The Trump ripple effect

OFF THE BEATEN PATH Earlier this month, the US elections happened. Though it was an election where only Americans cast their vote, the shockwaves were felt all over the world. Leading up to the elections, a majority of the pollsters had predicted a tight race, with Republican Presidential candidate Donald Trump having a lead over Democratic Presidential candidate Kamala Harris in some surveys, while other polls had Harris leading Trump.

However, most leads were within the margin of error in the seven swing states, namely: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Michigan, North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona and Nevada. Many pundits had pointed to an underrepresentation in the polls of Trump supporters, while others had pointed to the 2018 and 2022 mid-term elections where the election results did not reflect the surveys. Because of this, many pollsters had taken the stance of being cautious in their releases.



Leading up to the elections, there seemed like a daily barrage of surveys being released that tended to overwhelm the public, with some polls coming out after the start of early voting. This election was crucial, because, as with previous presidential elections, many were worried that the popular vote would not necessarily result in the presidential candidate winning. This happened in several recent elections where the winner had secured the winning electoral college votes to sit as President, despite failing to secure the popular vote.

I was able to witness the elections in voting centers in Washington, DC and Maryland. I was together with the officials of the General Election Commission of Indonesia. The conduct of the elections in the sites we went to, was peaceful, and orderly.

In our visits, we had discussed with the local voting center officials, getting their views and sentiments on the conduct of this elections, as compared to previous presidential elections. One key takeaway, was that unlike previous elections where there would be long lines of people waiting to cast their vote, in this election, many had opted to vote early. Many had already voted thru mail-in voting or early voting.

There were also concerns that some supporters of former President Donald Trump would create problems if he would be unsuccessful in his bid. Many election officials in key areas had already taken extra measures to protect themselves. Fortunately, the threat of violence, did not happen, and the elections was generally peaceful.

The results though, should make some pollsters re-evaluate their methodologies. Because, despite the numerous polls showing an extremely close race, the end result, both in the popular votes and electoral college votes, showed a wide gap. This is the first presidential elections in several election cycles where the winning Republican presidential candidate won both the popular votes and the electoral college votes.

The results showed that Vice President Harris had garnered 73,764,979 votes, while former President Trump got 76,434,284 votes. During the 2016 US presidential elections, President Trump won the electoral college votes, but lost the popular vote. With regard the electoral college votes, the winner needing 270 votes to win, Trump secured 312 votes, as compared to the 226 electoral college votes by Harris.

In this election, Trump secured six more electoral votes as compared to the 2016 Presidential race. Despite this, the margin of winning is one of the narrowest winning margins in recent history. The democrats likewise won four senate seats in areas where President Trump won, something which did not happen in the 2016 and 2020 presidential elections.

There’ll be a lot of Monday morning quarterbacking, as what usually happens when the results are not what many had expected. With more than enough people claiming credit for the winning candidate/s, while on the other end, there’ll be a sufficient number of people who will point fingers at others who they think should take the blame. Both in messaging, strategy and ground game.

Both parties will soon start getting ready for the midterm elections in two years, and the next presidential elections in 2028, where the Republicans will have to find a new candidate for President, with President Trump already having reached his two-term limit. With analysts still debating and discussing the ramifications of the just-concluded elections, at the end of it all, the hope is that there would be a peaceful transfer of power to the new administration, which many know will happen. From the point of the Philippines, the wish is for the US and the Philippines to retain their relationship.

(Gregorio “Goyo” Larrazabal is a former Comelec commissioner. He is a pioneer of automated elections being a member of the Commission that successfully modernized Philippine elections in 2010. He remains involved in public service as an election lawyer.

Email: [email protected] ).