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》Click to view SMM aluminum industry chain database 》Order to view SMM metal spot historical prices 4.14 SMM Aluminum Morning Meeting Summary Futures: On Friday night, the most-traded SHFE aluminum 2506 contract opened at 19,700 yuan/mt, with a high of 19,720 yuan/mt and a low of 19,615 yuan/mt, closing at 19,690 yuan/mt, up 50 yuan/mt or 0.25% from the previous close.
On Friday, LME aluminum opened at $2,366/mt, with a high of $2,419/mt and a low of $2,355/mt, closing at $2,397/mt, up $28/mt or 1.18%. Macro: (1) Teams from China and the EU have begun contact on EV negotiations, and the EU may cancel anti-subsidy duties on Chinese-made EVs.
(Bullish★) (2) On April 11, the Customs Tariff Commission of the State Council announced that from April 12, 2025, the tariff rate on imports from the US will increase from 84% to 125%. The US will continue to impose additional tariffs, and China will not respond. (Bearish★) (3) On April 12, Eastern Time, the US released a memorandum exempting certain products such as computers, smartphones, semiconductor manufacturing equipment, and integrated circuits from "reciprocal tariffs.
" China is assessing the impact. This is the second adjustment to the policy since the US temporarily suspended high "reciprocal tariffs" on some trading partners on April 10. This is a small step by the US to correct its unilateral "reciprocal tariff" practices.
(Bullish★) (4) On April 11, CAAM released the latest data showing that China's auto production and sales in Q1 reached 7.561 million and 7.47 million units, up 14.
5% and 11.2% YoY, respectively. NEV sales accounted for 41.
2% of total new car sales. (Bullish★) Fundamentals: (1) Last week, the overall operating rate of China's aluminum downstream processing industry fell 0.38% MoM to 62.
2%. The operating rate weakened in multiple sectors due to sluggish demand, volatile aluminum prices, and trade friction. SMM predicts the operating rate may drop to 61.
5% next week. (Bearish★) (2) According to SMM, on April 11, aluminum ingot inventories in Guangdong, Wuxi, and Gongyi totaled 605,400 mt, down 11,100 mt from the previous day. SMM expects that by mid-April, despite slight inventory buildup after the Qingming Festival, domestic aluminum ingot inventories will likely continue the destocking trend, possibly falling to 700,000-750,000 mt.
Whether the destocking trend will continue in the second half of April depends on the import window dynamics and whether domestic inventory performance will be affected by imported goods, as well as the end of the traditional peak season "Golden March and Silver April" and whether outflows from warehouses will remain strong. (Bullish★) Primary aluminum market: On Friday, the SHFE aluminum early session center shifted downward, with spot premiums holding steady. Downstream restocking sentiment improved over the weekend, and transactions improved.
Specifically, spot prices in east China traded at the SMM average price; in central China, trading improved, with spot prices trading at parity with the SMM central China average. On April 11, SMM A00 aluminum was quoted at 19,580 yuan/mt, down 300 yuan/mt from the previous day, at a premium of 30 yuan/mt to the April contract, up 20 yuan/mt from the previous day. The Henan-Shanghai price spread was -60 yuan/mt, up 10 yuan/mt from the previous day.
SMM central China closed at 19,510 yuan/mt, down 290 yuan/mt from the previous day. Secondary aluminum raw materials: On Friday, the aluminum scrap market followed primary aluminum with a slight decline, with downstream demand not showing a clear peak season trend, maintaining purchasing as needed. Baled UBC was quoted at 14,700-15,300 yuan/mt (excluding tax), and shredded aluminum tense scrap was quoted at 15,850-17,350 yuan/mt (excluding tax).
By region, Hunan, Hubei, and Foshan showed a clear stance on firm quotes, not following the primary aluminum market in price adjustments. Other regions such as Shanghai, Jiangsu, Henan, and Anhui followed A00 with slight price reductions. By product, shredded aluminum tense scrap and wheel hubs removed from vehicles remained unchanged from the previous day.
In the short term, domestic aluminum scrap supply is unlikely to increase, and demand is weakening. Due to the off-peak season effect in the aluminum processing industry, orders are insufficient, and restocking momentum is limited. Secondary aluminum alloy: On Friday, aluminum prices fell again, and the secondary aluminum market's price adjustment sentiment remained sluggish.
Quotes either remained stable or retraced the previous day's 100 yuan/mt increase. SMM ADC12 prices were lowered by 100 yuan/mt to the range of 20,500-20,700 yuan/mt. During the week, volatile aluminum prices intensified downstream companies' risk aversion, with rigid procurement dominating, and market transactions remained sluggish.
Secondary aluminum alloy prices are expected to continue in the doldrums in the short term. Summary: On the macro front, the US dollar fell on Friday, providing support for non-ferrous metals. Recent tariff escalations have impacted the global aluminum trade chain, raising costs and exacerbating supply-demand mismatches.
Overseas risk aversion has increased, but earlier bearish factors have been digested, and market concerns about the impact of re-export trade on aluminum demand have eased. The US announced exemptions for certain products from "reciprocal tariffs," partially alleviating previous tariff pressures. On the supply side, although operating capacity for aluminum in April has increased, domestic capacity ceilings limit significant growth, providing bottom support for aluminum prices.
Cost side, falling spot alumina prices have reduced the comprehensive cost of aluminum. On the demand side, tariff impacts have created a fear of falling prices, but new orders from end-users have slightly increased after aluminum prices fell, and processing companies' purchasing strength has rebounded, with inventories continuing to destock. Overall, macro sentiment has eased, supporting a rebound in non-ferrous metals, and continued destocking of aluminum inventories supports aluminum prices.
In the short term, aluminum prices will maintain a fluctuating trend, and future attention should be paid to tariff policy adjustments and the export situation of aluminum semis and end-users. 【The information provided is for reference only. This article does not constitute direct advice for investment research decisions.
Clients should make decisions cautiously and not use this as a substitute for independent judgment. Any decisions made by clients are unrelated to SMM.】.
