1 week Ago By David Kenyon
In the closing stretch of the 2024 regular season, key results are immediately viewed through the College Football Playoff lens. Did a marquee win turn a CFP hopeful into a lock? Conversely, how badly did a surprising upset hurt a team's resume? Those are simply two of the many questions that can be asked at this point on the calendar. Fear not, my friends, B/R has you covered.
Heading into Week 12, a few programs either just had a significant result or are preparing for a massive game. Every result is impactful, but exactly how much weight a win or loss carries can be debated. The five choices—stock way up, slightly up, neutral, slightly down and way down—are subjective but consider a team's overall record and performance, head-to-head results and the current CFP rankings.
The craziest part, by far, is LSU actually has a reasonable path to the SEC Championship Game. Yes, you read that correctly. There are disaster scenarios, of course, but a simple version is LSU needs to sweep Florida, Vanderbilt and Oklahoma to close the season, plus a bunch of favorites to win—think Georgia over Tennessee and Texas over Texas A&M—and Missouri losses to both South Carolina and Arkansas.
At worst, it's not implausible! So, sure, Tigers' fans can keep hanging onto the fading hope of making the SEC title game. Even if LSU backdoors its way to Atlanta, though, what about the recent losses to Texas A&M and Alabama are reason for optimism? The offense committed six turnovers as LSU lost by a combined score of 80-36. The path to the CFP exists, but 6-3 LSU is not playing anywhere close to the level of a legitimate contender.
If the Hurricanes' recent loss at Georgia Tech didn't change your opinion on them, join the club! Miami's defense was mediocre once again, continuing on a trend that had been growing since late September. Cam Ward and the offense had pulled off a few escapes but fell short in Week 11. The upset plainly showed Miami's known weakness.
As far as impact, however, it just ruined the shine of an unbeaten record. Miami's path to the Playoff remains the same: If the 'Canes beat Wake Forest and Syracuse, they're guaranteed a place in the ACC Championship Game. Clemson and SMU cannot both be ahead of Miami in a three-way tiebreaker, no matter what happens elsewhere.
For a solid month-plus, a popular idea has been that Miami may give up 40 points but be able to score 45 anyway. That perception didn't change after one loss. You want controversy? Tennessee can provide it.
In the Week 12 CFP rankings, the order of SEC teams chasing Texas is sensible. Tennessee (seventh) sits in front of Alabama (ninth), which UT defeated in October. Bama is ahead of Ole Miss (10th), and both teams own victories over Georgia (11th).
That's nice and orderly! Let's hypothesize for a moment that UGA defeats Tennessee this weekend, though. Truly, it's anyone's guess how the selection committee will balance a resume with a victory over Bama and loss to UGA. If you're asking for my gut feeling, I believe UT fans won't like the answer—especially if South Carolina keeps winning.
The good news for Tennessee—should the Vols topple rival Georgia—is that conversation does not matter anyway! Win that matchup, and UT should be CFP-bound with a 10-2 record. But if Tennessee falls, hindsight may eventually show the Volunteers' trip to UGA was a make-or-break moment. At first glance, you might believe Ole Miss should be "way up" instead of just slightly after rolling over Georgia.
In short: The margin is pretty thin. There are, however, a few problematic scenarios that drop Ole Miss to the wrong side of the CFP bubble. For example, Tennessee beats UGA before Texas A&M upsets Texas and takes down Tennessee in the SEC title game.
Throw in a one-loss Notre Dame, and that picture isn't quite as pleasant for Ole Miss. Maybe an undefeated BYU falls in the Big 12 Championship Game but still finishes higher in the rankings. Also not ideal for the Rebels.
The challenge is we cannot definitively say either situation is—or, worse yet for Ole Miss, both are—unrealistic. Force me to pick today, and I'm saying Lane Kiffin's team slides into the CFP. But if any "bid-stealer" outside the top 11 wins a conference title, the Rebels may occupy an uncomfortable seat on Selection Day.
Indiana, at 10-0, is not a Playoff lock. But the Hoosiers are so very close to demanding that label. The record is obviously sensational, and the Hoosiers seemingly pass the eye test.
The selection committee has been clear it will select what the group considers the best teams— not the most deserving—and IU is outscoring its opponents by 30.1 points per game. In my book, that easily qualifies as one of the "best" 12 teams.
If the Hoosiers win on the road at Ohio State on Nov. 23, write them in pen. The incredible story of first-year coach Curt Cignetti would undoubtedly have a CFP chapter in that case.
Beyond that, I believe a competitive loss at OSU and a victory over rival Purdue would still be enough. Not seeing an 11-1 program from the Big Ten in the Playoff would be stunning, really. At this point, the only scenario that should keep IU out of the CFP is a lopsided loss at Ohio State plus a loss to Purdue.
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