These 6 tech questions were settled in 2024

The Silicon Valley hype cycle follows a familiar pattern: an emerging technology or tech product or service is hinted at, rumored, leaked, reported on, announced, and then shipped. That’s the cycle for what actually happens. At any point during this cycle, the rumors or leaks might turn out to be wrong. Companies could change their minds, or internal trials might show that they shouldn’t pursue an actual direction.In other cases, specific ideas, products, or trends do arrive, but fail to capture the world and fizzle out. Products and ideas that everyone thought would become the Next Big Thing now populate the graveyard of failed tech. These include the Apple Newton, 3D television, the Segway, Theranos blood testing technology, Google Wave, WebTV, the Pebble smartwatch, Project Ara, and many more. In 2024, we gained clarity on several of these tech promises and assumptions.1. Apple won’t make a carRumors about Apple developing a car started circulating in 2015. It partnered with car companies, hired a large number of car specialists, patented car-related patents, and more. But in February 2024, we learned that Apple had dropped its so-called “Project Titan.”Apple began testing self-driving vehicles on public roads in California after getting a California Department of Motor Vehicles permit in 2017. The company used a fleet of modified Lexus SUVs equipped with sensors to test self-driving technologies. But in September 2024, Apple formally terminated its self-driving vehicle testing permit in California. The project’s 600 or so employees were reassigned internally or laid off.2. Glasses are The Next Big ThingWhile wearables have served as an interesting hobby and object of fascination for tech-obsessed or fitness-obsessed users for decades, it became clear in 2024 that face-top computers, also known as AR glasses, AI glasses, VR glasses, spatial computing glasses, and smart glasses will dominate the world of wearables in the near future, Beyond that they’re also likely to become the only user interface to replace smartphones as the main way people interact with computers and the cloud. The surprise hit of the year was Ray-Ban Meta glasses. At the beginning of the year, sales were very slow. But thanks to generally positive word-of-mouth recommendations, an estimated 2 million glasses have been sold. At Meta’s 2024 Connect event, CEO Mark Zuckerberg unveiled Meta Orion, an advanced AR glasses platform running Meta AI with a 70-degree field of view, Micro LED projectors, and waveguides in silicon carbide lenses — all weighing only 98 grams. XREAL impressed with its One Series, featuring the world’s first cinematic AR glasses with an independent spatial computing chip. Snap enhanced its Spectacles line with gesture control and integrated AI.Also this year, Google announced Project Astra, which aims to integrate AI assistants into camera-equipped glasses.Common sense favors glasses, as they enable screens directly in front of the eyes, speakers very close to the ears, cameras that look wherever the head turns, and microphones close to mouths. And glasses are a general form factor already accepted by more than 4 billion people worldwide who wear corrective lenses. 3. Drones are the future of warfareAt the beginning of the year, it appeared drones might actually have some military application, most likely for battlefield surveillance and other limited uses. Now that 2024 has come to an end, it’s clear that drones are by far the most important military platform since the tank. Speaking of tanks, Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO and the current owner of a secretive military drone company called Project Eagle (formerly White Stork), said, “A $5,000 drone can destroy a $5,000,000 tank,” calling tanks “largely useless now.” After Russia began jamming Ukrainian drone control and GPS signals, state-of-the-art drones chose their own targets and navigated using AI, making them autonomous killing machines.Drones have revolutionized modern warfare by providing cost-effective, precise, and versatile capabilities that significantly alter military strategies and operations. They enhance intelligence gathering and enable highly accurate strikes. Drones have democratized airpower, allowing smaller nations and non-state actors to challenge larger militaries. This has forced larger nation-states (including the United States, China, and Russia) to scramble to develop anti-drone solutions and drone innovations of their own. (China alone is reportedly working on roughly 50 different kinds of military drones.)Let’s be clear, though — war-like drones are not hovering routinely over New Jersey.4. AI is indispensable for cyber securityIn 2024, cyberattackers used AI to greatly increase the sophistication, scale, and speed of cyberattacks, making it clear that the best defense against AI-powered attacks is an AI-powered defense. AI-based attacks can adapt in real time, evade detection systems, and exploit vulnerabilities at an unprecedented scale. To counter these advanced threats, cybersecurity professionals must leverage AI-powered tools that can analyze vast amounts of data in real-time, detect anomalies, and respond to threats with greater speed and accuracy than is possible without AI tools. This is especially true because of the ongoing skills shortage in cybersecurity. 5. Self-driving cars workSelf-driving cars might not be reliable or safe enough anytime soon to operate on public roads. But developments in 2024 proved that self-driving cars are really happening, especially from Alphabet’s Waymo. That company unveiled the sixth generation of its Waymo Driver autonomous driving system this year and expanded services to the public in Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco. This year, we also learned that Waymo’s self-driving cars are far safer than human-driven vehicles. A 2024 study found an 88% reduction in property damage claims and a 92% reduction in bodily injury claims compared to human drivers.6. Generative AI will be our teachersMoral panic about AI chatbots and other tools “dumbing people down” is widespread. However, the public generally ignores the use of those same AI technologies to accelerate human learning.The best example of this capability is Google’s NotebookLM. While the company announced the service and ran a very limited beta program in 2023, it opened NotebookLM to US users a year ago and to the world in June 2024. Most importantly, Google added an “Audio Overviews” feature in September and made NotebookLM a real product called NotebookLM Plus for enterprises and paid subscribers. While NotebookLM is described as a smart note-taking tool, it really excels at consuming highly complex material — scientific papers, lectures, and whole books — and transforming it into explanations at any level. Rather than reading advanced material, it’s far faster and more engaging to let NotebookLM’s “Audio Overviews” feature create a life-like podcast for you to listen to. It will create a “study guide,” a FAQ, a “briefing guide,” and a timeline, enabling you to quickly look at dense content from multiple angles, perspectives, and levels. You can start by asking the chatbot to explain it to you like you’re a sixth-grader, then a high school senior, then an undergrad, and on up until you’ve mastered the material. LLM-based AI brings to education: Thanks to tools like NotebookLM, there’s literally no such thing as content too complicated or advanced to understand. We can now learn practically anything very quickly. The year 2024 was a groundbreaking year for technology, with many big tech questions finally answered once and for all.

Big uncertainties about the future of AI, drones, wearables, and cars were resolved this year. The Silicon Valley hype cycle follows a familiar pattern: an emerging technology or tech product or service is hinted at, rumored, leaked, reported on, announced, and then shipped. That’s the cycle for what actually happens.

At any point during this cycle, the rumors or leaks might turn out to be wrong. Companies could change their minds, or internal trials might show that they shouldn’t pursue an actual direction. In other cases, specific ideas, products, or trends do arrive, but fail to capture the world and fizzle out.

Products and ideas that everyone thought would become the Next Big Thing now populate the graveyard of failed tech. These include the Apple Newton, 3D television, the Segway, Theranos blood testing technology, Google Wave, WebTV, the Pebble smartwatch, Project Ara, and many more. In 2024, we gained clarity on several of these tech promises and assumptions.

1. Apple won’t make a car Rumors about Apple developing a car started circulating in 2015 . It partnered with car companies, hired a large number of car specialists, patented car-related patents, and more.

But in February 2024 , we learned that Apple had dropped its so-called “Project Titan.” Apple began testing self-driving vehicles on public roads in California after getting a California Department of Motor Vehicles permit in 2017. The company used a fleet of modified Lexus SUVs equipped with sensors to test self-driving technologies.

But in September 2024, Apple formally terminated its self-driving vehicle testing permit in California. The project’s 600 or so employees were reassigned internally or laid off. 2.

Glasses are The Next Big Thing While wearables have served as an interesting hobby and object of fascination for tech-obsessed or fitness-obsessed users for decades, it became clear in 2024 that face-top computers, also known as AR glasses, AI glasses, VR glasses, spatial computing glasses, and smart glasses will dominate the world of wearables in the near future, Beyond that they’re also likely to become the only user interface to replace smartphones as the main way people interact with computers and the cloud. The surprise hit of the year was Ray-Ban Meta glasses . At the beginning of the year, sales were very slow.

But thanks to generally positive word-of-mouth recommendations, an estimated 2 million glasses have been sold. At Meta’s 2024 Connect event, CEO Mark Zuckerberg unveiled Meta Orion , an advanced AR glasses platform running Meta AI with a 70-degree field of view, Micro LED projectors, and waveguides in silicon carbide lenses — all weighing only 98 grams. XREAL impressed with its One Series, featuring the world’s first cinematic AR glasses with an independent spatial computing chip.

Snap enhanced its Spectacles line with gesture control and integrated AI. Also this year, Google announced Project Astra, which aims to integrate AI assistants into camera-equipped glasses. Common sense favors glasses, as they enable screens directly in front of the eyes, speakers very close to the ears, cameras that look wherever the head turns, and microphones close to mouths.

And glasses are a general form factor already accepted by more than 4 billion people worldwide who wear corrective lenses. 3. Drones are the future of warfare At the beginning of the year, it appeared drones might actually have some military application, most likely for battlefield surveillance and other limited uses.

Now that 2024 has come to an end, it’s clear that drones are by far the most important military platform since the tank. Speaking of tanks, Eric Schmidt, former Google CEO and the current owner of a secretive military drone company called Project Eagle (formerly White Stork), said, “A $5,000 drone can destroy a $5,000,000 tank,” calling tanks “largely useless now.” After Russia began jamming Ukrainian drone control and GPS signals, state-of-the-art drones chose their own targets and navigated using AI, making them autonomous killing machines.

Drones have revolutionized modern warfare by providing cost-effective, precise, and versatile capabilities that significantly alter military strategies and operations. They enhance intelligence gathering and enable highly accurate strikes. Drones have democratized airpower, allowing smaller nations and non-state actors to challenge larger militaries.

This has forced larger nation-states (including the United States, China, and Russia) to scramble to develop anti-drone solutions and drone innovations of their own. (China alone is reportedly working on roughly 50 different kinds of military drones.) Let’s be clear, though — war-like drones are not hovering routinely over New Jersey .

4. AI is indispensable for cyber security In 2024, cyberattackers used AI to greatly increase the sophistication, scale, and speed of cyberattacks, making it clear that the best defense against AI-powered attacks is an AI-powered defense. AI-based attacks can adapt in real time, evade detection systems, and exploit vulnerabilities at an unprecedented scale.

To counter these advanced threats, cybersecurity professionals must leverage AI-powered tools that can analyze vast amounts of data in real-time, detect anomalies, and respond to threats with greater speed and accuracy than is possible without AI tools. This is especially true because of the ongoing skills shortage in cybersecurity . 5.

Self-driving cars work Self-driving cars might not be reliable or safe enough anytime soon to operate on public roads. But developments in 2024 proved that self-driving cars are really happening, especially from Alphabet’s Waymo. That company unveiled the sixth generation of its Waymo Driver autonomous driving system this year and expanded services to the public in Phoenix, Los Angeles, and San Francisco.

This year, we also learned that Waymo’s self-driving cars are far safer than human-driven vehicles. A 2024 study found an 88% reduction in property damage claims and a 92% reduction in bodily injury claims compared to human drivers. 6.

Generative AI will be our teachers Moral panic about AI chatbots and other tools “dumbing people down” is widespread. However, the public generally ignores the use of those same AI technologies to accelerate human learning. The best example of this capability is Google’s NotebookLM .

While the company announced the service and ran a very limited beta program in 2023, it opened NotebookLM to US users a year ago and to the world in June 2024. Most importantly, Google added an “Audio Overviews” feature in September and made NotebookLM a real product called NotebookLM Plus for enterprises and paid subscribers. While NotebookLM is described as a smart note-taking tool, it really excels at consuming highly complex material — scientific papers, lectures, and whole books — and transforming it into explanations at any level.

Rather than reading advanced material, it’s far faster and more engaging to let NotebookLM’s “Audio Overviews” feature create a life-like podcast for you to listen to. It will create a “study guide,” a FAQ, a “briefing guide,” and a timeline, enabling you to quickly look at dense content from multiple angles, perspectives, and levels. You can start by asking the chatbot to explain it to you like you’re a sixth-grader, then a high school senior, then an undergrad, and on up until you’ve mastered the material.

LLM-based AI brings to education: Thanks to tools like NotebookLM, there’s literally no such thing as content too complicated or advanced to understand. We can now learn practically anything very quickly. The year 2024 was a groundbreaking year for technology, with many big tech questions finally answered once and for all.

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