Week 11 NFL Picks 2024: Early Odds to Exploit after Final Week 10 Results

Week 10 delivered one of the wildest slate of games we've seen in the 2024 NFL season. Nail-biting finishes were on the menu early and often, starting with...

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Week 10 delivered one of the wildest slate of games we've seen in the 2024 NFL season. Nail-biting finishes were on the menu early and often, starting with Thursday's Cincinnati Bengals and Baltimore Ravens matchup that was decided by a failed two-point try. Each course brought another helping of drama, reminding fans just how unpredictable the NFL can be.

One thing we've learned this season is to expect the unexpected. While that won't change in Week 11, we've identified some early lines to consider early in the week. *Lines via DraftKings Sportsbook The Chicago Bears had been much better at home than on the road in 2024.



That is, until Chicago fell flat in a 19-3 loss to the New England Patriots at Soldier Field on Sunday. Chicago's defense is still solid, but the offense is a mess. The Bears have done rookie quarterback Caleb Williams no favors with poor offensive line play and bad game planning—Williams was sacked nine times in Week 10.

Head coach Matt Eberflus may execute some offensive changes ahead of this week's matchup with the rival Green Bay Packers. "We're looking at everything," Eberflus said, per ESPN's Courtney Cronin . Good defense and fresh offensive ideas won't be enough to stifle Green Bay, which is coming off the bye and has had two weeks to draw up a game plan.

Jordan Love, Josh Jacobs and the Packers offense will find the points necessary to put Green Bay on top, while the defense will make life miserable for Williams once again. If the Patriots can win by 16 with a rookie QB and one of the league's most underwhelming offensive casts, the Packers should be able to win by a touchdown on the road. The Denver Broncos should have knocked off the undefeated Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday.

Denver outplayed Kansas City for nearly 60 full minutes but fell to the unthinkable on the final play. A blocked field goal from 42 yards out preserved a 16-14 Chiefs victory. The Broncos will look to take out their frustrations on the Atlanta Falcons this week, and it's not a great matchup for Atlanta.

The Falcons lost in Week 10 because they couldn't execute in scoring position—Younghoe Koo missed three of four field-goal attempts—and because they couldn't pressure New Orleans Saints quarterback Derek Carr. Broncos rookie quarterback Bo Nix has shown growth throughout the 2024 season and will hurt the Falcons with his arm and legs if left unchecked. Atlanta's fifth-ranked run defense, meanwhile, will help put a ton of pressure on Falcons QB Kirk Cousins.

Cousins has played well when everything else is clicking for Atlanta. However, he's struggled when the chips are stacked against him. He'll have plenty going against him on the road in Denver this weekend.

Denver lost by two in Week 10. It should win by at least that many in a bounce-back performance. Why do the New York Jets keep getting favored? Sure, they beat a banged-up Houston Texans team in Week 9, but aside from a good half of football in that contest, it's been a disaster for Gang Green in 2024.

Quarterback Aaron Rodgers is 40 years old and playing like he's 55. The offense has no semblance of continuity, and the defense hasn't been as dependable since the firing of head coach Robert Saleh. Sunday's 31-6 loss to the Arizona Cardinals fully exposed every flaw that has plagued the Jets this season.

On paper, New York has a much better roster than that of the Indianapolis Colts, but the Jets can't be trusted to beat anyone by a field goal at this point. Indy got a disastrous three-interception performance out of quarterback Joe Flacco in Week 10 and still only lost to the Buffalo Bills by 10 points. The Colts may not need to rely on Flacco against a Jets defense that coughed up 147 rushing yards and 4.

6 yards per carry against Arizona. Expect the Colts to lean on Jonathan Taylor and their ground game while pressuring Rodgers into making mistakes. New York may pull out a last-second win, but it's unlikely to win anything decisively moving forward.

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