2 weeks Ago By Ryan Anderson, LAFB Network
The Los Angeles Rams found themselves in a precarious position ahead of their Thursday Night Football game against the Minnesota Vikings . In short, that win kept the team’s playoff hopes alive (and could have saved the team ). Before the team won two consecutive games, their chances of making the playoffs were just 17 percent with a 15 percent chance of winning the NFC West according to The Athletic’s NFL playoff projections .
Los Angeles Rams Playoff Chances After beating the Vikings in SoFi, this has jumped to 40 percent with a 35 percent chance of winning the division. Both of these numbers are currently the highest among the four NFC West teams. The San Francisco 49ers are given the next best odds of taking the division with 28 percent, followed by the Seattle Seahawks (19%) and Arizona Cardinals (18%).
Although this shift is dramatic, these projections don’t see a 2023-like run into the playoffs. The Rams currently have the ninth-best odds among NFC teams to make the playoffs. Meaning, that if they don’t win the division, they will be on the outside looking in the playoff window.
They are behind the Lions, Eagles, Vikings, Falcons, Packers, Commanders, Bears, and Buccaneers. This projection also sees the Rams finishing the year 9-8, meaning they are expected to lose four more games. These odds will increase dramatically depending on the outcome of the Seahawks/Bills and the 49ers/Cowboys matchups.
Looking at the remaining schedule is neither a murderer’s row nor filled with cupcakes. Six of their remaining 10 games fall within 5 points of a 50 percent win probability. The Rams are clear favorites against the Patriots, Seahawks, and Cardinals and are big underdogs against only the 49ers.
Their next game against the Seahawks is split 50/50 when it comes to win probability. The Athletic’s Methodology Methodology The Athletic created an offensive and defensive projection for every NFL team from a linear regression model that incorporates various metrics, such as Expected Points Added and Success Rate. These projections estimate how many points each team would be expected to score and allow in a game against an average opponent at a neutral site.
We then assign a probability of how likely a team is to win a given game by adjusting for opponent and location. Taking into account each team’s current record, health and remaining schedule, we use these game-by-game projections to simulate the rest of the season (including the playoffs) 100,000 times. This article first appeared on LAFB Network and was syndicated with permission.
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