2 weeks Ago
Pashupati Advani , Founder, Global Foray , points out that Donald Trump does not come into the White House until January. So, for the next three to four months there are going to be no cuts. Even when he gets into the White House it is going to be tough for him to cut rates.
As long as rates are where they are, plus the Japan carry trade has gone, there will be no real reason to stimulate the markets. We are seeing selling from FIIs because the Japan carry trade is also vanishing and all these things are going to push nominal asset values down. Everything is down 1%, 2%, maybe 3% but it will come back.
So, one should hold on. Basically, it is a time to lighten up because we are still headed downwards, that is my personal thought. Are you looking at buying into these dips, at least in certain stocks and pockets or just sitting on the sidelines for now? Pashupati Advani: I am still a little nervous because there are some things that are going to affect India going forward and the FII selling is still not stopped.
So, we are seeing good names come cheaper. As long as it is continuing to go, when you have largecaps falling by 1.5-2% that means that the blood is still out there.
I am still a little cautious. Once it settles down and then turns, then one can take a look at maybe buying again if it is up 3-4% off the lows. But still, it seems to be going down.
What have you got your eyes on? What would you be buying or at least have on your radar? Pashupati Advani: No, you are getting the opportunity to buy big stocks. One can look at stocks like Reliance . HDFC Bank has jumped up a little bit, but it probably is attractive when it comes back into the 1600s.
Some pharma stocks that I like will also do well. Maybe things like Asian Paints , some of the Tata companies, the big blue chips because they are the ones that seem to have fallen off and that is what is pulling the Nifty and the Sensex down. So, you are going to have an opportunity to get in.
I still think there is a bit of time for this because it is still not settled because every day we are still seeing negative figures from the foreign investors and until that stops for two-three days. I will not jump into the water with my head first if you know what I mean. Will you be sitting on the sidelines come tomorrow when Swiggy lists on the bourses? For now, the expectation is it is going to be a muted one.
But if you are a long-term investor, would you just dive into that part or again, staying away? Pashupati Advani: We have had three or four large IPOs apart from Swiggy, we have had Hyundai last week and that also takes money out of the market. And at the end of it all, we are a market that runs on supply and demand. I think what is happening is that because these large IPOs suck money out of retail as well as wholesale money, it is causing a bit of a damper.
Normally when you look at new issues and you look at them a year later, hardly three-four, maybe 15% are up and 85% are down. So, let us hope that Swiggy is one that is going to be down because long-term Swiggy is great. Stock Trading Macroeconomics Made Easy: Online Certification Course By - Anirudh Saraf, Founder- Saraf A & Associates, Chartered Accountant View Program Stock Trading Renko Chart Patterns Made Easy By - Kaushik Akiwatkar, Derivative Trader and Investor View Program Stock Trading Technical Analysis for Everyone - Technical Analysis Course By - Abhijit Paul, Technical Research Head, Fund Manager- ICICI Securities View Program Stock Trading Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading Heikin Ashi Trading Tactics: Master the Art of Trading By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading Complete Guide to Stock Market Trading: From Basics to Advanced By - Harneet Singh Kharbanda, Full Time Trader View Program Stock Trading Options Trading Course For Beginners By - Chetan Panchamia, Options Trader View Program Stock Trading Point & Figure Chart Mastery: A Comprehensive Trading Guide By - Mukta Dhamankar, Full Time Trader, 15 Years Experience, Instructor View Program Stock Trading Derivative Analytics Made Easy By - Vivek Bajaj, Co Founder- Stockedge and Elearnmarkets View Program Stock Trading Stock Valuation Made Easy By - Rounak Gouti, Investment commentary writer, Experience in equity research View Program Stock Trading Options Scalping Made Easy By - Sivakumar Jayachandran, Ace Scalper View Program Stock Trading Technical Analysis Made Easy: Online Certification Course By - Souradeep Dey, Equity and Commodity Trader, Trainer View Program Stock Trading ROC Made Easy: Master Course for ROC Stock Indicator By - Souradeep Dey, Equity and Commodity Trader, Trainer View Program Stock Trading A2Z of Stock Trading - Online Stock Trading Course By - elearnmarkets, Financial Education by StockEdge View Program Stock Trading Ichimoku Trading Unlocked: Expert Analysis and Strategy By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading Mastering Options Selling: Advanced Strategies for Success By - CA Manish Singh, Chartered Accountant, Professional Equity and Derivative Trader View Program Stock Trading Advanced Strategies in Stock Market Mastery By - CA Raj K Agrawal, Chartered Accountant View Program Stock Trading Futures Trading Made Easy: Future & Options Trading Course By - Anirudh Saraf, Founder- Saraf A & Associates, Chartered Accountant View Program What is the take on urban consumption? Paints, for instance, despite those pre-sales numbers and the real estate numbers picking up, clearly competition is impacting companies like Asian Paints.
Pashupati Advani: Asian Paints has been the market leader and there are now four or five strong players who have come into the space. So, obviously, it is going to create some turbulence. Some real deep pocketed players have decided to come in, like Mahindras, Jindals.
It is going to be an interesting time. I am looking forward to getting better quality paints to be able to paint my house. It is better for the customer and it is great for all of us.
Are you looking at ordering some better food from Jubilant as well because the Domino's business has managed to bounce back? Pashupati Advani: I read somewhere that Domino's delivers pizza in nine or ten minutes. I do not know how, but they do. I was also making the point that with the advent of businesses like Swiggy and Zomato going in for delivery business, it is becoming cut-throat.
The QSR business, which is the organised food delivery business, seems to be growing. There seems to be interest in investing in those kinds of companies with new brands, with existing investment with these brands. That is the next phase because it is becoming an official market from the unofficial market and we are getting cloud kitchens and food versus the old days where people would just make food and send it to you.
So a subtle transformation is happening and it comes with people being left with more in their pockets, so that is definitely...
, we are following the rest of the world in that. What to your mind will turn the things, turn the tide for the Indian markets, because it is towards the year end and FII flows and FII activities already ebbs because of the holidays, etc. Earnings we have seen, they have come and gone, election has come and gone, Fed decision has been done with, RBI largely we know the way forward.
What then will turn the tide perhaps? Pashupati Advani: Markets globally are going to settle at a slightly lower level. One of the things is that, I know the Fed cut rates by a quarter, but I actually see it very difficult for them to cut rates further, at least for the next three to four months. And I know because in any case, Donald Trump does not come into the White House until January.
So, for the next three to four months there is going to be no cuts, even when he gets into the White House it is going to be tough for him to cut rates. As long as rates are where they are, plus the Japan carry trade has gone, there is no real reason to stimulate the markets and of course, we are seeing selling from FIIs because the Japan carry trade is also vanishing and that is also people are having to unwind, get less leveraged and all these things are factors that are going to push nominal asset values down and that is what we are watching and it is happening slowly and it is happening painfully, but you say, okay, what should I sell? But everything is down 1%, 2%, maybe 3%. No, it will come back, so you hold on.
Basically, it is a time to lighten up because we are still headed downwards, that is my personal thought. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel ).
