10 hours Ago By Obi Jilani
It’s a mantra any seriously competitive parent will try to impose on their child: “There is no such thing as second place. Either you’re first or nothing.”Only these days most of the Tory party would bite someone’s hand off to be second.
Instead, they find themselves regularly languishing in third place – behind both Nigel Farage’s Reform and Keir Starmer’s Labour Party. This week a YouGov poll put Reform ahead on 27 points, Labour in second on 25 per cent and the Conservatives behind with 21 per cent. It’s part of a trend that is alarming aides in Conservative campaign headquarters.
“The situation is not sustainable,” says one put-out Tory MP.if(window.adverts) { window.
adverts.addToArray({"pos": "inread-hb-ros-inews"}); }It means Kemi Badenoch’s leadership is attracting increased scrutiny despite being her little more than 100 days in. Even as MPs take time out during the parliamentary recess, they are discussing what – or who – might turn their fortunes around.
The next election may be several years away but the Conservatives already worry that without action they’ll be left in the political wilderness.“There is a lot of frustration right now that things haven’t changed rapidly,” admits a member of the Shadow Cabinet. However, a Badenoch loyalist says that the new Tory leader is suffering from false expectations from colleagues: “It’s unrealistic to expect the situation to improve quickly.
We have no money. We have only a small number of MPs and Reform are buoyed by Trump’s populism.”The message of Badenoch’s supporters is to remain calm: “Cut her some slack and give her time,” says one MP.
Others are less patient. Tory MPs have been sharing round a segment in the Popbitch gossip email – claiming that “disgruntled” aides have been heard complaining in the watering holes of SW1 that she “really doesn’t like being asked to do much before lunch”. Her supporters dismiss this as fictional tittle tattle but it’s perhaps no coincidence that Badenoch’s internal critics have lately been talking about the “hard work” exhibited by other members of the Shadow Cabinet.
“Rob [Jenrick] is always out and about. His social media is active and he puts a lot of work in,” says one MP. “It is something to be admired.
”#color-context-related-article-3541701 {--inews-color-primary: #3759B7;--inews-color-secondary: #EFF2FA;--inews-color-tertiary: #3759B7;} Read Next square KATE MALTBY Oh, Kemi – it was all going so wellRead MoreThis month’s ConservativeHome Shadow Cabinet league table suggested that the grassroots think the same. The poll put Jenrick – who served as shadow justice secretary – on top with Mel Stride in second place. However, Badenoch – who had led every one of the polls since the election until last month is now in 14th place.
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addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l1"}); }“The ranking is basically proportionate to how hard everyone is working,” says one party figure.So, what can Badenoch do about it? While in Tory gossip circles everyone from Boris Johnson to James Cleverly to Jenrick has been whispered of lately as a potential successor, the mood in the Tory party is not regicidal. Instead, most MPs just want to see a bit more urgency from the top team: “We keep hearing that things will take time.
But there is an argument for being more proactive rather than letting Nigel [Farage] fill the airwaves.”Inside the Shadow Cabinet, there are plans to up the momentum. Badenoch – inspired by her Conservative contemporaries abroad such as Pierre Poilievre in Canada – has recently embarked on more long-form podcast interviews.
The view is a long discussion on beliefs plays to her strengths over the more “gotcha” style journalism of short interviews. However, this is not seen as a comms strategy on its own. “Kemi likes doing the podcast and she is good at them and they influence opinion pieces – but the real challenge is actually reaching out to your average voter,” says one shadow minister.
It’s why there are plans to get Badenoch out on the road more in the coming months across the UK. Next are the much talked about policy commissions. Each shadow cabinet member will lead one.
The hope is that they will be at launch phase by Easter – the most talked about is likely to be shadow Home Secretary’s Chris Philp. Pressure to leave the European Convention on Human Rights is growing in Tory ranks where it is seen as a way to counter Farage.But the rise of Reform means that more Tories are talking about a potential electoral pact.
While Farage has ruled the idea out, many think some kind of agreement could be possible – but don’t think Badenoch would ever consider a deal. It’s why Badenoch needs to show a path to the party rising in the polls and being able to take the fight to Labour on her own terms. If she doesn’t, her critics will say the only answer is a deal or merger – whether she likes it or not.
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addToArray({"pos": "mpu_tablet_l2"}); }Badenoch may take inspiration from Poilievre. But oddly enough her biggest reason for hope could come from a problem the Canadian Conservative leader now faces. Having held a big lead for a long time, as the election nears the polls have tightened – with Trudeau’s governing party closing in despite its recent problems.
It is being linked to a rally around the flag effect as Donald Trump has targeted Canada since returning. It shows that polling is very volatile – particularly over a long time. That’s a message Badenoch needs her party to hear – before they enter full panic mode.
Katy Balls is political editor at ‘The Spectator’.
