Sanctions on the Missile Program

In the context of Pakistan’s relations with the United States (US), the bad patch refuses to die down. On December 18, the US slapped sanctions primarily on Pakistan’s National Development Complex (NDC), besides three suppliers of instruments and accessories. The NDC is a state-owned enterprise responsible for making, testing and advancing the ballistic missile technology.

Targeting “proliferators of weapons of mass destruction and their means of delivery”, the sanctions will also affect Pakistan’s ability to buy the technology of Multiple Independently targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRVs) from China. A MIRV is an exo-atmospheric ballistic missile payload containing multiple warheads, each capable of hitting a different target on the itinerary from the sky to the earth. Pakistan had been relying on the Ghauri (short range) missile program until it realized that this missile flying with liquid fuel was limited in its travelling a required distance.



Hence, in March 2015, Pakistan tested Shaheen-III, a medium range ballistic missile which could be launched by a mobile transporter erector launcher. The missile was capable of flying with solid fuel to travel a distance of around 2750 kms (with nuclear payload) far more than Ghauri could travel. The sweep was astonishing: to the east, India’s Andaman Nicobar Islands situated in the north-east of the Indian Ocean, and to the west, the whole of the Middle East (ME).

The success undermined India’s second strike capability. However, in May 2016, India responded by performing a successful experiment of anti-ballistic missile known as the Ashwin Ballistic Missile Interceptor (aka the Advanced Air Defence). Europe’s Selective Outrage Pakistan had been lacking the facility to penetrate the interceptor defence shield.

Hence, in October 2023, Pakistan successfully test fired the MIRV-supported Ababeel, which was considered an improved version of Shaheen-III, in the sense of travelling a long distance (more than 2000 kms) with conventional or nuclear payload with a lightning speed and smashing the Indian ballistic missile defence shield by dropping several bombs sequentially. With the success, Pakistan achieved the target of breaching the Indian anti-ballistic missile defence shield. Now, the US has imposed sanctions, the aim of which is to stop Pakistan from manufacturing long-range inter-continental ballistic missiles (which could travel a distance of more than 6000 km), buttressed up by the MIRVs.

In such a scenario, the missile would be a formidable weapon capable of dodging the anti-missile defence shield of any country. Pakistan is faced with two choices: first, be content with the medium-range ballistic missile program; second, go ahead with the long-range ballistic missile-making ambitions, in which case be ready to face certain challenges. Mislabeling Edibles First, the announced sanctions are not akin to the sanctions imposed on Pakistan to prevent it from continuing with a nuclear weapon program in the past.

For instance, in 1976, the Symington Amendment to the Foreign Assistance Act of 1961 called for prohibitions on US economic assistance and military aid to Pakistan, if the latter was found involved in any kind of nuclear proliferation that was not governed by international safeguards set by the International Atomic Energy Agency. Similarly, in 1985, the Pressler Amendment called for stopping US economic assistance and military aid to Pakistan, if the latter possessed a nuclear explosive device. In both cases (which were Pakistan specific), Pakistan enjoyed a presidential waiver issued by the respective US presidents, just because Pakistan was siding with the US in its proxy war (1979-1989) in Afghanistan against the former Soviet Union.

That bonhomie is absent now. Estrangement rules over Pak-US relations. Wells of direct aid are almost dry.

Currently, Pakistan is not participating in a war, which could be considered necessary to fight on behalf of the US. No such opportunity is available that Pakistan could exploit in its favour to reach the target of having a long-range MIRV-equipped inter-continental ballistic missile program. Violence Continue Second, in 1998, testing nuclear weapons brought both Pakistan and India under sanctions dictated by the Glenn Amendment of 1994.

However, in September 2001, with the beginning of War on Terror, the then US President George W Bush lifted the sanctions to permit both Pakistan and India to cooperate in the war. Currently, Pakistan is not required in any international war effort, which could soften the US stance on sanctions. Nor perhaps it is possible in the foreseeable future.

Third, Pakistan is a signatory of neither the nuclear Non-proliferation Treaty (NPT) of 1968 nor any ballistic missile technology control regime. However, Pakistan knows that staying outside any globally recognized system makes a country both open to benefit and vulnerable to exploitation. Any claim for equality with other member states can be sought within a system, and not outside it.

Pakistan has been a part of no such system, which has made the country suffer. For instance, in October 2003, the network of Dr Abdul Qadeer Khan involved allegedly in nuclear proliferation was busted. This development undercut Pakistan’s credibility as a responsible nuclear warheads possessing country.

The same point offered sufficient legroom to the US to shun Pakistan and embrace India. Hence, in October 2008, the US entered into a nuclear energy deal with India (called the 123 Agreement), which was subsequently approved by the International Atomic Energy Agency, and which was seconded by the Nuclear Suppliers’ Group to allow India to have access to civilian nuclear technology and receive nuclear fuel from other countries. The 123 Agreement heralded an obvious US’ tilt towards India.

Several times, the US has ruled out any chance of replicating a similar agreement with Pakistan. Cartoon In short, slapping sanctions on the NDC is a sign of both frustration and desperation. Every country has a right to develop technology, so is Pakistan’s right.

Certainly, the US’ concern is not just India but also the ME. Obviously, the future is pregnant with interesting turn of events. Dr Qaisar Rashid The writer is a freelance columnist.

He can be reached at [email protected] Tags: sanctions missile program.