1 week Ago By Saleem Qamar Butt
In the last four columns published in a series, a reappraisal of the historical context leading to the current tumultuous situation in the Middle East was undertaken. The purpose was to draw relevant lessons for global peace in general and for the Muslim world in particular. Apropos, it is an embarrassing admission that since the dissolution of the Ottoman Khilafat, the Middle East, along with other Muslim countries all over the globe, has remained subjected to predatory political, economic, military, and intelligence exploitation by the American-led Western economic and security architecture.
Needless to say, the enemies of Islam will never cease to hollow out and undermine Muslims all over the world in every possible way, as a continuation of ancient brutal ‘wars of religions and civilisations’. However, the global Muslim community, divided and exposed on multiple fault lines—especially due to the interstate and intrastate sectarian split—is more to blame for being on the anvil under the common foes’ hammer. While the OIC, Arab League, OPEC, and all economically and militarily strong Muslim countries have remained inert bystanders, what good then could one expect from the UN or ICJ? Tariffs & Tantrums The following important conclusions and lessons can be drawn from the above study.
The revolving door to the Middle East and the ongoing Israel-US joint efforts, supported by the old colonial actors, to eliminate Palestinians from Gaza and subsequently from the West Bank regions—and their envisaged relocation to other Arab countries with the realisation of the Zionist dream of Greater Israel—is no more fiction, but a reality. The unabated genocide of Palestinians and annexation of Palestinian, Syrian, Egyptian, Lebanese and Jordanian lands and resources by Israel, with total support from the USA/allies, and the historical and inherent but controversial push-and-pull strategies adopted by the Arab States, Iran and Türkiye fall into place within the above-stated background; sadly, respective national interests supersede all human, moral and collective religious obligations. Talks, Not Threats The civil war in Yemen is widely regarded as part of the Iran-Saudi proxy conflict.
Iran formed an anti-Israel “Axis of Resistance” with Hamas, Hezbollah, Syria, and Yemeni Houthis. Iran and Israel have launched sporadic air force, missile, and drone strikes at each other without any significant damage to either. Bravely or unwisely, the Houthis attacked shipping in the Red Sea, leading to a US-led military response—which was as imprudent as Hamas’ attack on Israel on 7 October 2023 (keeping in view the joint American-Israeli-British retaliation capabilities that have resulted in the greatest genocide of Palestinian Muslims and the complete destruction of the Gaza region).
As for Syria, the fall of the Assad regime was driven by a combination of internal and external factors that reached a critical point towards the end of 2024. Key external factors included Israel’s desire to capitalise on developments in Gaza and Lebanon to minimise Iran’s influence in Syria, as well as the situation of the Russian Federation, which—being engaged in the conflict in Ukraine—was unwilling to intensify its military support for Bashar al-Assad, thereby accepting his departure within a broader geopolitical context. Burning Reality Alongside foreign military presences—Russia and Iran being crucial in securing strategic areas in Syria—the Assad regime also established local paramilitary formations such as the Shabiha (“ghosts”), primarily composed of Alawite minorities who maintained control, especially along the coast where their population was significant.
To survive, the regime employed all available means—from airstrikes using fragmentation bombs to chemical weapons. Prisons became overcrowded with opposition members detained for the slightest act of defiance. From a demographic perspective, the war in Syria was catastrophic, causing over 500,000 deaths, more than 6 million external refugees, and around 4 million internally displaced persons.
Between 2011 and 2023, the Syrian economy shrank by 85%. The regime survived largely due to Iranian support, estimated at $2–6 billion annually. Another financial lifeline for Syria was the production of ‘Captagon’, an illicit drug known as the “jihad drug,” generating over $10 billion for the Assad regime.
In late November 2024, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—Organisation for the Liberation of the Levant, which controlled Syria’s north-western Idlib region—launched an offensive against key strategic points, capturing Aleppo within days, followed by Hama, Homs, and finally Damascus. Cartoon Syria’s situation remains highly complex and open to various possibilities. The new government will have to tackle a deepening economic and social crisis while preventing a descent into factional conflict reminiscent of Lebanon’s historical turmoil.
Syria’s developments will shape new regional and global power balances, potentially becoming the new litmus test for Middle Eastern and even global geopolitics. It can be fairly concluded that the regime change in Syria was linked to the changes underway in the Washington administration, in order to align with the new intentions of the Trump administration in the Middle East—with Syria potentially playing an important role in the security architecture envisioned by the new American administration for the region. From the developments in the Middle East—and especially from the Syrian debacle—there are quite a few similarities and relevant lessons for Pakistan, which need comprehensive and serious analysis.
A Nuanced Approach In pursuit of lingering strategic interests, for the expansion of the strategic sphere of influence and for control of precious natural resources and to checkmate China and Russia, the USA is once again going to shift focus to EURASIA, with eyes on potential nuclear Iran, nuclear Pakistan, and historic quarry and launchpad Afghanistan (with the re-emergence of IS-K and taking back American left-behind military assets as an excuse); and with the same old unenviable role envisaged for Pakistan—without any change in the darker side of the Great Game. Therefore, the people at the helm of affairs in Pakistan will have to tread very cautiously on all fronts—including economic (loans, grants, any agreements on hydrocarbons and precious rare earth metals excavations)—and avoid any military cooperation that may embroil Pakistan in greater complications. It goes without saying that Pakistan is already confronted with multiple challenges like the resurgence of the worst terrorism, poor law and order situation, anaemic economy, polemic judicial system, and a lame-duck political system; hence, it cannot afford to fall prey to the same old ominous role with unaffordable fallout.
Therefore, all national decisions need to be analysed beforehand, keeping in view the prevailing domestic and regional developments, as well as the strategic decisions taken in the last five decades. The proverbial truth of “United we stand, divided we fall” stands vindicated by the predicament of Muslims since the disintegration of the Ottoman Khilafat. Besides other relatively minor differences among the Muslim societies and states, the historical politico-economic tussle transformed into an ideological and sectarian split—as evidenced from the ‘KSA-led Sunni bloc’ and ‘Iran-led Shia bloc’—has actually been exploited to the hilt by the enemies of Islam.
Hence, the criticality and inevitability of reconciliation between KSA and Iran at the OIC level or at any other bilateral or multilateral forums. Without any further delay, the OIC needs to create a strong military alliance like NATO to shield against any aggression (with commonality of interests with the SCO security bloc and CSTO), in which Pakistan can play the lead role; and an effective global Islamic economic structure. With military and economic capability grown and matured, the OIC should then seek to acquire a status akin to the UN and all its organs, as well as the ICJ.
Saleem Qamar Butt The writer is a retired senior army officer with experience in international relations, military diplomacy and analysis of geo-political and strategic security issues. Tags: evolving middle east conclusions.
