View from Manila: The world under Trump (again)

MANILA, Philippines – At the US Senate, days before his principal’s official return to the White House, incoming US defense chief Pete Hegseth was asked quite a few basic things in the world of security and diplomacy: What’s the importance of any of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) members to the US, what type of agreements does the US have with these members, and how many countries are in the bloc, anyway? The occasional Fox & Friends Weekend host and former US Army National Guard admitted he did not know how many countries were part of ASEAN, but that he did “know we have allies in South Korea and Japan, and in AUKUS with Australia.” Democratic Senator Tammy Duckworth, a retired Army National Guard lieutenant colonel and war veteran, noted that none of the three countries he name-dropped were members of ASEAN. The snippet — which made the rounds in the region — was only one of the handful of tense exchanges during Hegseth’s confirmation hearing.

It’s also, perhaps, a pessimistic preview of the kind of personalities American allies will have to figure out when Donald Trump takes his oath (again) as the President of the United States. Must Read Triumphant Trump returns to White House, launching new era of upheaval Joshua Espeña, who teaches international studies at the Polytechnic University of the Philippines, has a less bleak view. “If the entire ASEAN is not Trump’s priority then those who are willing to work closely with him — such as Marcos the cosmopolitan man — can be a way forward.



Moreover, it also presents an opportunity for the Philippines to make its position clearer than ever and not to let half-baked assumptions rule at the table. Ineptitude must meet relentlessness,” he told Rappler. Trump has, for the most part, signaled a desire to scale back from America’s international engagements and commitments, while also pushing forward strange proposals, including purchasing Greenland (which is not for sale).

It’s in this context that makes Japanese Foreign Minister Iwaya Takeshi’s January 15 to Manila extra-significant, even if there were no breakthrough deals or major announcements. After all, he came after the Philippine Senate ratified the country’s Reciprocal Access Agreement with Japan and as Tokyo signals its desire to keep America invested in the region. A ‘severe strategic environment’ Speaking to reporters after a bilateral meeting, Iwaya emphasized the “increasingly severe strategic environment in the region” and how it was important for Japan, the Philippines, and the United States to “maintain and strengthen” even under Trump the trilateral relationship that began under outgoing US president Joe Biden.

“Trilateral cooperation is a highly important framework in realizing free and open Indo-Pacific based on rule of law,” Iwaya, who will be attending Trump’s inauguration, told reporters in Manila. The Manila visit was his first to an ASEAN country in 2025. Must Read Japan ‘gravely concerned’ about maritime tensions escalating, foreign minister says “We reaffirmed to continue our communication with the incoming US administration.

Southeast Asia is located at a strategic pivot in the Indo-Pacific...

thus, partnership with Southeast Asia is vital for regional stability. We will approach the next US administration to convey that constructive commitment of the United States in this region is important, also for the United States itself,” added the Japanese minister. Iwaya’s words and actions carry weight, especially in a country that’s been at the forefront in battling growing Chinese maritime aggression, and whose security prowess hinges heavily on its ties with the US and Japan.

Espeña sees two messages in the visit — of Tokyo’s “willingness to double down on its commitment to a defense partnership with Manila” despite its own domestic political situation, and wanting to “[keep] its Indo-Pacific network intact and [ensure] that its presence is welcome and reliable amid geopolitical shifts.” Iwaya seemed to be already working double time. Tokyo announced plans to organize a meeting between the QUAD’s foreign ministers — the US, Japan, Australia, and India — on January 21, or the day after Trump’s inauguration.

Marco Rubio, Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, would be a participant in that first Trump 2.0-era foreign ministers QUAD meeting. He said during his Senate confirmation hearing on January 16: “The Chinese believe that the US are a great power in inevitable decline and that they are in inevitable rise.

They already are...

and we are going to have to deal with them.” He continued: “The danger is, because of our own actions..

. we allowed them for years to pretend that they were some developing country, so we should allow them to continue to cheat on trade and commence..

. They lied about not militarizing island chains in the South China Sea and the like.” Espeña said, “Hegseth’s ineptitude at the Senate hearing might be disheartening but we must look beyond personalities by examining what the entire Trump team says.

” In the same hearing, Rubio alluded to the China Coast Guard “monster ship” that had been loitering in an area close to the coast of Zambales. Referring to this and previous cases of Chinese harassment, the incoming State Department chief added: “The actions [China] are taking now are deeply destabilizing. They are forcing us to take counter-actions because we have commitments to the Philippines and we have commitments to Taiwan that we intend to keep.

” Philippine Foreign Secretary Enrique Manalo, who has overseen the “hyperdrive” in US-Philippine bilateral ties under Biden, outgoing State Secretary Antony Blinken, and outgoing Defense Chief Lloyd Austin, downplayed speculation that the Trump administration would be less interested in engagement with the Indo-Pacific. “Well, we’ve not heard anything to that effect. I mean, there has been speculation, but from Washington [DC], we have not heard any, or seen any, any indication on that,” he told Nikkei in an interview on the sideline of the ASEAN Foreign Minister’s retreat in Malaysia.

We’re told the quick phone call between Marcos and Trump back in November 2024 was a promising start. It’s made Filipino officials confident, or at least less nervous, over bilateral relations under a second Trump presidency. Ambassador Babe Romualdez, Marcos’ cousin, has already met Trump in Florida and will be attending the inauguration.

Throw in a little bit of former first lady Imelda Marcos, who is apparently more familiar to Trump than the president himself, and maybe the Philippines can somehow schmooze its way into the temperamental and unpredictable Trump’s good graces. But is that we aspire for? Certainly not. While in Malaysia, Manalo again made the call for the conclusion of the ASEAN-China Code of Conduct on the South China Sea, even as contentious points seem to remain contentious after over a decade of negotiations.

It’s clear to both the Philippines and ASEAN, Espeña told me, that “its centrality is important in understanding and engaging the mega-region.” We’re beginning to sound like a broken record — going on about the importance of stability in the South China Sea and other maritime areas in the region, or the importance of diplomacy and multilateral engagements, and why the Philippines needed to accelerate its defense modernization yesterday. But to survive the “severe strategic environment,” as our Japanese neighbors put it, Manila must not just look at improving ties with its former colonizers America and Japan.

The view has to go beyond its usual like-minded friends in Australia and the European Union, or countries like Canada, France, and New Zealand, which all hope to sign military deals with Manila. There’s also ASEAN, the Pacific Islands, and yes, even our aggressive and belligerent neighbor that is China. – Rappler.

com ( Editor’s note : ASEAN’s founding members are Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand. Vietnam, Laos, Brunei, Myanmar, and Cambodia later joined the block. East Timor is also expected to soon join the bloc as a full-fledged member.

The US has a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership with ASEAN. Once a year, ASEAN hosts the leaders-level ASEAN-US Summit. The Philippines is a treaty-ally of the US .

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