Romania to Hold Rates as Tariffs Magnify Risks

(Bloomberg) — Romania’s central bank is expected to leave interest rates unchanged for a fifth meeting as global trade tensions compound internal political and fiscal risks. The National Bank of Romania will leave the benchmark at 6.5% on Monday, according to all 10 economists in a Bloomberg survey, maintaining one of the highest borrowing costs in Europe.

Policymakers in Bucharest made some cautious easing steps last year as price growth showed signs of slowing, but then paused because of mounting uncertainties. The inflation rate is one of the highest in the European Union, coming in at 5% in February, and the recently announced tariffs of US President Donald Trump will likely add to price pressures across the bloc. The path is further clouded by Romania’s budget deficit, estimated at 7% of economic output this year, which may require additional measures such as tax increases to narrow after a presidential election re-run.



The Black Sea nation has been engulfed in an unprecedented political crisis after its top court canceled last year’s ballot following the first-round victory of a fringe candidate whose campaign triggered accusations of meddling by Russia. A new vote is scheduled for May 4 but risks linger as another far-right candidate, George Simion is leading the polls with the mainstream parties struggling to retain power. “Overall, the 2025 inflation picture remains fragile, exposed to fiscal, energy and geopolitical developments,” said Valentin Tataru, a Bucharest-based economist at ING.

The central bank will likely hold rates due to the future fiscal policy stance, “blurry outlook” for economic activity and increased risks for commodity prices, he said. —With assistance from Harumi Ichikura..