1 week Ago
Thailand is fast isolating itself from the international community and falling behind in the emerging geoeconomic warfare to the detriment of its economy and people. The elected government of Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra is ironically coming up with outcomes that resemble those of the military administration a decade ago. Thailand must now move quickly to contain policy damage and restore its international standing to navigate and come out of the intensifying geoeconomic war in as decent a shape as possible.
A decade ago after its last military coup in May 2014, Thailand had to sidle and suck up to China because it was criticised and shunned by the international community for violations of basic rights and freedoms. Yet, soon after the first administration of President Donald Trump began, Gen Prayut Chan-o-cha, as junta leader and prime minister of the military government, was able to visit the White House in October 2017. Evidently, Mr Trump did not care about promoting democracy.
His reception of Gen Prayut allowed the Thai military regime to rebalance up to a point and not to be completely beholden to Beijing. Nearly a decade later, President Trump still shows no signs of concern for democratisation and the promotion of rights and freedoms. However, the United States' foreign policy establishment is a different story in Thailand's case.
The Paetongtarn government has been reprimanded by the US State Department for deporting 40 Uyghurs to China on Feb 27. These Muslim Uyghurs were among more than 200 who fled persecution from China's Xinjiang province to seek refuge in Thailand in 2014. Despite reassurances and pledges for their safe return to the Chinese authorities, the Thai government's Uyghur deportation betrayed US Secretary of State Marco Rubio's statement during his Senate confirmation hearing on Jan 15 that Thailand as a US ally would do no such thing.
When it happened, Secretary Rubio slapped visa restrictions on Thai officials who were "complicit" in the deportation. The senior Thai officials involved presumably go up to the highest echelons, including Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra and Deputy Prime Minister and Defence Minister Phumtham Wechayachai, not to mention the heads of the National Security Council and National Police Office. If Thailand's prime minister is not allowed to visit the US, it would be a big deal in the Thai government's planned negotiations with the Trump administration over the 36% tariff it has imposed on Thailand.
The Uyghur case is now haunting Prime Minister Paetongtarn and presumably her father, former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra, who is seen to be running the government from behind. They can feign ignorance and nonchalance. On April 2, when the Trump reciprocal tariffs were announced, the prime minister was out and about in Buri Ram and later said appropriate committees have been set up to negotiate with the US to address Thailand's $46 billion trade surplus and reduce the US's unilateral levies.
But it will likely not be enough to set up committees and assign a deputy prime minister to hammer out a deal. Foreign leaders have been visiting Mr Trump at the White House and/or communicating with him on calls to negotiate and come to terms. Why isn't Thailand's government leader? Is it the case that Thailand's prime minister is not allowed to visit and conduct talks in Washington because of visa restrictions owing to Secretary Rubio's order in response to the Uyghurs' deportation? If so, the government's Uyghur move was a strategic mistake, costly to the Thai economy and damaging to the public interest.
Adding salt to the wound of the Uyghurs' deportation, the government invited and received Senior General Min Aung Hlaing to the recent Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (Bimstec) summit. After staging a military coup just over four years ago and plunging Myanmar into a dark civil war and dire economic conditions for its people, Gen Min Aung Hlaing has been internationally reviled. Photographs of the Thai prime minister's warm handshake with the Myanmar dictator marginalise and ostracise Thailand in the global arena.
Worse, why did the Thai government side with Myanmar's heinous and brutal dictator when he is losing his grip on the country as the opposing anti-junta resistance coalition gains more territory month after month? Was it because Mr Thaksin has a personal relationship with the senior general? The Asean five-point consensus already provides a way to deal with Gen Min Aung Hlaing. He has not been allowed at Asean summits. Thailand could have argued this precedence in the Bimstec context.
It gets worse. The arrest this week of Paul Chambers, the well-regarded American scholar who works at Naresuan University in Phitsanulok province, on lese majeste charges filed by commander of the Third Army will keep Thailand on the State Department's radar screen. What stands out about Dr Chambers' case is that his work on the military and monarchy in Thai society and politics is scholarly without personal prejudices.
Dr Chambers is a prolific author and kind of a run-of-the-mill academic without a personal axe to grind. Although it is not the government's doing, the Chambers' arrest nevertheless imposes a higher cost not just on the military but on Thailand's dealings at home and abroad. It will attract the kind of international attention and scrutiny the army wants to avoid and Thailand needs to stay away from.
This case tightens the lid on academic freedom and will lead to further closing of Thai minds and undermine the intellectual and research ecosystem required to promote ideas and innovation to drive the Thai economy forward. Much has been damaged in Thailand's international standing. The Thai government must move fast in the short term to redress grievances and address the US trade deficit with Thailand.
Thailand sent $55 billion dollars' worth of goods to the US last year, representing 19% of all Thai exports. The government needs to come up with a package of concessions and trade-offs that can be leveraged and locate a compelling leader that the Trump team will listen to and deal with. It is a tall but unavoidable order.
In the medium and long term, Thailand can adjust and diversify away from the US towards other markets, as well as rely more on consumption at home by increasing income, bringing down household debt, and boosting jobs. Thitinan Pongsudhirak, PhD, is professor at Chulalongkorn University's Faculty of Political Science and a senior fellow at its Institute of Security and International Studies in Bangkok..
