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Senior figures in and around the Liberal Party are considering whether to enter the race to replace Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, but it remains unclear if a new face can breathe new life into the party's electoral chances. After weeks of mounting calls to resign, Trudeau announced Monday he'll step down as soon as his party chooses a successor. The Governor General has also agreed to his request to prorogue Parliament until March 24 — giving Trudeau's party just 76 more days to mount a leadership campaign and ready for an all-but-certain spring election all while trailing the Conservatives by more than 20 points in the polls.
It's a daunting task, said Dan Arnold, the chief strategy officer at Pollara who previously worked as Trudeau's pollster, and might not be enough to add oomph to the party's floundering fortunes. Trudeau says he's not the right choice to lead party in next election, promises to resign as PM Analysis Trudeau removes himself from the equation, but the math doesn't get much easier "Liberals, they got a big hole to get out of right now. And I think right now by Trudeau resigning he's kind of given them the rope and a chance to pull themselves out of that hole," said Arnold.
"But it's still something where after 10 years people look for change." WATCH | Trudeau to resign after Liberal leadership race: Trudeau to resign after Liberal leadership race 21 hours ago Duration 8:10 Justin Trudeau announced he’ll step down as prime minister and Liberal leader after the party selects his replacement. Trudeau also said Governor General Mary Simon granted his request to prorogue Parliament until March 24.
Shachi Kurl, president of the Angus Reid Institute, said while Canadians grew tired of Trudeau, removing him doesn't solve the Liberals' problems with voters. "Trudeau defined the Liberal Party for more than a decade ..
. sure, the person is gone, but what's left is very much the legacy," she said. "There are still concerns over the state of Canada's medical system, particularly access to primary medical care.
There's still concerns around immigration ...
and people are still pretty divided around paying carbon tax." Leadership race a chance to create buzz: Pollster Carlene Variyan, an associate vice-president at Summa Strategies and a longtime Liberal adviser, had a more optimistic take. "Trudeau's departure firmly turns the page on a chapter of the party and allows the party to move forward unencumbered into the future," she said.
"It's also a tremendous challenge in the sense that rebuilding with a new leader means shaping a brand new, entirely new campaign operation, staff, infrastructure around somebody new, and it's somebody who we don't yet know who they are." How and when the party will choose that person isn't yet clear. Neither the rules governing the leadership process nor a date have been announced.
Liberals will choose a new leader. Who are the possible candidates to replace Trudeau? Liberals say no changes coming for leadership race, despite risk of foreign interference Arnold said a leadership race might get voters to take a second look at the struggling party and create buzz. "I think if people are paying attention to a leadership race, that's better than daily stories about how the Liberals are flattened in the polls and how everyone wants Justin Trudeau to leave," he said.
"But it's not a guarantee this is going to turn things around for the Liberals. It's not a magic potion that is going to suddenly cause the Liberals to surge to first place." On Monday, former central bank governor Mark Carney said he is considering a run to replace Trudeau.
Industry Minister François-Philippe Champagne also said he's seriously considering a bid. Natural Resources Minister Jonathan Wilkinson and businessman and former Liberal MP Frank Baylis also said they intend to run. Other cabinet colleagues like Chrystia Freeland, Dominic LeBlanc, Mélanie Joly and Anita Anand are also rumoured to be interested.
Christy Clark, the former premier of British Columbia, has expressed an interest in wanting "to be part of the conversation on the future direction of the Liberal Party." Arnold said polling suggests the average Canadian can't name a cabinet minister, meaning the bulk of those lining up to run will have to fight for name recognition outside of Ottawa. "Unless Ryan Reynolds runs tomorrow for Liberal Party, there's nobody out there who is initially going to have that name recognition and appeal to turn things around," he said.
While the U.S. Democratic Party's presidential campaign was invigorated by Kamala Harris replacing Joe Biden as the nominee, that did not translate to a victory at the polls.
(Rachel Wisniewski/Reuters) Excitement and buzz also doesn't guarantee votes. Arnold pointed to U.S.
Vice-President Kamala Harris, who seemed to reinvigorate the Democratic Party after taking over late in the 2024 campaign from President Joe Biden. "Which is what the Liberals are trying to do right now," he said. "There's a surge of excitement in the polls and everyone's talking about how this is going to be a game-changer and then it slowly fades over time.
And we saw the results in November." Trudeau's successor risks being shortest-serving PM Liberals have their own moment from history they likely don't want to revisit. When Trudeau's father Pierre Elliott Trudeau took his famed walk in the snow and vacated the job, John Turner ascended, securing the Liberal leadership and becoming Canada's 17th prime minister in June 1984.
But his stay in 24 Sussex was short-lived. John Turner had the second-shortest tenure as prime minister in Canadian history after taking over from Pierre Trudeau. Justin Trudeau's successor would risk having even less time in that role.
(Ron Poling/The Canadian Press) Turner's party was suffering from years of scandals and faced Canadian voters who were ready for change. In September 1984, the Liberals suffered a massive defeat to Brian Mulroney's Progressive Conservatives. They were reduced to only 40 seats in the House of Commons Turner led Canada for 79 days — the second-shortest time in office of any prime minister and an unwanted record Justin Trudeau's successor could be at risk of beating.
Kurl said there are some provincial leaders who were able "to pull a rabbit out of the hat" after taking over — but those fates haven't played out on the federal scene. She pointed to Clark who became B.C.
premier in 2011, taking over from Gordon Campbell after a B.C. Liberal leadership race.
She lost her own seat but managed a surprise win for the party. In Ontario, Kathleen Wynne replaced Dalton McGuinty as premier and leader of the provincial Liberal Party and went on to lead them to a majority government victory in 2014. WATCH | Scheer says Liberal leadership race doesn't change anything: Scheer says Liberal leadership race doesn’t change anything 7 hours ago Duration 1:17 Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer is asked by reporters how Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s resignation affects the Conservatives' election strategy.
Scheer added that the Liberal leadership race doesn’t change what the Liberal Party is offering in terms of policies. Conservative House Leader Andrew Scheer made it clear Tuesday his party will work to paint the next Liberal leader with the same brush as Trudeau. "Canadians did not get tired of looking at Justin Trudeau's face.
It's not like they got sick of his voice. They are suffering under his policies," he told reporters. "We're going to remind Canadians of that terrible legacy no matter when the election is and who happens to be leading the party.
" That's likely to put cabinet ministers on the defensive, said Kurl. "They will have to overcome the struggle to explain how they are different when they have spent the last so many years very much inside the tent," she said. "It's the same problem Kamala Harris had.
" It's why Arnold said some Liberals with leadership ambitions might sit this round out — and wait for the political weather vane to swing in the other direction. "Even though they will be prime minister in name after this campaign, it's almost more like running for an opposition party," he said. "They might be thinking that the electoral cycle would be better for them in a couple of years, when there's a 'time for change' mood sweeping against the Conservative government.
".
