Spring weather forecast: Above-average temperatures expected globally as La Niña fades

Above-average temperatures are forecast across nearly all of the world’s land areas during spring and into summer as a weak La Niña weather event begins to fade. This week, meteorologists said that most maritime regions are also set to be warmer than normal. “With above-normal sea surface temperatures expected to persist across all major oceans — except for the near-equatorial eastern Pacific — the latest Global Seasonal Climate Update forecasts above-average temperatures over nearly all land areas worldwide,” the World Meteorological Organization said in an update .

Within the next month, above-average temperatures are expected across much of the southern and eastern regions of the U.S., with the exception of the Northeast .



Arizona, New Mexico and Texas are predicted to see some of the warmest weather, and temperatures throughout the spring could potentially average more than 4 degrees above the states' historical average, according to the forecasting company AccuWeather . "The Southwest will remain dry and heat up quickly," AccuWeather Long-range Expert Paul Pastelok said. "Drought will expand and intensify throughout the region from Southern California to the southwestern Plains.

" However, the pattern will leave the Pacific Northwest colder due to persistent stormy weather that includes snow. “The storm track in the West can retreat quickly and center more over the Pacific Northwest and western Canada by March," Pastelok said. "The transition to spring will be near average or faster across the central Rockies.

" Areas from the interior Northeast to the Midwest could also see some late-season snowfall, as the central feels the impact of severe weather and tornadoes. The cooler air around the Great Lakes will help to stop severe weather across most of the regions for the first part of the spring and the end of La Niña. La Niña, a natural climate pattern, results in cooler Pacific Ocean temperatures.

In the U.S., a La Niña year means winter temperatures are warmer than normal in the South and cooler than normal in the North.

It can also lead to a more severe Atlantic hurricane season . It is the cold phase of the El Niño Southern Oscillation,. The oscillation is one of the most important climate phenomena on Earth, involving fluctuating ocean temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, coupled with changes in the atmosphere.

The oscillation has the ability to alter the movement of air around the globe. The climate pattern occurs in irregular cycles of two to seven years. The oscillation can have a strong influence on weather across the U.

S. The oscillation presents itself in three phases , including La Niña, El Niño and a neutral phase . While a La Niña event is characterized by a period of colder-than-average sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific Ocean and intensification of east-to-west surface winds, an El Niño event is characterized by a period of sea surface warming and the resulting suppression of cold rising water off the coast of Peru and Ecuador, typically lasting between 12 and 18 months.

An El Niño year brings drier and warmer conditions to the northern U.S. and flooding to the Southeast and Gulf Coast.

Hurricane development is amplified in the Pacific. In neutral , Pacific sea surface temperatures are generally close to average. Hurricane development is not amplified.

There is a 60 percent chance that conditions will shift back to neutral between March and May, with that chance increasing to 70 percent for a shift between April and June, according to the World Meteorological Organization. The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration says the chance of a shift back to neutral between March and May could be even higher . Forecasters noted that these natural climate events are also occurring alongside human-driven climate change , which is warming the planet and causing more extreme weather.

Despite the cooler La Niña conditions, January was the warmest January on record, and 2024 was the hottest year on record . Since 2020, approximately 90 percent of 247 U.S.

cities have set more heat records than cold ones, according to non-profit Climate Central ..