1 day Ago By Samirul Ariff Othman
In today's world, where great power rivalry is the defining feature of geopolitics, Southeast Asian nations are not just surviving—they're mastering the art of strategic hedging. This isn't about playing the US and China off each other for short-term gains. It's about creating a web of relationships that maximises autonomy while minimising dependency.
If you're a small state in the Indo-Pacific, you can't afford to be locked into a single power's orbit. That's why Asean nations are diversifying their strategic partnerships, forging deeper economic and security ties with Japan, South Korea, the European Union, and India.Take Japan, for example.
While China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) floods the region with infrastructure projects, Japan offers a counterbalance—high-quality investments in rail, energy, and digital connectivity, all without the debt-trap concerns. South Korea, meanwhile, has emerged as an indispensable partner in technology, defence, and green energy, ensuring that Asean nations don't have to choose between Chinese tech dominance or American supply chains. The European Union is aggressively expanding Free Trade Agreements (FTAs) with Asean nations, giving them greater market access without relying too heavily on Washington or Beijing.
And let's not forget India—through its "Act East" policy, New Delhi is stepping up as both an economic and security partner, providing Asean with another option in the Indo-Pacific's power play.But this strategy isn't just about economic diversification—it's about survival. The reality of today's geopolitics is an impossible trinity: no small state can maximise security, prosperity, and autonomy all at once.
Lean too heavily on Washington, and you lose strategic independence. Bet everything on Beijing, and you risk economic overreliance and coercion. Try to go it alone, and you end up isolated in a world dominated by giants.
The smartest small states aren't picking sides; they're picking strategies. Look at Indonesia, knee-deep in China's BRI while simultaneously expanding security ties with the US Vietnam is doing the same—strengthening military cooperation with Washington while keeping strong trade relations with Beijing. Malaysia, the master of pragmatism, threads the needle between superpowers, ensuring that Chinese investments don't come at the expense of strategic autonomy.
The lesson? In a world of geopolitical tectonic shifts, the best strategy isn't to pledge loyalty—it's to keep your options open.And then there's the wildcard: the United States itself. With Trump 2.
0 back in the White House, all bets are off. The Philippines, under Marcos Jr, has fully aligned itself with Washington, banking on the US as a reliable patron. But what happens if Washington decides to pivot elsewhere? What if "America First" means "Asia Last"? That's the risk of full alignment—your fate is no longer in your hands.
The Philippines' decision to embrace the US alliance may seem logical today, but history has shown that American foreign policy can be fickle, shifting dramatically with political changes in Washington.By contrast, Asean's hedging strategy ensures that its member states are not left stranded if US priorities shift toward domestic concerns, Europe, or the Middle East. Rather than putting all their eggs in one basket, these nations are investing in multiple relationships to ensure continuity regardless of geopolitical fluctuations.
The name of the game is "Kancil Diplomacy", inspired by the mouse-deer of Malay folklore, which survives not through brute force but through wit and agility. Southeast Asia isn't flexing military muscle—it's outmanoeuvring the giants, cutting deals where it can, playing the long game, and ensuring it stays relevant without becoming a pawn.One way it's doing this? Plugging into Global Value Chains (GVCs) without getting trapped.
The "China Plus One" strategy—where companies are diversifying their supply chains beyond China—has created a golden opportunity for Vietnam, Malaysia, and Indonesia. These countries aren't just absorbing low-end manufacturing jobs; they're moving up the value chain. Vietnam is a rising semiconductor powerhouse.
Malaysia is making inroads in aerospace and medical technology. Indonesia is staking its claim in EV battery production. The strategy here is simple: make yourself indispensable to multiple players so that no single power controls your fate.
In a world of economic fragmentation, the real power move isn't just joining supply chains—it's ensuring you can pivot if one of them starts looking more like a trap than an opportunity.This isn't just about the US and China anymore. Small states are aligning with multiple powers to hedge against uncertainty.
Japan is pouring investments into Southeast Asia as an alternative to China's BRI. South Korea is deepening ties in defence and technology. The EU is expanding free trade agreements, offering a counterbalance to both Washington and Beijing.
And India, through its "Act East" policy, is emerging as a new security and economic player in the region. The message? In a world of great power rivalry, the best insurance policy is to diversify your friends.Now, let's be clear: hedging isn't perfect.
It has costs, inefficiencies, and risks. But in an unpredictable world, it's the only strategy that makes sense. Asean nations aren't sitting on the fence—they're building multiple bridges, ensuring that no matter which way the geopolitical winds blow, they won't be left stranded.
Because in a world where superpowers are playing chess, the smartest small states are playing something else entirely—poker. And in poker, the best hand isn't always the strongest one—it's the one that keeps the other players guessing.——————————————————————Economist Samirul Ariff Othman is an international relations analyst.
He completed his graduate studies at Macquarie University in Sydney, Australia. The views in this op-ed piece are entirely his own.© New Straits Times Press (M) Bhd.
