1 week Ago By Bernama-dpa
BERLIN: Despite the looming escalation in the trade conflict between the EU and the United States, US trade policy expert Laura von Daniels still sees chances for a negotiated solution."There are still certain loopholes in Trump's tariff announcements. There is room for manoeuvre, both positively and negatively," the political scientist from the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin told dpa on Tuesday.
While the blanket minimum 10 per cent US tariffs on imports from all countries are unlikely to be reversed, von Daniels believes negotiations regarding the planned country-specific surcharges, which are set to take effect on Wednesday, are possible.For the EU, Trump has announced a tariff rate of 20 per cent, while the bloc has said it wants a free trade deal with the US on industrial goods. But von Daniels also warned that the situation could worsen.
Trump could impose additional tariffs on specific industries - such as the pharmaceutical sector - or try to prohibit European companies from exporting certain technologies to China."This could lead to the collapse of another business sector," she said.At the same time, Europe's security dependence on the US significantly limits the EU's options for countermeasures, such as actions against US digital corporations, the expert added.
"Trump links trade policy with security policy. He ties tariff threats to demands for higher defence spending," von Daniels explained.She suggested it is even conceivable that Trump might use NATO membership or US security guarantees for Europe as leverage.
How long and how resolutely Trump continues this course could depend on whether broader protests arise in the US or whether his own voter base turns against him.According to von Daniels, initial models show that the tariffs could cost an average US household US$3,000 to US$5,000 annually."Trump is harming a large portion of his own supporters," she said.
It is also possible that Trump may soon distance himself from his government adviser Elon Musk, von Daniels added, as a symbolic act to appease his base.Trump could signal, "I'm listening and taking action."The president is already aware that Musk's mass layoffs and budget cuts have not been well-received among his voter base, and he has increasingly moved away from Musk's position in recent appearances.
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