2 weeks Ago By BRENDEN MOORE [email protected]
SPRINGFIELD — In 2022, voters in Illinois’ 17th Congressional District sent former meteorologist Eric Sorensen to represent them in Washington. The Moline Democrat defeated Republican Esther Joy King by four percentage points in that race, considered one of the hottest congressional contests in the country. The two campaigns combined to spend nearly $8 million while national political action committees poured in another $15 million.
Two years later, Sorensen is seeking a second term against a new Republican: Joe McGraw, a retired state judge from Rockford. This time around, the 17th remained largely off the national radar. Outside PACs linked to House Democratic leadership and House Republican leadership have mostly stayed out — a signal that the parties do not view the race as competitive as it was the last time.
Non-partisan political handicapper Cook Political Report rates the district as “likely Democratic.” But, as happens with the weather at times, McGraw believes such forecasts are off, predicting that voters in the blue collar district have buyer’s remorse and, on Election Day, will send Sorensen packing. "My polling, my unscientific polling, comes across the kitchen table from looking in the eyes of the folks that talk to me, listening to their voices, listening to their concerns," McGraw told Lee Enterprises in an interview.
"And they don't feel that Sorenson has represented them. They feel that he's a Washington elitist who has forgotten what it's like to live paycheck to paycheck." But Sorensen, who never held elected office prior to winning in 2022, said that assessment was off the mark, maintaining that he still has a pulse on his constituents’ needs and should be returned for a second term.
"I don't have means — I worked in small market television," Sorensen said. "I'm still paying off credit cards. I know what that means when the price of eggs goes up or the price of gas goes up.
I know what it means for people. “But then also, I've just served the people in a different way for 20 years by keeping people ahead of what was next,” he said, referencing his time as an on-air meteorologist in the Quad Cities and Rockford. “And now it is preparing the next generation for what we're going to give them.
And having somebody in Congress that doesn't have a background in politics, that didn't have a letter after their name until two years ago, there is value in that.” Both candidates have sought to portray themselves as commonsense moderates in touch with the middle-of-the-road sensibilities of the labor- and agriculture-heavy district. But in the hyper-polarized political climate in which nearly all elections have been nationalized, each has sought to position the other on the outside of the mainstream and in line with the most extreme elements of their respective parties.
The results of the contest could have an impact far beyond the corn and soybean fields of central and northwestern Illinois. Preeminently, control of the U.S.
House, where Republicans are defending a narrow 220-212 majority, could hang in the balance. The district When Springfield Democrats in charge of redistricting drew up the state's new congressional map in 2021, one goal was clear: shore up the party's standing in the 17th, which included many of the urban centers in northwest Illinois, such as Rockford, the Quad Cities and Peoria. The downstate district had been trending Republican, voting for former President Donald Trump in both 2016 and 2020.
In the latter, incumbent Democratic Rep. Cheri Bustos won reelection by just four percentage points. Map drawers added Bloomington-Normal and Democratic-trending precincts on the outskirts of Peoria and Rockford, while subtracting some Republican-leaning rural precincts.
As a result, the district shifted from a marginal Trump district to one that voted for President Joe Biden by eight percentage points. Despite Republicans making a significant play for the seat in 2022, Sorensen won by just over 9,000 votes out of more than 233,000 cast. His win cemented Illinois’ 14-3 Democratic majority congressional delegation, the intended outcome from the gerrymandered map.
The choice Sorensen, 48, was a television meteorologist for more than two decades. He briefly worked in communications for UnityPoint Health before announcing his run for office in 2022. He is the first openly LBGTQ+ person to represent Illinois in Congress.
McGraw, 69, served as a judge in the 17th Judicial Circuit, which covers Boone and Winnebago counties, for more than two decades until retiring in 2023, including as chief judge from 2012 to 2017. He was also the presiding judge over the criminal division from 2004 until his retirement. The lived experiences of the candidates have been reflected in their campaigns.
For Sorensen, this means talking about the effects of climate change. While it is a challenge, he said there are unique opportunities for the 17th to benefit from the green economy, such as the potential for greater electric vehicle production at Rivian's Normal plant. He said farmers will benefit from year-round sales of biofuels like E-15 and production of sustainable aviation fuel.
“Being the only meteorologist in Congress, we have a climate crisis,” Sorensen said. “And still, people in power, they want more coal power plants, they want to pump more oil and they want an end to the EV industry, which would put 9,000 people out of a job here in McLean County at that Rivian plant. We have to say no (to that).
” McGraw’s campaign, on the other hand, has leaned heavily into law-and-order themes, especially on the issue of border security. The former judge said that he would advocate for a return to the "Remain in Mexico" policy, which required asylum seekers arriving at the southern border to stay in Mexico until their immigration court date. He would also advocate for continuing to build the border wall championed by former President Donald Trump.
“We can't afford to keep having more and more illegals in our country,” McGraw said. “Illinois alone has spent over a billion dollars on illegals — money we don't have to spend. We have infrastructure and economic projects that need that money, veterans that need that money.
The list goes on and on.” McGraw said he saw the effect of the crisis at the border in his courtroom in cases dealing with fentanyl, a synthetic opioid that is 50 to 100 times stronger than morphine. Users often do not know they are purchasing drugs laced with the potent substance, leading to many overdose deaths.
Many of the drugs fueling America's addiction come over via the southern border. Sorensen said he agreed with the need to secure the border as part of a comprehensive immigration reform package. He also said more technology is needed to be able to detect fentanyl that is being smuggled through.
The incumbent's campaign has has been a mix of "all politics is local" and some of the universal themes of Democratic campaigns across the country. Locally, Sorensen is highlighting what incumbents typically highlight in reelection campaigns: the delivery of funds for infrastructure projects in the district, such as for upgrades to locks along the Mississippi River and fixes to various roads, bridges and water and sewer systems. But Sorensen, like most Democrats running for office, has also centered his support for abortion rights.
He said he supports codifying Roe v. Wade into law, which would permit abortion nationally up until viability. McGraw, though personally anti-abortion, said that the federal government should stay out of abortion policy and allow states like Illinois and Iowa to enact their own legislation.
"I am not in favor of a national ban," McGraw said. "Leave it in the hands of the states where the decisionmakers are closer to the people and they can craft the policy that best fits their constituents wishes and values." As a retired judge, McGraw said he has been frustrated with the lack of legislating done by Congress.
He said it is a bipartisan problem that has allowed federal agencies to fill the void. "They've delegated by default more and more decision-making to the regulatory agencies," McGraw said. "They're supposed to be rule makers, not lawmakers.
" Sorensen said that one of his first priorities if reelected will be to get a Farm Bill passed. The once-every-five-year omnibus bill contains provisions crucial to farmers, such as the crop insurance program, though the vast majority of the funds spent in the bill go towards SNAP, which serves about 41 million Americans per month. A permanent extension has been stalled for more than a year.
What they're saying In paid advertisements, Sorensen has sought to poke holes in McGraw's tough-on-crime image. In one ad, he highlighted McGraw's 2011 sentence of probation to a man who pleaded guilty to child pornography possession. McGraw's sentence was the result of a negotiated plea deal between the prosecution and defense.
He called the ad "deceptive." Though it should be noted that judges have the authority to reject plea deals. On the other hand, McGraw had run an ad touting his record as a "tough on crime judge" while claiming that "Washington politicians coddle criminals and blame victims.
He said "it's why crime is soaring in Illinois" while criminals are "released on cashless bail," the latter a reference to the Pretrial Fairness Act, a provision in the larger SAFE-T Act that eliminated cash bail in Illinois. However, data shows that violent crime and property crime were actually down in Illinois during the first six months of 2024 compared with 2023, before cash bail was eliminated. The National Republican Congressional Committee, the campaign arm for the House GOP, went up with a separate digital ad attacking Sorensen on culture war topics, including his support for youth drag shows.
The ad also alleged that Sorensen supports "exposing minors to life-altering sex changes." Though the group put no money behind the ad, it continued a trend of Republicans attempting to portray Sorensen, one of just a handful of openly LGBTQ+ members of Congress, as out of step with his district. Sorensen, however, dismissed the attacks as distractions.
"They can't communicate that I'm a partisan person because I'm bipartisan," Sorensen said. "They can't communicate that on this crazy left wing liberal or I'm a Green New Deal meteorologist because no, I'm working in the middle. And so the only thing that they have is these culture war wedge issues.
" According to campaign finance data, Sorensen has raised more than $4.7 million this election cycle compared with McGraw's $1.39 million.
As of Oct. 1, the incumbent had a 4-to-1 advantage in cash on hand, allowing him to significantly outspend McGraw on television, radio and digital advertisements. Early voting has been underway since late September.
Election Day is Nov. 5. Sorensen McGraw Contact Brenden Moore at brenden.
[email protected] . Follow him on Twitter: @brendenmoore13 Get Government & Politics updates in your inbox! Stay up-to-date on the latest in local and national government and political topics with our newsletter.
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