2 weeks Ago
Rohit Srivastava , Founder, Strike Money Analytics , says the selling may not be done. 23,500 is the next level that a lot of people will be watching for some potential support. It is possible to get some kind of an intraday bounce on Thursday from there, but once that breaks, we may look at 23,300 or 23,100.
Srivastava also says while we see a US market rally at this moment, we are also seeing a sell-off in various other markets. The rising dollar could be one of the direct causes that is affecting flows to various emerging markets . Acute weakness is underway.
We were hoping that there would be a bottom perhaps at 24,000 or there is going to be a bit of sideways move from 23,800 to 24,200 but now even that 200-day moving average is getting threatened. We are 10 points away from that. What is your sense, we are headed lower or at least there is a bottom in place close to these levels? Rohit Srivastava: The odds are shifting too much further decline from here, especially with the Bank Nifty joining the sell-off today.
Bank Nifty breaking 50,500 sets us up now for around 48,300 on Bank Nifty. That is a pretty significant further down move from here which will further add to the downside in the index itself. So, I do not think the selling is done.
I think 23,500 is the next level that a lot of people will be watching for some potential support. It is possible you get some kind of an intraday bounce today or tomorrow from there, but once that breaks then we may look at 23,300 or 23,100. Are you looking at buying anything right now which is looking good in terms of the correction that we have seen so far or you are just sitting on the sidelines and waiting for this entire poison to be out? Anything that looks better on a relative basis? Rohit Srivastava: No, I would rather just sit out that appears to make more sense at this moment because it is like trying to catch a falling knife and you do not know which is the next shoe to drop.
For example, you did see banking hold up for a long time, now you may point towards IT which is holding up, but we never know when that gives up as well. So, it is much better to let the poison go. We are perhaps headed for much lower levels.
What is the next level? So, 23,500 is one marker to watch out for. If we break below that, what is next for us? Are we headed much lower, another 1,000, 1,500 points slide or is it going to be a bit more shallow from here on? Rohit Srivastava: In Bank Nifty, I have given a level which is closer to 48,300. Now, what will be the impact of that on Nifty? We can think of 23,300 to 23,100 as the next set of levels.
Can we get lower than that? I will not rule it out because we are going to be trailing this entire move on the way down rather than saying that okay this is the level where it is done. As we continue to trail, then we will keep coming up with new levels. It is not going to be a particular point which is going to define okay this is where this comes to a halt.
What would you attribute this weakness to? Do you think it is more fundamental in nature or is it related to the FII flows or this is a technical pressure that was kind of building up for the markets or is it perhaps the derivative changes that we are expecting, the changes in contracts, the increase in the overall frequency and the changes that have happened with respect to the expiry week, etc? Rohit Srivastava: Many of the factors that you are outlining were building up over time. So, at the time they were building up, some of them did not have an immediate impact. Now that the markets are falling, we may try to attribute it to many of those things.
But one of the things which is happening globally and while we see a US market rally at this moment, we are actually seeing a sell-off in various other markets. That means we can see Europe selling off, parts of Asia selling off, whether it is Korea or Malaysia and so it really looks like there has been a movement out of various markets that are non-US and that is having an impact and that we can attribute to what has been a rising dollar. Stock Trading Introduction to Technical Analysis & Candlestick Theory By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading Market 104: Options Trading: Kickstart Your F&O Adventure By - Saketh R, Founder- QuickAlpha, Full Time Options Trader View Program Stock Trading Ichimoku Trading Unlocked: Expert Analysis and Strategy By - Dinesh Nagpal, Full Time Trader, Ichimoku & Trading Psychology Expert View Program Stock Trading RSI Made Easy: RSI Trading Course By - Souradeep Dey, Equity and Commodity Trader, Trainer View Program Stock Trading Commodity Markets Made Easy: Commodity Trading Course By - elearnmarkets, Financial Education by StockEdge View Program Stock Trading Market 101: An Insight into Trendlines and Momentum By - Rohit Srivastava, Founder- Indiacharts.
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