts secondary has serious issues and currently ranks 23rd in net yards per pass attempt allowed.
The Colts (four sacks) have also struggled to consistently pressure opposing quarterbacks—which is a key factor against Chicago. While Williams only threw for 174 yards against the Houston Texans in Week 2, he looked a lot more poised than he did in his Week 1 debut. The problem is that Chicago's offensive line couldn't consistently give him time in the pocket.
This left Williams largely leaning on the short-passing game and essentially erased big-play threat D.J. Moore from the downfield game plan.
Moore caught five passes against Houston but only notched 36 receiving yards. Indy's run defense has been suspect enough that the Colts haven't allowed 205 passing yards in a game yet this season. However, this game will give Chicago a chance to spark its passing attack and give Williams some much-needed confidence.
Expect offensive coordinator Shane Waldron to spend a lot of time this week working out ways to protect Williams and to increase Moore's involvement. After getting blown out in their home opener, the Dallas Cowboys need to bounce back, and they need to do it quickly. "We weren't quick to the first punch," head coach Mike McCarthy said, per Patrik Walker of the team's official website.
"...
And I thought that they finished better than we did." If the Cowboys are going to rebound against the Baltimore Ravens in Week 3, they'll likely need a strong performance from Dak Prescott. Their ground game has largely been ineffective, which is one reason to like the over (-115) with this passing prob.
Another reason is Baltimore's defense. Last year's top-ranked scoring unit simply hasn't been as good following the departure of coordinator Mike Macdonald. It has struggled to generate a reliable pass rush and has had too many lapses in the secondary.
Patrick Mahomes diced the Ravens defense for 291 passing yards in the opener, which wasn't a huge surprise. However, Gardner Minshew also found big plays against Baltimore in Week 2 when the Las Vegas Raiders were clearly trying to mount a comeback. Minshew threw for 276 yards on Sunday.
Win or lose, the ball will be in Prescott's hands frequently on Sunday, and Baltimore's defense has been inconsistent enough for him to hit the over in a pivotal matchup. Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369). If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.
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