15 hours Ago
Ask any lifelong New Englander about winters from their childhood and they’ll likely share stories from a season that always seemed reliably long, cold and snowy. These days, however, they’ll tell you that winters aren’t what they used to be. They’re not as predictable, with warmer-than-average temperatures and a declining snowpack in some areas, and they can bring significant flooding events like the one New Hampshire experienced in December 2023, when a combination of melting snow and heavy rain damaged roads and infrastructure and left residents trapped in their homes.
The changing winter pattern will now be the focus of research by the Judd Gregg Meteorology Institute at Plymouth State University, which has received a two-year, $192,000 federal grant from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration to study seasonal snowpack trends and develop a first-of-its-kind Snow Drought Index that will be similar to the existing U.S. Drought Monitor, which provides critical drought information and features a map that’s updated weekly to show the location and intensity of drought conditions across the country.
Dr. Eric Kelsey, a PSU research associate professor, and graduate student David Zywiczynski have teamed up to gather and analyze Northeast snowpack data spanning nearly 100 years. Their research is expected to create a better understanding of climate change impacts in the region as they relate to winter precipitation and the development of the Snow Drought Index and other tools to be used by NOAA, the National Weather Service, and the National Integrated Drought Information System and others for modeling and forecasting.
While various organizations have been measuring snow depth and its water equivalent for many decades, Kelsey said it’s never really been analyzed to create an observational baseline for a historical perspective of present-day snowpack conditions. “We will finally, at the end of this project, be able to put into context just how much snow is on the ground compared to the recent past and be able to assess how it has changed in recent years in light of a warming climate. No doubt there will be places that are seeing less snow on the ground and for a shorter period of time, but there might be places especially in the northern part of the Northeast where you might actually see the opposite.
I don’t necessarily expect to see an across the board decline, but that’s why we need to do the analysis to see what exactly is going on everywhere,” Kelsey said. The university will collaborate with other institutions, including the Northeast Regional Climate Center at Cornell University, which oversees the grant, and the National Weather Service. The work is expected to be completed by April 2026.
Once developed, the Snow Drought Index will make it easier to assess the snow on the ground at any given moment to see if it’s below normal and setting the stage for a future drought, especially during the spring when groundwater and reservoirs are typically replenished, Kelsey said. “If we don’t have much snow on the ground then obviously those things can’t be replenished and we set ourselves up for drought as we head into longer days, more sunshine, more evaporation and transpiration. Decision makers at the Weather Service could issue appropriate advisories, warnings, etc.
, so that local and state officials can do what they need to do for the safety of people,” he said. The Snow Drought Index will be helpful to municipalities, those involved in drought, flood and water resource management, and people who live in flood-prone areas and use private well water. Since New Hampshire’s economy relies on the ski industry, snowmobiling and other winter recreation, Kelsey said businesses will also be looking at the trends provided by the data.
“They know that it’s harder and harder here to get enough snow from the sky and there just aren’t as many cold days to make snow as well. Those are dwindling so it’ll be good for them to be able to see exactly what the trends look like, and that will help them plan for the next 10 to 30 years in terms of figuring out if they should invest in a new snow making system or make another snowmaking pond,” he said. Zywiczynski, who lives near Buffalo, N.
Y., and has experienced intense lake effect snow events, said he began some initial work over the summer and is looking forward to continuing his research. “Snowpack is critical when it comes to hydrology, ecosystems and the economy of the northeastern United States.
This is a very important project, and just being able to give back and potentially produce something, that to me is the most rewarding and exciting part of the project,” he said. While he’s conducting his research from PSU, Zywiczynski has seen changes in winter patterns in his home state as well. He said that oftentimes, after a significant lake effect snow event, the snow would stick around, but he’s noticed that appears to be changing.
“We don’t really get that anymore. For example, we just had a foot and a half last Friday and it’s almost all gone already. It just keeps melting.
It doesn’t stay. It never really lasts more than a week I would say,” he said..
