2 weeks Ago By Noor Humair
The Arab Spring movement of 2011 has yet again proved its mettle, this time in Syria, and that too after almost 15 years of its inception. The local rebel group known by the name Hayat Tahrir al-Sham has successfully knocked down the Assad regime and has embarked on a journey to “Build Syria” according to the contours of democracy and civil welfare. Meanwhile, President Bashar al-Assad has fled Syria and taken refuge in Russia.
Social media videos of his residence being rummaged through by the rebels present a reminiscent memory of Iraq at the start of the US invasion in 2003 when rebels brought down the statue of Saddam Hussein to mark the end of tyranny and usher in a new era of freedom, as promised by the US-led Western alliance. The Arab Spring had indeed aimed at implementing democracy in the Middle East and beyond, but the fact remains that very few nations in the region have been able to do so in spirit. Apart from Tunisia, the movement has largely proved to be a disaster for countries like Libya, Iraq, Jordan, and Lebanon, which have descended into economic and political chaos ever since.
Even Tunisia, initially hailed as the victor of the Arab Spring, has spiralled back into the strangulating dictatorship of President Saied. One may say that in these countries, democracy has been implemented only for the West’s ad hoc interests and not in spirit. Customs foils attempt to manipulate FCAS As far as Syria’s internal condition is concerned, numerous interest groups are vying for power amidst the volatile security situation in the country.
To begin with, the Kurdish minorities, especially the Syrian Democratic Forces in the northeast, are likely to resuscitate their demands for a separate homeland or at least the formalisation of Kurdish rule in the northeastern region. This, in turn, might cause Turkey to take up a more defensive approach, thereby jeopardising the security of the entire region. Next, Syria’s Alawite community in post-Assad Syria might prove to be a nightmare due to the shifting power balance towards the Sunni groups.
It is important to note that while Bashar himself is from the Alawite Shia minority, there is a lingering sense of betrayal among the community, as many consider Bashar’s fleeing to Russia a cowardly move by the long-reigning dictator. On the other hand, the Arab Sunni majority, which has been at the forefront of the rebellion, now has the greatest role to play in the country’s domestic as well as foreign affairs. The leading rebel militant group and an al-Qaeda associate, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, is likely to consolidate its rule in northwest Syria based on a mostly conservative Sunni ideology, which in turn is likely to invite resentment from the West.
Some even fear Syria may become another Afghanistan, with strangulated rights for both women and minorities under their rule. Gold price up by Rs400 per tola The fall of the Assad regime is not, however, a solely national phenomenon, as there has been external involvement. The US has long been invested and interested in bringing about an end to Assad’s rule in Syria, mainly because of its alliance with Iranian and Russian influence.
On the Iran-Syria connection, Iran has long been using Assad’s Syria as a route to operate militant organisations like Hezbollah in Lebanon. Now, with a staunch Sunni presence in Syria, Iran is likely to face a hard time finding a route into the Middle East. Russia has lost one of its strongest allies, Assad’s Syria, and has now been abandoned in the Arab world.
If one relates this to the Cold War scenario, when the US and Russia were vying for power in the Middle East and beyond, one may say that the Western-led alliance has yet to win in Syria after having successfully ousted Russian influence from the region completely. Now, Russia has to look for another, and perhaps a new, ally in the area to maintain any influence in the region. Radisson Blu Resort, Murree: A new benchmark for luxury hospitality The US has already increased its military presence in the Levant due to the resurging threat of ISIL and ISIS.
The renewed confrontation between the US and these UN-designated terrorist organisations might reinvigorate the likes of the Global War on Terror and draw the attention of various state as well as non-state actors. As of right now, there is an ongoing euphoria among Syrians as well as elements of the international community regarding the fall of the Assad regime, as promises of democracy and public welfare have heightened people’s hopes. However, once the initial euphoria subsides, the real issues facing Syria’s complex future are bound to set in, with pertinent questions to be solved regarding the economic outlook of the nation, the smooth functioning of democracy, the role of domestic and international actors, and the political status quo.
Noor Humair The writer is an undergraduate student at the Forman Christian Collage University in Lahore. She is majoring in Economics. NBP collaborates with BenchMatrix Tags: syria future.
