Trade Setup for April 16: Nifty's 900-point rally in two sessions may pause as IT heavyweights report results

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The Indian equity market recovered all the losses seen after US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement on April 2. This made India the first major equity market globally to erase the tariff-induced losses.

It was yet another gap-up opening for the Indian markets, with the benchmark Nifty 50 index jumping 540 points as trading resumed after a long weekend. The Nifty recovered all the losses seen after US President Donald Trump's reciprocal tariff announcement earlier this month. Building on Friday's big move, the frontline indices rose 2–3% on Tuesday, April 15, surpassing their closing levels from April 2.

This made India the first major equity market globally to erase the tariff-induced losses. In contrast, a broader gauge of Asian equities remains down more than 3% since the tariff announcements. After a strong opening, the Nifty managed to sustain higher levels and ended the day with hefty gains of 500 points, closing at 23,329.



From the April 7 low of 21,743, the index has risen more than 1,600 points in just five trading sessions. Broader market indices mirrored the benchmark's positive momentum. The Nifty Midcap 100 and Smallcap 100 indices witnessed strong gains of 2.

90% and 3.10%, respectively, indicating widespread buying interest. Across sectors, bullish sentiment prevailed, with all sectoral indices closing in the green for the second straight day.

The volatility index slipped 19%. As many as 49 of the 50 Nifty stocks ended higher, rising up to 7%. Big gains in heavyweights like Reliance Industries, HDFC Bank, and ICICI Bank lifted the Nifty.

Shares of Tata Motors Ltd ., Samvardhana Motherson Ltd., and Sona BLW Ltd.

rose up to 8%, after US President Donald Trump's latest comments on auto tariffs. He said that he is looking to "help some of the car companies," as they need "a little bit more time" to shift production to the US. BSE-listed companies added ₹11 lakh crore in market capitalisation in March, taking the total market cap to ₹412 lakh crore.

Investors will be closely tracking the retail inflation (CPI) data to be released post-market on Tuesday. Further, focus will be on the key Q4 earnings announcements, including those from Wipro and Angel One tomorrow. Additionally, stocks like Ireda, ICICI Lombard General Insurance Company, ICICI Prudential Life Insurance Company will also be in the spotlight tomorrow, as these companies reported their Q4 numbers after market hours on Tuesday.

"We expect positive momentum to continue in the market, on hopes of global trade settlements and softening in US reciprocal tariffs," said Siddhartha Khemka of Motilal Oswal. What did the Nifty 50 charts indicate? Nagaraj Shetti of HDFC Securities believes the near-term uptrend of Nifty remains intact. "The next upside targets to be watched around 23,650 and 23,870 levels in the next 1-2 weeks.

Immediate support is placed at 23,200 levels." Although the sentiment appears positive, a hint of fatigue is visible in the index following the steep rally over the past few days, said Rupak De of LKP Securities. Therefore, he said that the possibility of a minor pullback on the downside cannot be ruled out.

"Support is placed at 23,300; a decisive break below this level could trigger a correction towards 23,000. Resistance is placed at 23,370 and 23,650," De added. "Technically, the Nifty has decisively reclaimed levels above its 20, 50, and 100-day EMAs, a clearly encouraging sign for the bulls.

Looking ahead, the next significant resistance level for the Nifty appears to be around 23,869, which coincides with the previous swing high. On the downside, the 22,900-23,000 zone is likely to provide immediate support for the index," said Nandish Shah - Deputy Vice President at HDFC Securities..