5 days Ago By hellenicshippingnews...
“As a result, crude imports have fallen by 440 kbd year on year. China doesn’t disclose its stockpiling numbers, but reports have suggested that a significant share of imports has flown into inventories. Further, refinery runs have consistently been below expectations, weighing on CPP exports and the broader clean tanker market.
However, a factor that isn’t as easy to spot in the numbers is that China has been adjusting the sourcing of its crude. Imports from far flung regions have shrunk, while imports from nearby sources have grown”, Gibson said. Source: Gibson Shipbrokers According to the shipbroker, “in 2019, Chinese crude imports from ports to the west of the Suez Canal amounted to 3.
8 mbd, and 5.2 mbd from ports to the east of the Suez Canal. So far in 2024, crude imports from ports west of Suez stand at 3.
1 mbd, and 7 mbd from ports east of Suez. Whilst distances vary between ports west of Suez and east of Suez, this shift has likely resulted in lower tonne mile demand than could otherwise have been expected”. “Large geopolitical changes have occurred since 2019, with notable shifts in trade flows as a result.
China’s zero covid policy, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the de facto closure of the Red Sea to mainstream tankers by the Houthis have all strongly impacted seaborne crude flows. A significant share of the global oil trade is now transported by the grey fleet, which transports sanctioned oil flows from countries such as Russia, Iran, and Venezuela to countries willing to turn a blind eye, such as India and China”, Gibson said. The shipbroker added that “Chinese imports from Russian ports west of Suez have been volatile, and 2024 levels so far have increased by 125 kbd compared to the same period in 2019.
Notably, imports from ports in the East have grown steadily, increasing by 430 kbd in the same period. Whilst the growth in Russian seaborne crude exports to China is significant, the growth in Iranian flows to China is even greater. Imports from Iran have increased from 360 kbd to 1.
2 mbd, partly due to strong increases in crude production. Meanwhile, imports from the rest of the Arabian Gulf increased from 3.7 mbd to 4.
4 mbd, despite production cuts. In the same period, flows from crude exporters west of Suez such as West Africa, Libya, the North Sea, and Latin America have decreased sharply. Over half of the decline stems from West Africa, of which much is attributable to a decline in production”.
Gibson concluded that “it is difficult to quantify the overall impact on tonne mile demand, partly because the change in import patterns has been influenced by a shift from the mainstream tanker fleet to the grey fleet. However, it is clear that previously established long-haul exports into China have declined to the benefit of shorter haul trade patterns”. Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide.
