2 hours Ago By Mike Moffatt
The Greater Toronto Area is experiencing an alarming exodus of young families, which threatens the region’s economic viability. Each year, roughly 80,000 more people move out of the GTA to other parts of Canada than move in from elsewhere in the country. Failure to cut building costs by modernizing the Development Charges Act, writes Dave Wilkes, Those leaving are disproportionately between the ages of 25 and 34, and children under the age of five.
This trend has accelerated over time; a decade ago, the net loss was only 20,000 persons a year. They are leaving due to a lack of attainable, family-sized housing. Increasing numbers are moving to other provinces, particularly Alberta and Atlantic Canada, while others are applying a “drive until you qualify” approach, moving to places like Brantford, Tillsonburg and Peterborough, where they can qualify for a mortgage.
This exodus does not mean that the GTA is at risk of depopulating; the region is still growing due to birth rate and immigration. The GTA housing crisis will be a defining issue in the looming elections, writes Dave Wilkes. However, it is seeing the disappearance of the middle class, with those remaining either rich enough to afford to stay or too poor to afford to leave.
The region cannot afford to lose mechanics, nurses and plumbers to Edmonton and Calgary. Many of those moving to Brantford continue to work in the GTA; however, their long commutes put a strain on the region’s infrastructure and municipal finances. A commuting worker uses Toronto and Mississauga’s roads, but their property taxes go to Brantford.
Many eventually give up the long commutes and find work closer to home — Tillsonburg needs teachers as well. The solution to this problem is simple: build more housing. Using Ontario Ministry of Finance population projections, our team at the Missing Middle estimates that the GTA will need to build 20,000 apartment units and 30,000 ground-oriented homes, such as single-detached, semi-detached, and townhomes, per year, to prevent the housing crisis from getting worse.
And it will need to exceed these figures to create real affordability. Achieving these numbers will be a formidable task. Despite lower interest rates, Ontario’s housing affordability and supply remain a problem, The GTA has not built 30,000 ground-oriented homes in a single year since 2004 and has not exceeded 15,000 a year for nearly a decade.
While the GTA has been able not just to meet but exceed 20,000 apartment units a year, continuing to do so in the future will be difficult, as GTA housing starts fell 41 per cent in January, relative to the previous year, due to challenges in the condo market. Governments must act to facilitate housing construction. Larger PST and GST exemptions should exist for ownership housing, and municipalities must look to cut development charges and other taxes on development.
Approval processes must be made less cumbersome by adopting new methods such as Edmonton’s automated development permitting system. Land use rules need to allow for the building of family-friendly gentle density, and the supply of land allocated for residential development must be allowed to keep pace with population growth. The economic vibrancy of the GTA requires reforms to allow for the construction of attainable, family-friendly homes.
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