3 days Ago By Kerry Miller
Major League Baseball's 2024 postseason is just around the corner, with every relevant team either 12 or 13 games away from what will be their final record. Incredibly, though, not a single team has clinched a playoff spot yet. Atlanta clinched in Game 142 last year.
The Dodgers did so in Game 140 in 2022. The year before that, the Giants sealed the deal a little later in Game 144. But in a testament to the lack of any sort of dominant team this season, here we are at Game 150 with no one quite assured of a bid yet.
For the most part, though, the postseason picture hasn't really changed in the past month, and it feels like it won't change much down the stretch. The AL East race is a good one, and the NL wild card picture should be a photo finish. But let's go division by division and tell you who will ultimately be partaking in this year's 12-team field.
With just two weeks remaining, the projected postseason matchups are finally starting to feel real. As such, we're going to dive a little deeper into each of those October predictions than we have in previous installments of this exercise. Spoiler alert, though: If you like small-market teams, you're not going to be happy with the World Series projection.
It could be incredible if the matchup comes together, though. Current Standings: NYY 87-63, BAL 84-66 (3 GB), BOS 75-75 (12 GB), TBR 73-77 (14 GB), TOR 72-78 (15 GB) Projected Winner : New York Yankees Projected Wild Card Teams : Baltimore Orioles If you feel like this race never changes no matter how many times you look at it, you're not really wrong. The last time either Baltimore or New York led by more than three games was in early June.
But between the current standings and the respective remaining schedules, it's looking pretty unlikely that Baltimore will be able to pull this off. They do still have a head-to-head series from Sept. 24-26.
If the O's can sweep that three-game set in The Bronx, that changes everything. Aside from that, though, New York's remaining games are against Seattle, Oakland and Pittsburgh while Baltimore gets San Francisco, Detroit and Minnesota. That's a sizable advantage for the Yankees, giving them the inside track to a first-round bye.
The O's are very comfortably in wild-card position, though. They would just about need to lose out to fall behind any of Boston, Detroit or Seattle. Speaking of Boston, though, could it mess around and still steal a wild card spot? Getting swept by the Mets and then failing to sweep the White Sox earlier this month sure felt like the final nail in the Red Sox's coffin.
However, Minnesota has been limping to the finish line, too, and the Red Sox have three games against them in Boston this coming weekend. Moreover, while Minnesota still has a four-game set in Cleveland and a three-game series against Baltimore on its plate, the rest of Boston's schedule is just six games against dead Tampa Bay and three games against deader Toronto. Erasing a 4.
5-game deficit in two weeks' time isn't easy, but the stage is set for it to potentially happen. Current Standings: CLE 86-64, KCR 82-68 (4 GB), MIN 79-70 (6.5 GB), DET 77-73 (9 GB), CHW 35-115 (51 GB) Projected Winner : Cleveland Guardians Projected Wild Card Teams : Kansas City Royals, Minnesota Twins Things got dicey for a hot minute there in late August when Kansas City turned a three-game deficit into a tie atop the AL Central in the span of about 33 hours.
However, Cleveland quickly surged back ahead and has not actually trailed at any point since April 13. Barring a collapse, it's going to win this division for the fifth time in nine years. And at long last, Kansas City's gauntlet is over.
Playing 20 games in 20 days against the Phillies, Guardians, Astros, Twins and Yankees could have been a total disaster. The Royals did lose seven straight in the middle of that run. But they went 9-11 and actually pushed a game and a half further ahead of both Boston and Minnesota.
The Royals do still end the season with a three-game series against an Atlanta team that might still be desperately trying to play its way into the mix. Kansas City should be able to do enough before then against Detroit, San Francisco and Washington to secure a wild-card spot, though. No need to rehash the Boston/Minnesota discussion from the AL East section, but it does bear repeating that the Twins have their work cut out for them.
They got Byron Buxton back on Friday and Carlos Correa returned on Saturday, but it wasn't the immediate jolt they were hoping for. This offense has been stuck in neutral over the past month, and we'll see if they can kick it back into gear before it's too late. As far as Detroit goes, it was a spirited month-long run, going 20-8 from August 11 through September 11.
But the Tigers didn't sweep Oakland last weekend and didn't sweep Colorado this past week. Huge missed opportunities, and they're likely going to fade out of the conversation this week during their six straight road games against the Royals and Orioles. If they still have a pulse with one week to go, though, buddy, closing the season at home against the Rays and White Sox is just about as favorable as it gets.
Maybe they can pull off a miraculous comeback while handing Chicago its final three historic losses. Current Standings: HOU 81-68, SEA 77-73 (4.5 GB), TEX 71-79 (10.
5 GB), OAK 65-85 (16.5 GB), LAA 60-89 (21 GB) Projected Winner : Houston Astros Projected Wild Card Teams : N/A Houston should have locked this up a while ago, specifically when the Mariners lost four in a row against the Angels and A's as August spilled over into September. Instead, the Astros got swept in Cincinnati around the same time, and then lost a pair of home games against Oakland this past week, keeping the door ajar to the possibility of a wild finish.
In the next seven days, Seattle has to play three against the Yankees and three on the road against the Rangers. Meanwhile, Houston has three in San Diego and four at home against the Angels. If the Astros haven't clinched the division by then, though, buckle up.
The M's travel to Houston for a three-game set from Sept. 23-25 and then finish the season at home against Oakland while Houston has to play three games in Cleveland against a Guardians team that might be trying to lock up home-field advantage for the ALCS. Losing two out of three at home against the Astros in the final week of last season was a big factor in Seattle falling just shy of reaching the postseason.
Maybe the Mariners can flip the script and pull off a sweep in Houston en route to an epic comeback. The odds are stacked against them, though. Current Standings: PHI 90-59, NYM 81-68 (9 GB), ATL 81-68 (9 GB), WAS 68-81 (22 GB), MIA 55-95 (35.
5 GB) Projected Winner : Philadelphia Phillies Projected Wild Card Teams : New York Mets The Phillies have led this division by a 5-10 game margin for nearly four months at this point, and it's a foregone conclusion they'll get it done and get a first-round bye. Might be the No. 1 seed.
Might be the No. 2 seed. But there's no real drama there.
The race for first runner-up in this division, though, might soon be the only race left that actually matters. At the All-Star Break, Atlanta was comfortably in the projected postseason field. The Phillies were up 8.
5 games in the division, but Atlanta was two games behind the No. 2 seed Dodgers and five games clear of the first team on the wrong side of the cutline for the No. 6 seed.
Since then, they haven't even played poorly, posting a winning record at 28-26. That's better than what Philadelphia, Baltimore, Cleveland and Minnesota have accomplished over the past two months. Unfortunately, San Diego has gone 35-16, Arizona 34-18, and New York 32-22 in collectively knocking the Braves to the brink of missing the cut.
And with Reynaldo López landing back on the IL (shoulder) after an early exit from Tuesday's start against Washington, battling back to reclaim what once was seemingly guaranteed to be theirs is feeling less likely by the day. Could the schedule save Atlanta, though? Not only do they have a ginormous opportunity at home against the Mets (Sept. 24-26), but they'll get back-to-back series against Cincinnati and Miami heading into that showdown, while New York has to bookend that series in Atlanta with four games against Philadelphia and three in Milwaukee.
What's wildly intriguing about that final weekend is that the Brewers may well be locked into the No. 3 seed, but also in a position to control who they'll draw in that wild-card series. Meanwhile, Atlanta will be hosting Kansas City, who plausibly could be locked in as the AL's No.
5 seed at that point. If that's the case, they might be saving Seth Lugo, Cole Ragans and Michael Wacha for their 4/5 matchup, which just might be the ticket to getting the Braves across the finish line. For now, we're projecting the Mets, but this could come right down to the wire.
(Not for nothing, the season series between Atlanta and New York is currently tied at 5-5, meaning the winner of that remaining three-game set would hold the edge in a possible tiebreaker. Getting swept in Atlanta at the exact same juncture in the schedule in 2022 is why the Mets lost the NL East tiebreaker two years ago.) Current Standings: MIL 86-63, CHC 76-73 (10 GB), STL 74-75 (12 GB), CIN 73-78 (14 GB), PIT 71-78 (15 GB) Projected Winner : Milwaukee Brewers Projected Wild Card Teams : N/A Nothing much to see here, other than a note that the Cubs are probably toast after losing this weekend's series in Colorado.
There was already no chance they'd catch the Brewers to win the division, but they entered that series four games behind Atlanta and five games behind New York for the final wild card spot. Closing that big of a gap on two teams in the span of 2.5 weeks was a tough, near-impossible ask.
Didn't help matters that at 2-4 vs. ATL and 3-4 vs. NYM, they would lose the tiebreaker against either one.
But with 13 of their final 16 games coming against Colorado, Oakland, Washington and Cincinnati, it was possible they could go 12-4 down the stretch to storm into the playoff picture. Thanks to those losses in Colorado, though, that dream is all but dead and Milwaukee has basically clinched this division. Current Standings: LAD 88-61, SDP 85-65 (3.
5 GB), ARI 83-66 (5 GB), SFG 72-78 (16.5 GB), COL 57-93 (31.5 GB) Projected Winner : Los Angeles Dodgers Projected Wild Card Teams : Arizona Diamondbacks, San Diego Padres For a little while there, Arizona and San Diego getting into the playoffs felt like a given, and it was just a question of whether either one could overtake Los Angeles to win the NL West.
At the end of play on August 27, they were tied, three games behind the Dodgers, three games clear of Atlanta as the No. 6 seed and six games ahead of New York as the first team out. However, after a few weeks of both playing .
500-ish baseball, they've lost ground in the NL West race and that cushion in the wild-card picture is completely gone. San Diego could be one bad series away from dropping from the No. 4 seed to missing the cut, and Arizona is even closer to that peril, just two games ahead of New York and Atlanta.
The Diamondbacks are about to begin a three-game set in Colorado. Once that ends, the Padres will have three games at home against the White Sox. Should they both take care of business by sweeping those disastrous teams, the crisis may be mutually averted.
Should it come down to the finish line, though, the Snakes and the Dads are squaring off in Arizona over the final weekend of the regular season. It might just be a battle to determine who gets home-field advantage in the 4/5 series, or the stakes could be much higher than that. AL No.
3 Houston Astros vs. AL No. 6 Minnesota Twins Minnesota's offense has been in shambles for some time now.
Meanwhile, Houston finally has Kyle Tucker back alongside Yordan Alvarez, who has been scorching hot with four multi-homer games in his last 30 contests. (They both homered in Saturday's win over the Angels.) This may well be a repeat of last October, when Alvarez went 7-for-16 with four bombs in the ALDS victory over Minnesota.
Prediction : Houston 2-0 AL No. 4 Baltimore Orioles vs. AL No.
5 Kansas City Royals Few postseason-bound teams are limping to the finish line quite like the Orioles. Once neck-and-neck with Bobby Witt Jr. for the title of most valuable shortstop in baseball, Gunnar Henderson has cooled off considerably.
Adley Rutschman has been even colder, batting below .200 since late June. Corbin Burnes hasn't been anywhere near his usual dominant self over the past six weeks and Grayson Rodriguez hasn't pitched since July, turning an already mediocre starting rotation into a complete mess.
Add it all up and Baltimore has not won a series against a team with a legitimate postseason pulse since taking two of three from the Yankees in mid-June. Prediction : Kansas City 2-1 NL No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers vs.
NL No. 6 New York Mets Surely it has happened before, but it's kind of funny that after ending the regular season with three games in Milwaukee, the Mets—should they make the playoffs at all—might be staying there for the wild card round. There's a good chance that series will make us change how we feel about this projected series, but give us the Brewers for now.
It's not a World Series-caliber starting rotation, but it could be enough to eke past the Mets. Prediction : Milwaukee 2-1 NL No. 4 San Diego Padres vs.
NL No. 5 Arizona Diamondbacks All of the wild card series should be good, but this is the big one. (And, again, one which would be an immediate rematch, as San Diego ends the regular season at Arizona.
) The Diamondbacks' insatiable offense against a damn good Padres pitching staff is the main draw, but it might be the Padres hitters against a mediocre Diamondbacks rotation that win the day. Merrill Kelly, Eduardo Rodríguez and Brandon Pfaadt have all been struggling mightily as of late, so we'll see how the Snakes line things up beyond (presumably) Zac Gallen in Game 1. Prediction : San Diego 2-1 AL No.
1 New York Yankees vs. AL No. 5 Kansas City Royals It's not a matchup anyone could have predicted before the season began, but it's one we desperately want to see: The Fightin' Aaron Judges against the Spunky Bobby Witt Juniors.
New York won both of the regular-season series, though, and the pitching staff has really turned a corner again with both Luis Gil and Clarke Schmidt back in the mix while Gerrit Cole has resurfaced as a dominant force since the beginning of August. (Though, he did get roughed up by the Red Sox on Saturday.) Throw in Gleyber Torres finally heating up, Austin Wells pushing for AL ROY and Jazz Chisholm Jr.
continuing to hit well and it's hard to see David toppling Goliath here. Prediction : New York 3-0 AL No. 2 Cleveland Guardians vs.
AL No. 3 Houston Astros Time to find out if Justin Verlander has any more tricks left up his 41-year-old sleeve. He has struggled since returning from the IL in late August, but he may well be lined up for Games 1 and 5 of this series.
If anything close to vintage Verlander shows up, Houston should prevail against a Guardians team that has been leaking oil since early August, struggling to score while trying to overcome a starting rotation where Matthew Boyd—who entered 2024 with a 4.94 career ERA—is suddenly their best option. Prediction : Houston 3-1 NL No.
1 Philadelphia Phillies vs. NL No. 4 San Diego Padres It's a rematch of the 2022 NLCS, but San Diego looks quite different.
Instead of Trent Grisham going 0-for-19 as the Padres starting center fielder, NL ROY favorite Jackson Merrill plausibly could spearhead an upset bid. Having Fernando Tatis Jr. available and Xander Bogaerts on the roster this time around could also be a game-changer.
But the Phillies are better, too, with Trea Turner instead of Jean Segura, Cristopher Sánchez instead of Bailey Falter and a quartet of reliable relievers. The series might go the distance, but the Phillies get it done. Prediction : Philadelphia 3-2 NL No.
2 Los Angeles Dodgers vs. NL No. 3 Milwaukee Brewers The great big unknown here is which Dodgers starting pitchers will even be available for the postseason.
Tyler Glasnow is out . There's been no news on Gavin Stone's status in the 10 days since he landed on the IL. Clayton Kershaw is rehabbing, but who knows there? Getting Yoshinobu Yamamoto back was huge, though, and having him in Game 1 (and Game 5, if necessary) along with Jack Flaherty for Game 2 should be enough—provided Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman don't have a repeat of last year's NLDS when they went a combined 1-for-21 with an infield single.
Prediction : Los Angeles 3-2 AL No. 1 New York Yankees vs. AL No.
3 Houston Astros Houston has been one hell of a thorn in New York's side over the past decade. The 2015 wild-card game. The 2017 ALCS.
The 2019 ALCS. The 2022 ALCS. All four resulted in the Astros moving on and the Yankees bowing out.
Will it be more of the same with Houston advancing to its fifth World Series in eight years? Or will New York finally snap its World Series drought before it becomes its longest in more than a century? One thing's for certain: It's going to be funny if Caleb Ferguson plays a key role in the outcome. The left-handed reliever had a 5.13 ERA in 42 appearances with the Yankees before they traded for Enyel De Los Santos and Mark Leiter Jr.
and subsequently shipped Ferguson to Houston for an undrafted, single-A pitching prospect. Since landing with the Astros, though, he has a 2.50 ERA and may well be Plan A for dealing with Juan Soto in the 6th-8th innings.
This should be the year New York finally gets over the Houston hump, though—even with the gigantic question mark looming at the back of the Yankees bullpen. Prediction: New York 4-2 NL No. 1 Philadelphia Phillies vs.
NL No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers Now this is where the health uncertainty in the Dodgers rotation becomes a major forecasting problem. It's one thing to assume Los Angeles will have enough offense to get by the likes of Milwaukee's Colin Rea and Frankie Montas, even if given no choice but to let it ride with some combination of Walker Buehler, Landon Knack and Bobby Miller in Games 3 and 4 of the NLDS.
Going up against Zack Wheeler, Aaron Nola, Cristopher Sánchez and Ranger Suárez is a much different story. Philadelphia went 5-1 during the regular season against Los Angeles, but neither Yoshinobu Yamamoto nor Jack Flaherty started any of those games. Having those guys for up to four starts in this series could be a major difference maker.
Should be an incredible series either way, but give us Shohei Ohtani with some Game 7 heroics— Possibly on the mound??? —in the first postseason of his career. Prediction : Los Angeles 4-3 AL No. 1 New York Yankees vs.
NL No. 2 Los Angeles Dodgers Historically speaking, this has been the most common World Series matchup, and by a fairly wide margin. From 1941-81, the Yankees and Dodgers squared off 11 times in the Fall Classic, with New York winning eight of those titles.
In more than four decades, however, nary a showdown between the two franchises who consistently rank top five in dollars spent in the quest to build a championship roster. Wouldn't this be awesome, though? Aaron Judge, Juan Soto and Gerrit Cole against Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Yoshinobu Yamamoto? Once Soto signs his monster deal this offseason, that's like $2.6 billion worth of star power.
Because it's baseball, though, you just know we would end up with some random hero like Miguel Rojas or Jose Trevino. But, ooh, what if it's Alex Verdugo? After years of being treated as the symbol of how badly Boston butchered that Mookie Betts and David Price trade..
. After weeks of Yankees fans screaming for Jasson Domínguez to get called up; begging for Verdugo to get pushed out of the regular lineup..
. What if Verdugo saves the day with a clutch home run? Or what if Jack Flaherty ends up winning World Series MVP for the Dodgers, delivering gems in Games 1 and 5 before an inning or two of relief in Game 7 to bury the team that balked at trading for him because of injury concerns? The possibilities are endless, but forced to make a prediction six weeks before a World Series that, let's be honest, probably won't actually come to fruition, give me the Yankees in seven. Unless that Paw Patrol curse is for real.
Prediction : New York 4-3.
