Weatherwatch: How UK Met Office predicted winter storms well in advance

Two big storms this winter season, named Darragh and Éowyn, were predicted well in advance and led to early warnings of a threat to life from strong winds. The Met Office rightly congratulated itself on both the accuracy of its forecasts and the fact that its methods were able to predict the storms were coming, even before deep depressions had formed. This was mainly due to the improved mathematical models that forecasters have developed.

Of course, warnings are no use unless people both hear and heed them. The Met Office fires off its warnings to every form of traditional and internet media. For Storm Darragh on 6-7 December, 98% of those within the “red” national severe weather warning area were aware the storm was coming and 91% said they took action as a result, for example by securing loose objects in the garden or simply staying in.



For Storm Éowyn on 24 January, there was a 99% awareness rate and 95% took action to protect themselves or their property against damage. Altogether in the three months of winter, December, January and February, there were 108 weather warnings issued, 96 yellow, nine amber and three red – no doubt preventing much damage and potentially loss of life..