2 weeks Ago
Domestic markets are expected to open the final trading day of the current fiscal on a flat note on Friday despite mixed global cues. Gift Nifty at 23,760 indicates a flat opening with negative bias. Analysts expect the trading to be light, though small and mid-cap stocks may continue to remain under pressure.
According to analysts, global headwinds will keep the market in check. Looking ahead, focus shifts to key events including US inflation data and upcoming tariff decisions. India Inc’s Q4 performance and FY26 outlook will drive market sentiment, they added.
“India faces the risk of reciprocal tariffs from the US. Our analysis suggests that India’s direct export loss due to such tariffs could be limited to around 0.1% of GDP.
However, the broader impact of a global trade war could be more significant through various indirect channels, including weaker exports, investment and consumption sentiment, and potential pressures on capital flows and currency, said CareEdge.” FPI flows are likely to remain volatile amidst global uncertainties, putting pressure on the rupee. We expect the USD/INR to trade around 88-89 by the end of FY26,” it said adding “We expect the RBI to cut the policy rate by 25-50bps in FY26 due to moderating inflation and the need to support growth, while also taking cues from global developments.
” According to analysts, F&O data has turned negative. Dhupesh Dhameja, Derivatives Analyst, SAMCO Securities, said the derivatives market depicts a slightly bearish bias, with call writers holding the upper hand over put writers, hinting at a dip in traders’ confidence. Heavy call writing at the 24,000 strike (43.
95 lakh contracts) has established it as a formidable resistance, while substantial put writing at the 23,500 level (41 lakh contracts) underlines strong support, reinforcing bullish sentiment at the lower end, he said. “The 23,500–23,300 range has transformed into a key accumulation zone, backed by aggressive put additions, whereas the 23,700–24,000 territory faces notable resistance due to persistent call writing. Additionally, the Put-Call Ratio (PCR) climbed from 0.
81 to 0.86, reflecting cautious positioning among traders,” he added. Chandan Taparia, Head Derivatives & Technicals, Wealth Management, Motilal Oswal Financial Services Ltd, said: The FIIs long-short ratio has increased to 33 per cent, which shows there is a short-covering trigger in the market and decreasing India Vix indicates buying at lower levels.
N India VIX, the primary gauge of market volatility, dipped 1.26% to 13.30, indicating lower uncertainty.
As long as volatility remains below 15, market conditions are expected to retain a bullish undertone with minimal disruptions. Comments.
