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Indian bonds are set for the best year in four and investors expect more gains on a combination of policy drivers and resilient domestic demand. The central bank’s rate cuts anticipated from early next year on slowing economic growth, continued index-inclusion-related foreign inflows and strong demand from local pension and insurance companies are likely to further burnish the appeal of sovereign notes. Quantum Asset Management forecasts the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond to fall as much as 50 basis points by mid-2025, while Trust Mutual Fund sees the rate sliding toward 6.
25%-6.5% over the next year and a half. While a resurgent dollar and higher Treasury yields have dented the appeal of emerging-market assets in recent weeks on concerns about US President-elect Donald Trump’s policies, Indian bonds have remained largely insulated.
Even as “there are headwinds from a stronger dollar and higher US Treasury yields, the ongoing bond index inclusion flows are likely to provide sustained solid passive support to Indian bonds,” Barclays Plc strategists including Mitul Kotecha wrote in a note. Stock Trading Point & Figure Chart Mastery: A Comprehensive Trading Guide By - Mukta Dhamankar, Full Time Trader, 15 Years Experience, Instructor View Program Stock Trading Ichimoku Trading Unlocked: Expert Analysis and Strategy By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading Heikin Ashi Trading Tactics: Master the Art of Trading By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading Dow Theory Made Easy By - Vishal Mehta, Independent Systematic Trader View Program Stock Trading RSI Trading Techniques: Mastering the RSI Indicator By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading Options Scalping Made Easy By - Sivakumar Jayachandran, Ace Scalper View Program Stock Trading Options Trading Made Easy: Options Trading Course By - Anirudh Saraf, Founder- Saraf A & Associates, Chartered Accountant View Program Stock Trading Derivative Analytics Made Easy By - Vivek Bajaj, Co Founder- Stockedge and Elearnmarkets View Program Stock Trading Candlesticks Made Easy: Candlestick Pattern Course By - elearnmarkets, Financial Education by StockEdge View Program Stock Trading Technical Analysis Demystified: A Complete Guide to Trading By - Kunal Patel, Options Trader, Instructor View Program Stock Trading Cryptocurrency Made Easy: Cryptocurrency Course By - elearnmarkets, Financial Education by StockEdge View Program Stock Trading Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading A2Z of Stock Trading - Online Stock Trading Course By - elearnmarkets, Financial Education by StockEdge View Program Stock Trading Complete Guide to Stock Market Trading: From Basics to Advanced By - Harneet Singh Kharbanda, Full Time Trader View Program Stock Trading Market 103: Mastering Trends with RMI and Techno-Funda Insights By - Rohit Srivastava, Founder- Indiacharts.com View Program Bloomberg The yield on the 10-year bond fell by nine basis points on Friday to close at 6.
74%, a few basis points lower than early November when the US election results were announced. Bonds rallied on Friday after data showed India’s gross domestic product grew at its slowest pace in almost two years, stoking hopes of liquidity-easing measures or interest-rate cuts by the central bank. That’s not to say the market has been free of volatility.
Yields rose to 6.87% on Nov. 22, the highest in more than two months, as some global investors chose to cash in until further clarity on Trump’s policy.
The rush of inflows driven by the nation’s inclusion in JPMorgan Chase & Co.’s flagship index is also taking a breather. Notwithstanding the short-term swings, 10-year yields are down more than 40 basis points this year, the most since 2020.
That happened as local bonds received about $15 billion of foreign inflows during the period, aided by the JPMorgan gauge addition. (You can now subscribe to our ETMarkets WhatsApp channel ).
