2 weeks Ago
Three years on, there remains no end in sight to the crisis in Myanmar. As the international community is increasingly beset by the gridlock in Myanmar and instead drawn towards conflict elsewhere in the world, there is a real concern of a "Myanmar fatigue" setting in. Be that as it may, Thailand cannot afford to lose sight of the dire situation in its immediate neighbour.
Why Thailand needs to step up First, Thailand has the most at stake if Myanmar experiences further fragmentation. As the country with the longest land border with Myanmar, Thailand is already feeling the spill-over effects. Prior to the Tatmadaw's seizure of power, Thailand had already been sheltering over 90,000 refugees from Myanmar.
As the crisis rages on, Thailand will certainly receive more displaced people seeking temporary refuge. Undoubtedly, there will be long-stayers, and the Thai authorities will have to devise a long-term strategy not just for delivering immediate humanitarian assistance but also for providing healthcare, welfare and education. It is worth recalling that during the height of the Cambodia conflict in the early 1980s, Thailand displayed tremendous goodwill for taking care of hundreds of thousands of Cambodians taking refuge along the Thai-Cambodian border.
Again, Thailand will have to demonstrate that the country has never wavered in fulfilling our humanitarian obligations. As the Tatmadaw struggles to maintain its grip over the country and its borders, transnational crime syndicates are opportunistically scaling up their illicit operations, threatening the internal security and the fabric of our society. This is not to mention the disruptions to border trade that have benefitted the people living on both sides of the border.
Therefore, it is in Thailand's self-interest to see peace and stability restored in Myanmar. Second, there are great domestic and international expectations of Thailand's strategic role. As the positions of the Myanmar parties become more entrenched, Thailand needs to step up its efforts.
For one, the Royal Thai Armed Forces can utilise their lines of communication with the Tatmadaw to directly convey to the leadership in Nay Pyi Taw our desire for a peaceful resolution to the crisis and our readiness to play a constructive role to this end. Furthermore, Thailand had been one of Myanmar's largest investors prior to the crisis and might potentially wield significant leverage in nudging the Tatmadaw and other conflict parties towards peace talks. This would also revitalise Thailand's diplomacy and rebuild confidence in Thailand's strategic role in the region.
Third, Asean's unity and centrality are at stake. Thailand needs to step up to the plate to support the implementation of the Asean's Five-Point Consensus which, unfortunately, remains in abeyance. Clearly, Association of Southeast Asian Nations (Asean) must walk the talk.
The Lao PDR as Chair of Asean, through the Asean Special Envoy, has endeavoured to initiate a dialogue process among the parties in Myanmar, with Indonesia also making valuable contributions. Thailand, on its part, can play a pivotal role in connecting the dots in forging a coherent strategy that integrates Asean's collective approach on Myanmar with those of other immediate neighbours and external partners. If Asean does not speak with one voice and act together, it will not be able to serve as a meaningful platform through which other countries can constructively engage with Myanmar.
And as it stands, the quagmire in Myanmar can turn into an arena for great power rivalry to the detriment of Asean and the region as a whole. Without Asean in the driver's seat, it could lead to a situation whereby other countries move in to secure their individual interests and we will collectively lose sight of the long-term goal of durable peace in Myanmar. What Thailand can and should do First, for Thailand to step up internationally, there needs to be robust internal coordination domestically.
While the government has established specialised task forces to coordinate efforts among key agencies, it must be noted that the policymaking agencies must also be aligned with ground operation agencies. If Thailand's approach to Myanmar is going to be a key foreign policy priority, it must be accorded the right political and institutional support. Internal coordination will not be possible without strong and unified leadership on the matter.
Second, Thailand should continue to mobilise collective effort for humanitarian assistance to Myanmar. While aid is first and foremost a humanitarian obligation, the exercise of coordinating and executing humanitarian assistance has demonstrated potential to be a confidence-building measure among domestic conflict parties, external partners and aid agencies, as evidenced in Thailand's humanitarian corridor initiative early this year. Humanitarian assistance is the key component of the Five-Point Consensus that has made the most headway and is also vital in augmenting Asean's overall diplomacy on Myanmar.
Third, Thailand should work actively with Asean counterparts in forging not just a united, but also proactive approach to Myanmar. Of course, the people of Myanmar should ultimately take ownership of its peace process. However, by showing a unity of purpose, Asean, together with other neighbouring countries and the major powers, can create the necessary conditions that would compel the conflict parties towards reducing armed hostilities and resorting to the negotiating table.
However, this will not be possible if external parties seek partisan engagement or offer support in ways that would only fuel the conflict even further. If Asean can unite and deftly engage the international community, especially countries with significant influence over various actors in Myanmar, to send a clear and resounding message to Myanmar that the only way forward is to cease violence and begin talks, then there may be a real chance for peace. The upcoming Asean Troika Plus meeting that will take place after the Asean Summit in October offers such an opportunity to synergise international efforts.
It is in the interests of Thailand, Asean and the international community to ensure a peaceful, stable and unified Myanmar, but beyond the realpolitik talk, Thailand has a moral commitment to the people in Myanmar to be a catalyst for peace. We must not lose sight of that, and we must not lose sight of Myanmar. Sihasak Phuangketkeow is Former Vice Minister for Foreign Affairs and Secretary-General of the Asian Peace and Reconciliation Council.
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