The MSM Is Unprepared For What's Coming

I have said it many times, and will say it many more, polling science is BAD science. I am often asked by those in my orbit about the latest polls, and I remind them of two things: 1) All polls prior to Labor Day of an election year are for entertainment purposes only; and 2) Ignore the numbers, they are essentially worthless. The problem with the vast majority of MSM, is they rely upon these fantasy politics numbers to generate their story ideas, and depending on who is signing their paychecks, those ideas are framed the way they choose to frame them, regardless of facts. Thus, we get the current New York Times, WSJ, WaPo, Corporate-owned cable “news,” etc., and those organizations are completely unprepared for what is going to happen eight weeks from Tuesday. Now that we are post Labor Day, and the majority of Americans who pay little or no attention to politics start tuning in, polls begin to have a little more meaning, but only as an indicator of trends. As we can see in current polling, those trends are moving consistently toward Kamala Harris. That’s a good thing, IMO. Polls do not, however, provide an accurate reflection of reality when it comes to predicting the final outcomes of an election (see virtually every election for the past three decades as examples). Seriously, how many times does a process have to be demonstrated as seriously flawed before people stop taking it seriously? Modern polling is just an excuse to justify confirmation biased stories. Nothing more. Maybe a better way to explain it is with an analogy. Imagine trying to view a large mural that takes 150 million drops of paint, but you’re only going to look at a few hundred drops, make a lot of assumptions about how those drops represent the larger picture based on previous observations of other murals, apply an algorithm that “weights” those drops based on their color, location, etc., turn the whole thing on its edge, squint just right and claim to know what the picture will look like, within 4% to 6% accuracy. It’s absurd. Maybe over time, as different groups of small drops are included, you begin to get a clearer picture (this is why trends are relevant), but no poll can accomplish what it claims to accomplish. That’s not to say that I think pollsters are purposefully misleading their audiences. I think most of them (with obvious exceptions) are really trying to understand what is happening. The problem is, they’re using bad science. In fact, I would argue that what they are doing is not “science” at all, since science requires things like representative samples, observation, repeatability, avoiding assumptions, and non-interference in the experiment to affect its outcome. Pollsters accomplish none of these things.This is all to say that I think the current polls, and by extension the MSM, are completely missing one of the biggest political reformations in our nation’s history, and this reformation is just beginning with this coming election. Over the next six years (three election cycles), the makeup of the electorate and the shift in the Overton Window will completely alter the political landscape of this nation into a mural no one has ever seen before, and things are not looking good for the Republican Party.I’ve written similar prognostications about past elections based my observations of what is actually happening across the country and, more often than not, have proven accurate. You can see an example here. It’s a bit early for this diary, as I usually wait to see early turn-out numbers to support my predictions, but the trends seem so obvious to me at this point that there is no reason to wait. So, here are six predictions for this coming election based on key facts and what I’m observing.1) Kamala Harris will be the first woman president of the United States. There are still a few hurdles to overcome, like the debate on Tuesday and voter suppression tactics in key swing states that could change the outcome, but all indications are that Harris will win over 300 electoral votes, if we can get people to vote. If 60% of the electorate turns out, Harris wins. If 65% of the electorate turns out, Dems take control of Congress for a generation. If 70% of the electorate turns out, the national Republican party effectively ceases to exist, and it will be relegated to a minor party controlling a handful of deep south and far north states.2) The election will be a landslide for the Dems up and down the ballot. This is where the polls get the most things wrong, since they are weighted to reflect previous election demographics, but that’s not reflective of the voters this cycle. New registrations among young voters, black voters (especially women), Latina/o voters, and first time voters are setting records. This a huge factor in swing states especially, where a few thousand votes can make a difference. Reproductive freedom is on the ballot for the first time in a presidential election cycle and in many swing states plus Florida. This will drive massive turnout in female voters (and voters overall) who are passionate about this issue. New evidence of Trump’s crimes will also come to light. That’s all good news for Dems. In addition, between the pandemic and general aging/demographic changes, the Republican Party has lost around 2.5 million voters since 2020, and that’s not even counting the number of moderate Republicans switching allegiances this cycle in protest of Trump. It all adds up to a Blue Tsunami IF we get voters to show up. Signs are good.3) The MSM will feign total shock at the outcome, and use their willful ignorance of what is happening today to justify questioning the validity of the election. In other words, “since we didn’t see it coming, it can’t be real.” It will keep clicks coming and eyes on the TV as the corporate and billionaire class use their propaganda outlets to try and smear the Harris/Walz administration. Americans will mostly tune it out. The political trauma exhaustion is real, and the vast majority of us will want to focus on actual issues like climate change, corporate price gouging, and our 3rd-world healthcare system. 4) Within a month after the election, Trump’s lawyers will begin filing motions of dismissal based on mental incompetence. They will immediately begin arguing that Trump no longer has the mental capacity to stand trial and his failing health should keep him out of jail. It’s all true now, but without the MSM propping him up like the Weekend at Bernie’s candidate he is, the ruse will be up.5) There will be violence. Cognitive dissonance is such a powerful and overwhelming mental issue that the MAGA cultists can never accept the wrongfulness of their beliefs and positions. The vast majority of them will turn away from politics completely and sulk in their wretchedness, which is the best possible outcome. But some cannot, and will not, accept the new reality, and they have guns. Lots and lots of guns. Sadly, this will not be a bloodless outcome. The best we can do is watch out for our fellow neighbors and protect our loved ones however we can. American terrorism will be a thing for a few years. It’s unfortunately predictable. 6) Trump will never spend a day in jail. I would LOVE to be wrong about this, but the billionaire class will never allow it, because if we can lock away one of them, then they are all at risk. They have to maintain the illusion of their immunity to the law. And this is not to mention the extreme corruption that is our current SCOTUS. His lawyers will continue to file appeal after appeal until the day he dies. But, at least he will finally, and forever, be rejected from the national political stage. And good riddance to him. As the election draws nearer, I’ll keep an eye on some of the key indicators on the ground and update as necessary. Until then, keep making calls. Volunteer and donate to local, state, and national Democratic candidates. Make sure your registration is current (lots of voter roll dumps happening in red states), and make plans with a friend or family member to drive to the polls together. Make a day of it, have lunch together after, and toast to your efforts to protect American democracy and the right to vote for the candidate of your choice.

I have said it many times, and will say it many more, polling science is BAD science. I am often asked by those in my orbit about the latest polls, and I remind them of two things: 1) All polls prior to Labor Day of an election year are for entertainment purposes only; and 2) Ignore the numbers, they are essentially worthless. The problem with the vast majority of MSM, is they rely upon these fantasy politics numbers to generate their story ideas, and depending on who is signing their paychecks, those ideas are framed the way they choose to frame them, regardless of facts.

Thus, we get the current New York Times, WSJ, WaPo, Corporate-owned cable “news,” etc., and those organizations are completely unprepared for what is going to happen eight weeks from Tuesday. Now that we are post Labor Day, and the majority of Americans who pay little or no attention to politics start tuning in, polls begin to have a little more meaning, but only as an indicator of trends.

As we can see in current polling, those trends are moving consistently toward Kamala Harris. That’s a good thing, IMO. Polls do not, however, provide an accurate reflection of reality when it comes to predicting the final outcomes of an election (see virtually every election for the past three decades as examples).

Seriously, how many times does a process have to be demonstrated as seriously flawed before people stop taking it seriously? Modern polling is just an excuse to justify confirmation biased stories. Nothing more. Maybe a better way to explain it is with an analogy.

Imagine trying to view a large mural that takes 150 million drops of paint, but you’re only going to look at a few hundred drops, make a lot of assumptions about how those drops represent the larger picture based on previous observations of other murals, apply an algorithm that “weights” those drops based on their color, location, etc., turn the whole thing on its edge, squint just right and claim to know what the picture will look like, within 4% to 6% accuracy. It’s absurd.

Maybe over time, as different groups of small drops are included, you begin to get a clearer picture (this is why trends are relevant), but no poll can accomplish what it claims to accomplish. That’s not to say that I think pollsters are purposefully misleading their audiences. I think most of them (with obvious exceptions) are really trying to understand what is happening.

The problem is, they’re using bad science. In fact, I would argue that what they are doing is not “science” at all, since science requires things like representative samples, observation, repeatability, avoiding assumptions, and non-interference in the experiment to affect its outcome. Pollsters accomplish none of these things.

This is all to say that I think the current polls, and by extension the MSM, are completely missing one of the biggest political reformations in our nation’s history, and this reformation is just beginning with this coming election. Over the next six years (three election cycles), the makeup of the electorate and the shift in the Overton Window will completely alter the political landscape of this nation into a mural no one has ever seen before, and things are not looking good for the Republican Party. I’ve written similar prognostications about past elections based my observations of what is actually happening across the country and, more often than not, have proven accurate.

You can see an example here . It’s a bit early for this diary, as I usually wait to see early turn-out numbers to support my predictions, but the trends seem so obvious to me at this point that there is no reason to wait. So, here are six predictions for this coming election based on key facts and what I’m observing.

1) Kamala Harris will be the first woman president of the United States. There are still a few hurdles to overcome, like the debate on Tuesday and voter suppression tactics in key swing states that could change the outcome, but all indications are that Harris will win over 300 electoral votes, if we can get people to vote. If 60% of the electorate turns out, Harris wins.

If 65% of the electorate turns out, Dems take control of Congress for a generation. If 70% of the electorate turns out, the national Republican party effectively ceases to exist, and it will be relegated to a minor party controlling a handful of deep south and far north states. 2) The election will be a landslide for the Dems up and down the ballot.

This is where the polls get the most things wrong, since they are weighted to reflect previous election demographics, but that’s not reflective of the voters this cycle. New registrations among young voters, black voters (especially women), Latina/o voters, and first time voters are setting records. This a huge factor in swing states especially, where a few thousand votes can make a difference.

Reproductive freedom is on the ballot for the first time in a presidential election cycle and in many swing states plus Florida. This will drive massive turnout in female voters (and voters overall) who are passionate about this issue. New evidence of Trump’s crimes will also come to light.

That’s all good news for Dems. In addition, between the pandemic and general aging/demographic changes, the Republican Party has lost around 2.5 million voters since 2020, and that’s not even counting the number of moderate Republicans switching allegiances this cycle in protest of Trump.

It all adds up to a Blue Tsunami IF we get voters to show up. Signs are good. 3) The MSM will feign total shock at the outcome, and use their willful ignorance of what is happening today to justify questioning the validity of the election.

In other words, “since we didn’t see it coming, it can’t be real.” It will keep clicks coming and eyes on the TV as the corporate and billionaire class use their propaganda outlets to try and smear the Harris/Walz administration. Americans will mostly tune it out.

The political trauma exhaustion is real, and the vast majority of us will want to focus on actual issues like climate change, corporate price gouging, and our 3rd-world healthcare system. 4) Within a month after the election, Trump’s lawyers will begin filing motions of dismissal based on mental incompetence. They will immediately begin arguing that Trump no longer has the mental capacity to stand trial and his failing health should keep him out of jail.

It’s all true now, but without the MSM propping him up like the Weekend at Bernie’s candidate he is, the ruse will be up. 5) There will be violence. Cognitive dissonance is such a powerful and overwhelming mental issue that the MAGA cultists can never accept the wrongfulness of their beliefs and positions.

The vast majority of them will turn away from politics completely and sulk in their wretchedness, which is the best possible outcome. But some cannot, and will not, accept the new reality, and they have guns. Lots and lots of guns.

Sadly, this will not be a bloodless outcome. The best we can do is watch out for our fellow neighbors and protect our loved ones however we can. American terrorism will be a thing for a few years.

It’s unfortunately predictable. 6) Trump will never spend a day in jail. I would LOVE to be wrong about this, but the billionaire class will never allow it, because if we can lock away one of them, then they are all at risk.

They have to maintain the illusion of their immunity to the law. And this is not to mention the extreme corruption that is our current SCOTUS. His lawyers will continue to file appeal after appeal until the day he dies.

But, at least he will finally, and forever, be rejected from the national political stage. And good riddance to him. As the election draws nearer, I’ll keep an eye on some of the key indicators on the ground and update as necessary.

Until then, keep making calls. Volunteer and donate to local, state, and national Democratic candidates. Make sure your registration is current (lots of voter roll dumps happening in red states), and make plans with a friend or family member to drive to the polls together.

Make a day of it, have lunch together after, and toast to your efforts to protect American democracy and the right to vote for the candidate of your choice..