Scottish Labour falls well behind SNP after Winter Fuel Payment cut, poll suggests

Scottish Labour has fallen well behind the SNP after cutting the Winter Fuel Payment, a poll has suggested. Analysis of the Opinium survey by polling guru John Curtice for The Times showed the SNP would remain Holyrood's largest party with 47 seats. Labour would be languishing behind on 33 seats.

His analysis also suggested that Reform and the Tories would be tied for third place on 16 seats. The Greens would win nine and the Lib Dems would take eight. This would leave the SNP struggling to form a government as there would be no nationalist majority in the chamber.



But it would also be difficult for Labour to lead an administration as the unionist majority would be unstable, particularly due to the rise of Reform . Labour MPs voted earlier this month to make the Winter Fuel Payment means-tested. Curtice told the Times: “Retaining the support [Labour] won in July may not be easy,” he said.

“And its path towards winning the Holyrood election of 2026 may well be far from straightforward. “Meanwhile, all calculations about what might happen at that election could be upset if Reform can maintain the popularity they are beginning to develop north of the border. “Although on these figures there would no longer be a pro-Yes majority at Holyrood, making it impossible to pursue Indyref2, not even a deal between Labour, the Liberal Democrats and the Conservatives would provide the numbers required to give unionists control of the Holyrood chamber.

” The Opinion poll showed that Labour's support in Holyrood constituencies would fall 10 points to 25 per cent. SNP support also fell by two points to 32, but leaves them still behind the SNP. On the list, the SNP got 30 per cent, while Labour again took 25.

The Tories and Reform got 12 per cent in constituencies and the list. The Lib Dems took eight per cent in both votes, with the Greens getting seven per cent in the constituencies and eight per cent on the list. The survey of voting intentions for the next Holyrood election was carried out between Sep 5 and 11.

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