Tropical Depression Kristine slows down, rapid intensification not ruled out

Environmental conditions in the Philippine Sea are 'favorable' for tropical cyclone intensification

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MANILA, Philippines – Tropical Depression Kristine slowed down on Monday afternoon, October 21, while still moving over the Philippine Sea, where it might rapidly intensify in the next few days. Kristine was last spotted 760 kilometers east of Catarman, Northern Samar, at 4 pm on Monday. The tropical depression is moving west at only 15 kilometers per hour, slower than its previous speed of 30 km/h.

The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical, and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) said in a briefing past 5 pm that Kristine still has maximum sustained winds of 55 km/h and gustiness of up to 70 km/h. However, “since this tropical cyclone is still over the Philippine Sea, rapid intensification is not ruled out given the favorable environmental conditions,” PAGASA said. Tropical cyclones are fueled by warm air.



Kristine could strengthen into a tropical storm within 12 hours; a severe tropical storm on Wednesday, October 23; and a typhoon on Thursday, October 24, before making landfall. PAGASA now sees Kristine making landfall in Northern Luzon possibly as early as Thursday evening, or by Friday morning, October 25, at the latest. But the weather bureau reiterated that the tropical cyclone’s track can still change.

Areas affected by rain from Kristine should watch out for floods and landslides. The most affected areas are the following: Monday afternoon, October 21, to Tuesday afternoon , October 22 Heavy to intense rain (100-200 millimeters): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur, Northern Samar Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Romblon, Marinduque, Quezon, rest of Bicol, rest of Eastern Visayas Tuesday afternoon , October 22, to Wednesday afternoon , October 23 Intense to torrential rain (more than 200 mm): Catanduanes, Camarines Norte, Camarines Sur Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): rest of Bicol, Northern Samar, Samar, Eastern Samar Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): Cagayan Valley, Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Eastern Visayas, Quezon, Romblon, Marinduque, Aurora Wednesday afternoon , October 23, to Thursday afternoon , October 24 Heavy to intense rain (100-200 mm): Cagayan, Isabela, Apayao, Aurora, Quezon Moderate to heavy rain (50-100 mm): rest of Cordillera Administrative Region, rest of Cagayan Valley, Ilocos Region For the rest of Monday, the trough or extension of the tropical depression will continue to trigger scattered rain and thunderstorms in Metro Manila, Mimaropa, the rest of Calabarzon, Aurora, the rest of the Visayas, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Caraga, and Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao. The rest of the country may have isolated rain showers or thunderstorms on Monday evening, too, because of Kristine’s trough.

ALSO ON RAPPLER Need data on Filipino children? Check out this Unicef, PH gov’t digital platform [Rappler’s Best] Pockets of hope Collection: Investigative, in-depth stories of #FactsMatter, Aries Rufo Journalism fellows Meanwhile, Signal No. 1 is in effect for more areas as of 5 pm, in anticipation of strong winds from Kristine: southeastern part of Isabela (Palanan, Dinapigue) Aurora northern and eastern parts of Quezon (Tagkawayan, Guinayangan, Buenavista, San Narciso, San Andres, General Nakar, Pitogo, San Francisco, Calauag, Pagbilao, Infanta, Lopez, Catanauan, Mulanay, Unisan, General Luna, Plaridel, Quezon, Alabat, Sampaloc, Padre Burgos, Macalelon, Mauban, Perez, Agdangan, Gumaca, Atimonan, Real) including Polillo Islands Camarines Norte Camarines Sur Catanduanes Albay Sorsogon Masbate including Ticao Island and Burias Island Eastern Samar Northern Samar Samar Leyte Biliran Southern Leyte Dinagat Islands Surigao del Norte including Siargao-Bucas Grande Group The highest tropical cyclone wind signal due to Kristine could be Signal No. 4.

PAGASA added that “the wind flow coming towards the circulation” of the tropical depression and the northeasterly windflow may bring strong to gale-force gusts to these areas: Monday, October 21 Batanes, Cagayan, Ilocos Norte, southern part of Palawan, Siquijor, Bohol, Zamboanga Peninsula, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Bangsamoro Autonomous Region in Muslim Mindanao, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental Tuesday, October 22 Batanes, Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Ilocos Sur, Palawan, Romblon, Aklan, Antique, Negros Island Region, northern part of Cebu, Bohol, Southern Leyte, Zamboanga del Norte, Northern Mindanao, Dinagat Islands, Surigao del Norte, Agusan del Norte, Sarangani, Davao del Sur, Davao Oriental Wednesday, October 23 Mimaropa, Visayas, Mindanao Must Read #WalangPasok: Class suspensions, Tuesday, October 22, 2024 For coastal waters in the next 24 hours, up to very rough seas are expected in the northern and eastern seaboards of Bicol (waves up to 5.5 meters high); northern and eastern seaboards of Northern Samar (waves up to 5 meters high); and seaboards of Isabela, Aurora, and Polillo Islands, as well as eastern seaboard of mainland Cagayan (waves up to 4.5 meters high).

Travel is risky for all vessels. Up to rough seas are seen in the seaboard of Batanes, remaining seaboards of Cagayan including Babuyan Islands, and eastern seaboard of Eastern Samar (waves up to 4 meters high); remaining seaboards of Northern Luzon, seaboard of Dinagat Islands, and seaboard of Surigao del Norte (waves up to 3.5 meters high); and seaboards of Bohol, Siquijor, and Camiguin, as well as eastern seaboard of the Davao Region and eastern seaboard of mainland Quezon (waves up to 3 meters high).

Small vessels should not venture out to sea. Up to moderate seas will persist in the remaining seaboards of the country (waves up to 2.5 meters high).

Small vessels should take precautionary measures or avoid sailing, if possible. Kristine is the country’s 11th tropical cyclone for 2024 and the first for October. It could leave the Philippine Area of Responsibility on Saturday, October 26.

– Rappler.com.