The horses that will win the Derby and Coolmore sprint

Chris Waller is shooting for his sixth victory in the Coolmore sprint at Flemington on Saturday, while our form analysts find you the winners and dissect the big races.

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Master trainer of his generation Chris Waller is out to stamp an unprecedented dominance on the stallion-making Coolmore Stud Stakes at Flemington on Saturday by winning the $2 million sprint for the sixth time across 12 years. Waller, who wins the race on average once every two years, believes he has the colt, Switzerland, to deliver him a neat half dozen. The Chris Waller-trained Switzerland is one of the favourites for the group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes.

Credit: Getty Images The Sydney-based trainer first won the group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m) in 2013 with Zoustar and followed it up with Brazen Beau (2014), Japonisme (2015), September Run (2020) and Home Affairs (2021). Fresh off Via Sistina’s Cox Plate blitz , Waller told a crowded media conference on Friday that the $1.5 million Coolmore-owned colt Switzerland had come to Melbourne in “really good form”.



“He trialled up the straight last Friday, which is always a good guide for us,” Waller said. “James McDonald was aboard, and he had a smile from ear to ear.” Waller does not have a runner in this year’s group 1 VRC Derby, but another former Kiwi Michael Dee is hoping he will be aboard the winner.

Dee, who won the 2500m staying test for three-year-olds on the Waller-trained Manzoice in 2022, will ride outsider Kingofwallstreet for Matt Cumani in what the jockey describes as a wide-open race. “The favourite (El Castello) has drawn the car park and that horse needs a lot of luck. Outside of the favourite, anything can win really,” Dee said on Friday.

“The horse I’m riding won last-start quite impressively and is a good, tough Derby type of horse, so I’m very happy.” VRC Derby Day First race: 12.20pm Coolmore Stud Stakes: 3.

40pm VRC Derby: 4.20pm TRACK: Good 4. RAIL: True.

PATTERN: Fine and warm weather means trackman Liam O’Keeffe can present a near perfect surface with the rail back in the true position for the first since the September 14 meeting. As a rule of thumb when the north wind blows, as forecast, outside barriers are the place to be in straight races. WEATHER: Saturday - mostly sunny, northerly winds 20-30km/h, top of 26C.

Nick Ryan with his VRC Derby runner Red Aces. Credit: Eddie Jim Race 7: $2m group 1 VRC Derby (2500m), 4.20pm The favourite: El Castello ticks all boxes bar one – he has drawn barrier 18 of 18, which is so wide it practically puts him in the Maribyrnong River to start the race.

Other than that, he is absolutely the horse to beat. He kicked off this campaign with a win in a Warwick Farm maiden over 1400m and since then, has won another three straight, holding off all comers in the group 1 Spring Champion Stakes over 2000m at Randwick last start. If he can get across to the front without using too many petrol tickets at the start of the race, he can win.

The threats: There is a sense of timing about King Of Thunder, who was the run of the race when finishing a nose third in last week’s Moonee Valley Vase behind Red Aces. Trainer John O’Shea has a skill of getting them right for Cup Week, and can be lethal when he legs super hoop James McDonald on board. Red Aces is a talented stayer for Nick Ryan, who was strong to the line winning the Vase, while there is little between Politely Dunn, China Sea, Keeneland and Goldrush Guru.

Michael Dee is aiming for his second win in succession on Kingofwallstreet. Credit: Getty Images The outsiders: In one of the more open Derby events in recent memory, strong cases can also be made for the Matt Cumani-trained Kingofwallstreet, who beat China Sea and Keeneland home in the group 3 Norman Robinson (2000m) last start, while Ciaron Maher’s Saint Emilion was a strong winner of the Geelong Classic (2200m). Tim Habel 1st El Castello (No.

1), 2nd Red Aces 2 (No.2), 3rd Goldrush Guru (No.4) Habel says: El Castello is a class act and trainer Anthony Cummings has already prepared two Derby winners including Fiveandahalfstar (2012) which won on the same seven-day back-up this colt will attempt.

Danny Russell 1st King Of Thunder (No.8), 2nd El Castello (No.1), 3rd Politely Dun (No.

7), 4th: Red Aces (No.2) Russell says: A tough race in which a case can be made for half the field, I am settling on up-and-comer King Of Thunder, who put the writing on the wall with a strong third in the Moonee Valley Vase. Race 6: $2m group 1 Coolmore Stud Stakes (1200m), 3.

40pm The favourite: Growing Empire brings in the A-grade form, having run second in the group 1 Manikato Stakes and then third in The Everest against the older horses. He also has big-race rider Mark Zahra doing the steering. The one query is whether he has already had his grand finals.

The threats: There are a number of worthy challengers in a deep race. Golden Slipper-winning filly Lady Of Camelot ran a strong fourth in The Everest, a nose behind Growing Empire. Jamie Kah’s ride Traffic Warden was fancied to win The Everest before playing up in the barriers and being scratched before the race.

If he behaves himself on Saturday, he can win. Trainer Chris Waller has won the Coolmore five times since 2013, and is confident his colt Switzerland will run well. Bellatrix Star has been beating the older horses.

The outsiders: Coleman finished second behind Switzerland at his last start and is three times the odds, while First Settler loves the Flemington straight and Bittercreek looks better than a 50-1 shot. Tim Habel Coolmore selections: 1st Traffic Warden (No.3), 2nd Growing Empire (No.

1), 3rd Switzerland (No.5) Habel says: Traffic Warden was a late scratching at the barrier from the $20m Everest, but that means he’s the fresh horse on the scene. Close second to stablemate Broadsiding in the Group 1 Golden Rose says he has the class.

Habel’s Derby Day best: Schwarz (Race 3, No 6) - Talented sprinter from Sydney reserved for our carnival. Proven fresh, most of his rivals have met their mark and looks suited in barrier 10. Habel’s next best: El Castello (Race 7, No 1) - Sole Group 1 winner in the field, has the outside draw but on ratings he has lengths on this field.

Habel’s roughie: Alsephina (Race 8, No 7) - Classy WA mare gallant in defeat in the Toorak Handicap. Set for the race and has placed in all five 1600m starts, four in Group company. Danny Russell Coolmore selections: 1st Switzerland (No.

5), 2nd Lady Of Camelot (No.13), 3rd Growing Empire (No.1), 4th Traffic Warden (No.

3). Russell says: Backing the trainer and the jockey - Chris Waller and James McDonald - as much as the horse here. Switzerland bounced back to form with an impressive two-length win in the group 2 Roman Consul last start.

Russell’s Derby Day best: Another Wil (Race 4, No.2) - Shaping as the story of Derby Day if star hoop Jamie Kah can win aboard a horse owned by her late mate Colin McKenna. The biggest danger is stablemate Jimmysstar.

Have a saver on the quinella. Russell’s next best: Schwarz (Race 3, No.6): No one sets a horse for Melbourne Cup week like John O’Shea.

By all reports this horse has been flying. Russell’s roughie: Chewing Gum (Race 2, No.14): Flies home late and is a decent chance in a wide-open race.

Would love to hear trainer Matt Hill call, ‘Chewing Gum sticking to the rail’. Derby Day quaddie: 1st leg: 1, 2, 3, 5, 13, 14. 2nd leg: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 11.

3rd leg: 1, 2, 3. 4th leg: 3..