Retail sales rise unexpectedly despite Budget tax fears

Retail sales came in ahead of expectations.

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R etail sales rose unexpectedly in September , suggesting households are still splashing the cash despite fears about tax rises in the Budget. According to figures released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS), retail sales volumes rose 0.3 per cent in September.

Economists had expected sales volumes to fall 0.4 per cent. This brought the annual increase to 3.



9 per cent, the largest annual rise since February 2022. “Retail sales grew in September as tech stores reported a notable rise in sales,” ONS senior statistician Hannah Finselbach said. “These were only partially offset by a poor month for supermarkets, where retailers said bad weather and households continuing to cut back on luxury food items hit sales,” she continued.

The strongest sub-sector growth was from ‘other non-food stories’, which rose by 5.5 per cent in September. Computer and telecommunications retailers had the strongest contribution.

Supermarket sales volumes, meanwhile, fell 2.4 per cent. Comments from retailers pointed to unseasonably poor weather and consumers continuing to cut back on luxury food items.

The data suggests that consumers are still willing to spend despite fears about possible tax rises in the Budget. Surveys of consumer sentiment have taken a hit in recent weeks with many economists pointing to the impact of the Budget, which takes place at the end of this month. “While households may be concerned about possible tax rises in the Budget on 30 th October, those fears are not feeding through to their spending decisions yet,” Alex Kerr, UK economist at Capital Economics, said.

The figures continue an improving trend for retail sales, with sales growth in the quarter rising 1.9 per cent. This was the joint largest increase – shared with the quarter to March – since July 2021.

This quarterly rise was across all main sectors, the ONS said. When comparing with the same period last year, there was a 2.6 per cent rise, the largest since March 2022.

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