Record-setting Oscar turns into stormy surprise: ‘a colossal failure in hurricane forecasting’

HAVANA (AP) — Tropical Storm Oscar dumped heavy rain across eastern Cuba on Monday after making landfall as a Category 1 hurricane on the island already beleaguered by a massive power outage. Its maximum sustained winds blew at 40 mph (65 kph) on Monday as Oscar moved north-northwest at 7 mph (11 kph). The storm was located about 80 miles (130 kilometers) northwest of Guantánamo, Cuba, the U.

S. National Hurricane Center in Miami said. Up to 14 inches (36 centimeters) of rain were forecast across eastern Cuba, with isolated amounts of up to 20 inches (about 50 centimeters).



“The main concern is just very heavy rainfall that’s occurring over portions of eastern Cuba right now that are likely producing significant flooding and even potentially some mudslides in that area,” said Philippe Papin, a hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. Oscar is the smallest hurricane on record, with a wind field of only about six miles (10 kilometers) across, according to hurricane specialist and storm surge expert Michael Lowry. He noted that not a single forecast model indicated that Oscar might strengthen into a hurricane on Saturday before making landfall in the Bahamas.

“It’s not often we see a colossal failure in hurricane forecasting,” he wrote in an analysis published Monday. Oscar made landfall in the eastern Cuban province of Guantanamo, near the city of Baracoa, on Sunday evening with winds of 75 mph (120 kph). The storm had also made landfall on Saturday on Great Inagua in the Bahamas, where residents were evacuated after their homes were damaged.

Rain and flooding in low-lying areas were reported in Cuba’s eastern provinces. Cuban media said 2-meter (6.5-feet) swells were hitting the coast and that roofs and walls in Baracoa had been damaged.

This graphic shows an approximate representation of coastal areas under a hurricane warning (red), hurricane watch (pink), tropical storm warning (blue) and tropical storm watch (yellow). National Hurricane Center The storm is expected to emerge off Cuba’s northern coast late Monday and move near the southeastern and central Bahamas on Tuesday, U.S.

forecasters said. A tropical storm warning was in effect for the north coast of the Cuban provinces of Las Tunas, Holguin, and Guantanamo to Punta Maisi; for the south coast of Guantánamo province; and for the southeastern Bahamas. A warning also was in effect for the central Bahamas.

Cuba suffered an island-wide power blackout Friday. Some electrical service was restored Saturday, but most residents remain without power. The country’s energy minister expressed hope that the grid could be restored Monday or Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Kristy formed off Mexico’s southern Pacific coast on Monday, but it was not expected to pose a threat to land. The storm was located 275 miles (440 kilometers) south-southwest of Acapulco and was moving west at 17 mph (28 kph). It had sustained winds of 40 mph (65 kph), according to the National Hurricane Center.

Kristy was forecast to strengthen into a hurricane Wednesday but continue moving over open waters. Associated Press reporter Julie Walker in New York contributed to this report. Weather reports Hurricane Oscar hits Cuba, already suffering without power For damaged North Carolina wineries, there are no harvest celebrations to be found Florida man charged after tying dog to pole in flood before evacuating Will central Pa.

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