1 day Ago By Tim Kelly
Juan Soto, Corbin Burnes, Blake Snell and a bulk of the names on B/R's original top 25 free agents list this offseason have signed contracts. However, nine names still remain on the market from the top 25 list that we opened the offseason with. With just over a month until pitchers and catchers report to Spring Training, here's the latest predictions on where the nine remaining players from B/R's top free agents list will land.
2024 Stats: 54 G, 2.45 ERA, 3.24 FIP, 26-for-31 SV, 1.
2 WAR Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Two years, $23 million Team Prediction: Chicago Cubs The Philadelphia Phillies hoped that when they acquired Carlos Estévez from the Los Angeles Angels in July, it would help to put them over the top in the postseason. Instead, the lasting memory of Estévez's time with the Phillies is likely going to be him giving up a go-ahead grand slam to Francisco Lindor in Game 4 of the NLDS. At one point last year, Estévez looked like he could command a three-year deal in free agency.
But even in outings where he didn't give up runs late in the regular season, it was clear that Estévez was leaking a bit of oil . He's a jovial guy that can be an effective piece in the bullpen. He's probably not the No.
1 reliever in a playoff-caliber bullpen. That's fine, there's still plenty of need for capable set-up men, particularly when they can close if needed. Having already acquired Eli Morgan from the Cleveland Guardians, the Cubs could build a pretty strong bullpen for manager Craig Counsell if they added Estévez to a unit that also includes Porter Hodge and Tyson Miller.
2024 Stats: .280/.380/.
459, 24 HR, 85 RBI, 76 BB, .839 OPS, 4.3 WAR Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Two years, $34 million Team Prediction: San Diego Padres A team like the Kansas City Royals could probably benefit from adding Jurickson Profar, but a return to the San Diego Padres still makes the most sense.
Just one year after the Colorado Rockies released him during the season, Profar turned in the finest campaign of his career. Profar homered 24 times, drove in 85 runs, walked 76 times and posted an .839 OPS.
Not only was he an All-Star for the first time in his career, but also won a Silver Slugger. Still, it's understandable that just a year after a disastrous campaign spent mostly with the Rockies that teams are a bit skeptical of Profar. Is he better than he showed in 2023? Absolutely.
Will he ever match what he did in 2024? Probably not. There's an effective player here who can hit near the top of the order at his best. But he's going to be 32 years old in February, so it's hard to imagine him ultimately getting the "deal in the three-year-plus range" that ESPN's Jeff Passan reported he was looking for last month.
A two-year deal that allows Profar to return to the Padres—who do have a hole in left field without him—would be a fair resolution. 2024 Stats: .233/.
330/.370, 11 HR, 47 RBI, 58 BB, .700 OPS, 2.
6 WAR Age in 2025: 29 Contract Prediction: One year, $14 million Team Prediction: Seattle Mariners The San Francisco Giants and Los Angeles Dodgers both seemed to be potential landing spots for Ha-Seong Kim when free agency began, but each team has gone in other directions this winter. A reunion with the Padres can't be ruled out, but unless they are able to clear some financial flexibility by trading Luis Arráez or Jake Cronenworth, that would seem unlikely. The Seattle Mariners have done next-to-nothing to improve an offense that wasted arguably the top starting rotation in baseball last season, and Kim alone would hardly rectify what was the 21st-ranked offense in terms of runs scored in 2024.
But Kim is an elite defender, who is capable of playing third or second base on a full-time basis, depending upon on the rest of the offseason plays out for president of baseball operations Jerry Dipoto. He would also offer an insurance policy for J.P.
Crawford at shortstop. The version of Kim that hit 17 home runs, posted 60 RBI, walked 75 times and stole 38 bases for the Padres in 2023 would definitely be a much-needed offensive upgrade for the Mariners. Even if that season proves to be something of an outlier offensively, Kim would probably be an upgrade over either Ryan Bliss or Dylan Moore, both of whom are penciled in as starting infielders currently.
Kim is recovering from shoulder surgery in October, which means he may not be ready for Opening Day. But both the injury and the fact that he's not a hitter who relies on driving the ball out of the ballpark might make him more willing to accept an offer to play his home games at T-Mobile Park than some of the other remaining position players on the market. If Kim proves to be healthy, the Mariners would be able to extend a qualifying offer to him next offseason.
He could also be a trade candidate in the summer if Seattle isn't in contention. 2024 Stats: 68 G, 2.17 ERA, 2.
52 FIP, 10-for-13 SV, 2.0 WAR Age in 2025: 32 Contract Prediction: Three years, $39 million Team Prediction: Atlanta Braves Jeff Hoffman is difficult to project right now, because it's unclear if he's going to sign to be a reliever or a starting pitcher. Utilizing a nasty slider, Hoffman proved to be a late bloomer with the Phillies over the past two seasons, posting a 2.
28 ERA over 122 appearances out of the bullpen. He was an All-Star in 2024. With that said, there's been buzz about the former first-round pick potentially getting an opportunity to start again this offseason, following the paths of Jordan Hicks, Reynaldo López and Clay Holmes.
In fact, ESPN's Jeff Passan reported last month that Hoffman had actually " received more interest from teams in that role." Despite the amount of success he had with the Phillies and repeatedly saying he hoped to return to Philadelphia, that appears unlikely. The Phillies have perhaps the best starting rotation in baseball, so they aren't going to have interest in him as a starter.
Even as a reliever, the Phillies have already pivoted to Jordan Romano, and president of baseball operations Dave Dombrowski has been hesitant to make long-term commitments to relievers during his time running the front office. The Braves had success reconverting López to starting a year ago. But López and Chris Sale both carry relatively high injury risk.
As does Spencer Strider, who is coming back from an internal brace procedure that essentially cost him the entire 2024 season. The upside of the Braves starting rotation is high, but after losing both Max Fried and Charlie Morton in free agency, they need another arm. Hoffman could be that.
If using Hoffman as a starter doesn't work or the Braves end up with a surplus of starting pitching depth, he could move to the bullpen and become one of the top set-up men for closer Raisel Iglesias. 2024 Stats: 72 G, 2.73 ERA, 2.
33 FIP, 22-for-24 SV, 1.6 WAR Age in 2025: 30 Contract Prediction: Three years, $45 million Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays B/R originally predicted a three-year, $48 million deal for Tanner Scott at the beginning of the offseason, with skepticism that just because he was the top reliever available this offseason that meant he would get four years. We'll stick with three years for Scott, and given how little buzz there's been on the relief market overall, he may not even get quite as much overall as initially anticipated.
Scott has been one of the most successful relievers in baseball over the past two seasons with a 2.04 ERA and 2.53 FIP across 146 games.
Still, you feel like he might be more like the top set-up man in the bullpen for a World Series contender, as opposed to the closer. He can close, but there's just not going to be teams willing to pay him like Edwin Díaz or Josh Hader. The Blue Jays are a team that's being linked with pretty much every notable free agent right now, but Scott makes a ton of sense for them.
They had a 4.82 bullpen ERA last season, the second-worst mark in baseball. The aforementioned Romano was non-tendered and left to sign with the Phillies .
Whether it's as Toronto's closer or their top set-up man, the Blue Jays just need to add quality arms to repair the back end of their bullpen. 2024 Stats: 13-7, 3.17 ERA, 3.
48 FIP, 194 K, 3.2 WAR , 162 IP Age in 2025: 29 Contract Prediction: Three years, $60 million with opt-out available after 2026 Team Prediction: Baltimore Orioles A reunion with the Baltimore Orioles—whom he spent the second half of the 2023 season with—seemed to be the best fit for Jack Flaherty after a career-reviving campaign in 2024. But the Orioles signed Charlie Morton to a one-year, $15 million deal on Friday, seemingly taking them out of the sweepstakes for Flaherty.
So what about a reunion with another former employer in the Tigers? Detroit took a risk on Flaherty last offseason, signing him to a one-year, $14 million deal after a string of injury-riddled seasons. Flaherty was an excellent No. 2 to compliment eventual AL Cy Young Award winner Tarik Skubal, going 7-5 with a 2.
95 ERA across 18 starts for the Tigers. Thinking they didn't have a realistic path to the postseason, the Tigers traded Flaherty to the Los Angeles Dodgers in July. The move worked out well for both sides, as Flaherty got to win a World Series with the team he grew up rooting for.
Meanwhile, the Tigers got back Trey Sweeney, who played a good shortstop for a Detroit team that stormed back to not only make the playoffs, but upset the Houston Astros in the ALWCS. Still, for the Tigers to build on what was a Cinderella season, they'll need to add more proven pieces. They've already signed Alex Cobb to a one-year, $15 million deal, kind of a curious pact considering he's 37 and made just three regular-season starts this past year.
In no way should that move preclude the Tigers from adding another arm. Flaherty makes a ton of sense. He's already proven capable of having success in Detroit, and because the Tigers traded him mid-season, he wasn't eligible to receive a qualifying offer.
So signing him wouldn't require giving up draft compensation. 2024 Stats: .235/.
308/.506, 44 HR, 102 RBI, 58 BB, .814 OPS, 3.
3 WAR Age in 2025: 30 Contract Prediction: Four years, $80 million Team Prediction: Toronto Blue Jays What's there to like about Anthony Santander? He's a switch-hitting slugger that only struck out 129 times this past season. That's an easy sell. On the flip side, though, Santander has a qualifying offer attached to him, so signing him will require giving up draft compensation for any team other than the incumbent Orioles.
It's true he doesn't strike out as much as most power hitters, but he also doesn't walk as much as most sluggers, as the 58 a year ago were a career-high. He has just a .307 career on-base percentage.
When the offseason started, we thought Santander would top the five-year, $100 million deal that Nick Castellanos signed with the Phillies coming into the 2022 season. But when you also factor in that Santander is at best an average fielder, we're now skeptical he'll have enough suitors to get a five-year deal. Teoscar Hernández just got a three-year, $66 million deal to return to the Dodgers, although that deal includes significant deferrals.
Santander should still get a fourth guaranteed year, as opposed to Hernández, whose deal just has a $15 million club option for a fourth year that's unlikely to be picked up. A four-year, $80 million with no deferrals would give him a better deal than Hernández, although it would likely represent a much smaller deal than what Santander entered the winner hoping for. The Blue Jays are a team that's seemed desperate to make an impact signing this offseason, and they have a need for a corner outfielder.
After having watched Santander play for the division-rival Orioles for parts of eight seasons, they surely recognize what he could bring to their team. Ari Alexander of KPRC has reported that the Blue Jays have made an offer to Santander. 2024 Stats: .
260/.315/.453, 26 HR, 75 RBI, 44 BB, .
768 OPS, 4.1 WAR Age in 2025: 31 Contract Prediction: Three years, $90 million with player opt outs available after 2025 and 2026 Team Prediction: Detroit Tigers At the outset of the offseason, B/R's prediction was that Bregman would sign a five-year, $130 million contract that included a $26 million club option to return to the Houston Astros. That will not be happening.
The Astros acquired Isaac Parades from the Chicago Cubs in the Kyle Tucker trade, and then signed veteran first baseman Christian Walker to a three-year, $60 million deal. They are set at corner infield, and still have Jose Altuve at second base. After nine years in Houston, Bregman will be playing elsewhere next season.
Still, as much as the Boras client may want $200+ million this offseason, we remain skeptical that he'll actually get that. Bregman was a superstar in 2018 and 2019, posting a .970 OPS.
In the five seasons since then, he's been a very good player, but the .795 OPS he's posted over the last half decade doesn't scream $200+ million. He did just win a Gold Glove Award at third base, and has an extended postseason resume.
There's plenty to like about Bregman. There don't seem to be a ton of teams who love him lining up to give him $200+ million, including the one that he's a franchise icon for. Perhaps then he can go the route that both Cody Bellinger, Matt Chapman and Blake Snell—three other Scott Boras clients—went last offseason and sign a shorter deal that gives him the chance to opt out and return to the market if he thinks he can make more next winter.
Bellinger got three years and $80 million last winter. Bregman is a better player, but also a few years older. So a slightly larger deal probably makes sense for all involved.
A short-term term deal with the Tigers makes sense. It gives a young team that just made the postseason a veteran presence to help them potentially become a regular in the postseason. Signing with Detroit would reunite Bregman with A.
J. Hinch, who was his skipper in Houston for the first four seasons of his career. If Bregman has a great year and opts out, then Jace Jung can take over as the starting third baseman in 2026 if the Tigers don't want to make a long-term investment in him.
But if the two sides want to extend the arrangement, Jung could become a trade chip. 2024 Stats: .240/.
329/.459, 34 HR, 88 RBI, 70 BB, .788 OPS, 2.
1 WAR Age in 2025: 30 Contract Prediction: Five years, $135 million Team Prediction: New York Mets This is our original contract and team prediction for Pete Alonso, and we're sticking with it. It feels like there's been a massive overcorrection to megadeals for first baseman—Albert Pujols, Prince Fielder and Ryan Howard, to name a few—aging poorly last decade. But Alonso only just turned 30, so a five-year commitment feels more than fair.
Maybe he'll be more of a DH in the back half of the deal. In the meantime, the Mets will have one of the premier first basemen in the sport. Since the start of the 2021 season, Alonso is fourth in home runs (157) and third in RBI (431).
If you need an idea of how high of a bar he's set for himself as a slugger, Alonso just hit 34 home runs in what was considered a down year. Of course, that down regular season came before a postseason where he posted a .999 OPS and helped the Mets make a rather shocking run to the NLCS.
An interesting comp here is Freddie Freeman. No one's arguing Alonso is as good as Freeman. However, Freeman became a free agent before his age-32 season, as opposed to Alonso heading into his age-30 campaign.
Freeman got six years and $162 million from the Dodgers, although his deal includes $57 million in deferrals until 2028-2040, making the present-day value more like $148 million. Alonso might not get the sixth year that Freeman got, but if he gets a $27 million average annual value with no deferrals, that would be moving the market forward at first base. Maybe a team like the Mariners will come in and give Alonso enough hazard pay that he can't say no.
But it just feels like he should be a lifelong Met..
