1 week Ago By Antoine Trépanier
Article content QUEBEC CITY – As the Liberals widen their gap in Quebec, eyes are focused on the “Old Capital,” a longtime, mysterious Conservative stronghold. But the ground may be shifting, and one political icon is now hinting that a red wave could sweep over the city. That’s former mayor Régis Labeaume, who served from 2007 to 2022 and left office with a 78 per cent approval rating.
Labeaume is still a local star. He knows the people and what they’re going through. In the four municipal elections he won, his worst result was 55 per cent of the vote.
When he was mayor of the province’s second-largest city, all political leaders wanted a piece of him. Including then-prime minister Stephen Harper. “Things went very well with Mr.
Harper,” he said over brunch in one of his go-to restaurants for the past four decades. Labeaume was not always easy to get along with. He’s a strange breed, a bulldozer who loved to fight with his opponents and journalists.
He shone in the spotlight and never hesitated to speak out against anyone who said “no” to him and to his city. The National Post met with Labeaume to decode the “Quebec City mystery” on a Saturday morning, after week one of this campaign. It’s a mystery because the Conservative party, not known for its strength in Quebec, holds three seats, ahead of the Liberals and the Bloc Québécois with two each, in a province where they won only 10 in the last election.
If you include the greater Quebec City area, the Tories held six out of ten going into the current campaign. It’s historic, he said. In the first major French-speaking city in North America, language is paramount.
Quebec City is “a village,” says Labeaume, and the residents are proud of it. “The Conservative vote (here) is a protest vote..
. People are voting against the establishment,” he said. Quebec City is historically no fan of the Liberals.
The Grits’ two MPs in the area, Jean-Yves Duclos (Québec-Centre) and Joël Lightbound (Louis-Hébert), have won their seats by no more than a couple of thousands of votes in every election since 2015. They have never managed to add a third representative to the city. People seem to enjoy having the opposition to represent them.
In 2011, every seat was won by the NDP during Jack Layton’s orange wave. Even though the Liberals are leading the province, according to the most recent National Post-Léger poll , the Conservatives still appear to be dominating the capital. Polling aggregator 338Canada is projecting five ridings for the Conservatives, while the Liberals would retain their two seats, and none for the Bloc.
“Everyone calls it the Quebec Mystery, but I have suggested that it’s more the Montreal Mystery,” said the Conservative candidate in Charlesbourg-Côte-Saint-Charles, Pierre Paul-Hus, with a laugh. “If you go back 30, 40, or 50 years, people’s mentality has always been, ‘We work hard, we take care of our money, we have family values.’ Well, all of that is a fundamental fact that still exists.
Quebecers are more conservative than we might think,” said Paul-Hus, who is Pierre Poilievre’s Quebec lieutenant. Paul-Hus hopes his party will make gains, just like the Bloc Québécois. Leader Yves-François Blanchet launched his campaign in the city.
In downtown Quebec City, Simon Bérubé’s campaign headquarters had nearly a dozen volunteers working frantically. Bérubé, the Bloc candidate in Québec-Centre facing former liberal minister Jean-Yves Duclos, has been canvassing door-to-door for nearly a year. He talks about public transit and the protection of the French language.
He hopes that Quebecers, who are passionate about debate and extremely politically informed, will see the value in having a strong Bloc MP who is also an expert on American politics. He points out that Duclos was “dumped, abandoned by his Prime Minister just before the election” when Carney formed his first cabinet. Carney did not appoint any ministers east of Shawinigan, which is seen by many people we spoke to as a “slap in the face.
” “So, for all of eastern Quebec, there is no longer a minister, and it is a decision that Mr. Carney had to make consciously because he does not know Quebec, he does not know the importance of Quebec City and of the national capital of Quebec,” he said. But people are afraid, said Labeaume.
U.S. President Donald Trump’s repeated threats against Canada are terrifying.
“Psychosis exists here. People only talk about Trump..
. We are incapable, until further notice, of putting a little rationality into our thoughts. I have rarely seen that,” he said.
At Halles Sainte-Foy, people from all over the city go to shop, have lunch or drink coffee. Joël Lightbound, the tall, calm, and soft-spoken Liberal candidate for Louis-Hébert, takes a deep breath before interrupting customers mid-conversation. “I’m your MP and Liberal candidate here,” he says.
They know him, and they rush to take his picture. “I think there is definitely something going on in the population and there are ridings that I didn’t think were winnable a few months ago that now seem entirely within the realm of possibility,” he said in an interview. Then, a couple of other customers stopped what they were doing.
Their eyes almost popped out. “It’s Mélanie Joly,” whispered an older lady at a coffee shop. The Minister of Foreign Affairs emerged and started to work the crowd.
“Can we count on your vote?” she asked with a smile. “Maybe, I don’t know yet,” replied a woman. She was undecided, but she was leaning toward a federalist party.
She wouldn’t say which one, but her smile said it all when she talked about her encounter with the minister. “Flipping undecided voters is the politician’s job in a campaign,” Joly said. She shook another hand, took another picture.
Liberals are feeling something in Quebec City but also everywhere in the province. Something like a wave in their favor. Joly feels the Liberals now enjoy greater support in the province than in 2015, when Justin Trudeau’s party won a majority in the province with 40 seats.
Liberal sources privately said that winning 43 seats in the province would be a resounding success this time around. As of Monday, 338Canada predicted 49 seats for the Liberals in the province. A few months ago, Joly wasn’t as popular, and smiles were rarer.
The Liberals had hit rock bottom across the country, including in Montreal, their last stronghold. “It’s night and day,” she told the National Post. “There was anger among the population.
.. We weren’t popular because people wanted change,” she added.
Justin Trudeau’s resignation, Donald Trump’s threats against Canada, and the arrival of Mark Carney have changed everything for the grits in this province. Perhaps even in the capital. “Adding two seats in Quebec City would be amazing,” said Lightbound.
Régis Labeaume does not support anyone in this election. He’s a separatist who voted “yes” in two referenda; a social democrat who ran a mining company and became a millionaire before entering politics. He wouldn’t say who he’ll vote for.
But he told us very clearly that he appreciates the style of Liberal leader Mark Carney, a “neophyte” who is making “bold” decisions and has a “son of a b*tch” instinct. People are more afraid than ever, he said. Even more so than during the referenda on Quebec independence.
Quebecers, he added, want someone in charge, someone “solid,” someone with “major league experience.” “Carney is up there. It’s pretty clear,” he said.
He doesn’t think Pierre Poilievre is up for the task and says the Bloc is inevitably in a tough spot. He feels a wave. A red wave in Quebec City.
“There are Conservative ridings that will flip to the Liberals,” he predicted. He finished his coffee, stood up, and headed for the exit. Half a dozen people stopped him.
“We need you,” said a man. “We miss you terribly, Mr. Labeaume,” said a woman nearby.
“You’re my political hero,” added another. He shook their hands with a smile. “See, I told you.
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