Week 12 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 11 Results

In what had already been a wild 2024 NFL season, Week 11 managed to deliver peak drama. The Kansas City Chiefs suffered their first loss at the hands of the Buffalo Bills. The Pittsburgh Steelers outlasted the Baltimore Ravens to take command of the AFC North, and the Los Angeles Chargers overcame a furious second-half rally by the Cincinnati Bengals.

The San Francisco 49ers, meanwhile, blew another fourth-quarter lead, and the Atlanta Falcons were flat-out embarrassed by the Denver Broncos. Oh, and the Detroit Lions romped over the Jacksonville Jaguars in a 52-6 contest that showcased the gap between the NFL's top contenders and bottom-feeders. None of this means that predicting results has become easy.



However, there are some intriguing betting options to be found in the Week 12 schedule based on the early lines. *Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook Short-week divisional games can be dicey, but it's hard not to back the Steelers against the Cleveland Browns. Pittsburgh has established itself as one of the best teams in football, while the 2024 Browns are broken.

Cleveland had one of its best passing games of the season (377 yards) and still managed to lose by three touchdowns to the 4-7 New Orleans Saints on Sunday. The Browns offense will be much less effective against Pittsburgh's second-ranked scoring defense. Expect T.

J. Watt and Pittsburgh's pass rush to consistently disrupt the Browns' game plan. Cleveland may have to turn back to underwhelming left tackle Jedrick Wills Jr.

in the wake of Dawand Jones' season-ending ankle injury. In the past, Wills has been a flat-out liability against the Steelers. And while Cleveland's defense was very good in 2023, it's been a disaster this season.

Russell Wilson should pick apart a secondary that couldn't cover or tackle against the Saints on Sunday. The early line suggests a relatively close game, but that's not what we're likely to see. The Lions were just out there having fun against the Jaguars, racking up points and yards while barrelling past their emotional Week 10 win over the Houston Texans.

Head coach Dan Campbell faced some criticism for running up the score against Jacksonville, but it's clear that he simply isn't willing to take his foot off the proverbial gas. "You want to know that you finish on a good note, you found a rhythm, you keep the rhythm," Campbell said, per ProFootballTalk's Michael David Smith . The Indianapolis Colts should present a bigger challenge than the Jaguars did, especially if quarterback Anthony Richardson has a second straight good game.

However, Indy's 28th-ranked defense isn't quite equipped to corral the offensive onslaught that Detroit can bring. Between Jared Goff, David Montgomery, Jahmyr Gibbs, Amon-Ra St. Brown, Jameson Williams and Sam LaPorta (if he returns from his shoulder injury), the Lions have too many playmakers to stop everybody.

This is a large line, considering the 5-6 Colts are at home and still firmly in the playoff hunt. However, it isn't big enough. The last game between the Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders resulted in a 34-18 Denver victory.

The early line being less than a touchdown is likely a reflection of Las Vegas' home-field advantage. The Raiders also showed some offensive improvement in Week 11, their first game since the firing of offensive coordinator Luke Getsy. However, Las Vegas still lost by 15 points to the Miami Dolphins, who have a relatively average defense.

Denver's defense has become elite, while rookie quarterback Bo Nix has grown exponentially since the last time he faced Las Vegas. Things may not come for him as easily against Las Vegas' underrated secondary as they did during Sunday's 38-6 thrashing of the Falcons. However, he should provide good, complementary football against a team that is still struggling to find an identity.

Expect head coach Sean Payton to utilize Nix's legs and the ground game against a Raiders defense allowing 4.4 yards per carry. None of this is to suggest that Denver will run away from the Raiders for the second time this season.

However, the Broncos are a decidedly better team and aren't being favored by enough, even on the road. Gambling problem? Call (877-8-HOPENY) or text HOPENY (467369). If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, crisis counseling and referral services can be accessed by calling 1-800-GAMBLER (1-800-426-2537) (IL/IN/MI/NJ/PA/WV/WY), 1-800-NEXT STEP (AZ), 1-800-522-4700 (CO/NH), 888-789-7777/visiting ccpg.

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