‘Trump slump’ in travel to U.S. could hit hard in San Diego, where tourism looms large

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International arrivals are plummeting across the board as tourists angered by Trump's tariffs and rhetoric cancel their U.S. plans.

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By clicking sign up, you agree to our terms . Olja Ivanic looked forward to welcoming some cousins from Sweden to her home in June. Ivanic and the four travelers were planning to go hiking in Colorado and then visit California.



But then President Donald Trump berated Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in a February meeting at the White House. Ivanic’s relatives immediately canceled their scheduled trip and decided to vacation in Europe instead. “The way (Trump) treated a democratic president that’s in a war was beyond comprehensible to them,” said Ivanic, who is the U.

S. CEO of Austria-based health startup Longevity Labs. The U.

S. tourism industry expected 2025 to be another good year in terms of foreign travelers. The number of international visitors to the United States jumped in 2024, and some forecasts predicted arrivals from abroad this year would reach pre-COVID levels.

San Diego, which depends on tourism dollars – and once again is promoting tourism abroad, including in the U.K., Germany, Australia and Japan – had relied on a projection of 8.

7% growth in international travel to the U.S. this year, according to a 2024 report by the San Diego Tourism Marketing District .

That travel makes up a significant slice of the total visitors who flock to San Diego each year. In 2023, the region drew 31.8 million visitors, which led to $14.

3 billion in visitor spending at hotels, museums, attractions, small businesses, restaurants and more, according to the San Diego Tourism Authority. But international arrivals are plummeting across the board. Angered by Trump’s tariffs and rhetoric , and alarmed by reports of tourists being arrested at the border , some citizens of other countries are staying away from the U.

S. and choosing to travel elsewhere. The federal government’s National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures Tuesday showing visits to the U.

S. from overseas fell 11.6% in March compared to the same month last year.

The figures did not include land crossings from Mexico. But air travel from Mexico has dropped 23%. For the January-March period, 7.

1 million visitors entered the U.S. from overseas, 3.

3% fewer than during the first three months of 2024. The travel forecasting company Tourism Economics , cited by San Diego tourism officials in their 2024 report, revised its annual outlook last week to predict a 9.4% decline.

Tourism Economics expects some of the steepest declines will be from Canada, where Trump’s repeated suggestion that the country should become the 51st state and tariffs on close trading partners have angered residents. Canada was the largest source of visitors to the U.S.

in 2024, with more than 20.2 million, according to U.S.

government data. It is also one of the countries where San Diego sends its tourism marketing dollars. Flight Centre Travel Group Canada, a travel booking site, said leisure bookings to U.

S. destinations were down 40% in March compared to the same month a year ago. Air Canada has reduced its schedule of spring flights to Florida, Las Vegas and Arizona due to lack of demand.

The National Travel and Tourism Office gave a rosier forecast last month for international travel to the U.S. Based on 2024 travel patterns, the office said it expected arrivals to increase 6.

5% to 77.1 million this year and surpass 2019 levels in 2026. But Tourism Economics said the impact of the less favorable view of the U.

S. from abroad could be severe enough that international visits won’t surpass pre-pandemic levels until 2029. “The survey data is all indicating a significant mix of cancellations and a massive drop in intent to travel,” Tourism Economics President Adam Sacks said.

According to the government data released Tuesday, international arrivals from China were down nearly 1%. Leisure trips by Chinese citizens to places like Disneyland, Hawaii and New York are decreasing dramatically and likely won’t pick up again until Trump has left office, said Wolfgang Georg Arlt, the CEO of the China Outbound Tourism Research Institute. He dubs it the “Trump Slump.

” That slump has financial consequences. Tourism Economics expects U.S.

spending by international visitors to drop by $9 billion this year. Visit California adjusted its 2025 projections in March. Officials had expected visitor spending to grow by 6.

2% compared to 2024, but revised the rate, dropping it to 2.3% due to Trump policies. Times of San Diego is devoted to producing timely, comprehensive news about San Diego County.

Your donation helps keep our work free-to-read, funds reporters who cover local issues and allows us to write stories that hold public officials accountable. Join the growing list of donors investing in our community's long-term future. “The new administration has introduced significant policy shifts even in the short time since this forecast was finalized,” they wrote.

“These rapidly changing conditions introduce further risk to the forecast, specifically the international visitor forecast, stemming from the potential economic repercussions of a trade war and related negative consumer sentiment.” Marco Jahn is the president and CEO of New World Travel, a California company that works with overseas operators on vacation packages and activity planning. It arranges hotels and rental cars for a families that want to take driving tours of U.

S. national parks, for example. Jahn said bookings have dropped between 20% and 50%, depending on the source market, over the last eight to 10 weeks.

He notes particular declines from Scandinavia, where Trump’s repeated threat to take control of Greenland , a self-governing territory of NATO ally Denmark , has antagonized citizens . “The U.S.

is not perceived as a welcoming destination,” Jahn said. Beyond, a revenue management platform for vacation rental owners, said Canadian searches for short-term rentals in the U.S.

plunged 44% after Feb. 1, when Trump first announced a 25% tariff on goods from Canada and Mexico. American Ring Travel, a tour operator based in California, offers carbon-neutral bus tours of the U.

S. that often attract eco-conscious travelers from Europe, said Richard Groesz, the company’s director of contracting. But bookings from Germany flattened starting in January after Elon Musk threw his support behind a far-right political party in that country’s federal election, Groesz said.

There are other issues impacting foreign visits. The U.S.

has been the top destination by country for Japanese tourists for years, but data compiled by JTB Tourism Research & Consulting showed South Korea topped the U.S. in January.

The weak yen – not Trump – is likely the biggest factor dampening the attraction of the U.S., said Takaaki Mitamura, a spokesperson for Tokyo-based travel agent Veltra Corp.

Travelers are picking destinations where the currency effect isn’t as big, like South Korea, Taiwan, Thailand and Australia, he said. Jennifer VIgil of Times of San Diego contributed to this report. Get Our Free Daily Email Newsletter Get the latest local and California news from Times of San Diego delivered to your inbox at 8 a.

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